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基于心理健康维度的农村老年人健康预期寿命测算——多状态马尔科夫模型

王重建 胡泽 江凤 刘晓田 李润鑫

王重建, 胡泽, 江凤, 刘晓田, 李润鑫. 基于心理健康维度的农村老年人健康预期寿命测算——多状态马尔科夫模型[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(3): 298-302. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.008
引用本文: 王重建, 胡泽, 江凤, 刘晓田, 李润鑫. 基于心理健康维度的农村老年人健康预期寿命测算——多状态马尔科夫模型[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(3): 298-302. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.008
WANG Chongjian, HU Ze, JIANG Feng, LIU Xiaotian, LI Runxin. Healthy life expectancy for rural older population based on mental health: multistate Markov modeling[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(3): 298-302. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.008
Citation: WANG Chongjian, HU Ze, JIANG Feng, LIU Xiaotian, LI Runxin. Healthy life expectancy for rural older population based on mental health: multistate Markov modeling[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(3): 298-302. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.008

基于心理健康维度的农村老年人健康预期寿命测算——多状态马尔科夫模型

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.008
基金项目: 

河南省哲学社会科学规划项目 2020BSH018

国家重点研发计划 2016YFC0900803

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    王重建,E-mail:tjwcj2008@zzu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: R195.3

Healthy life expectancy for rural older population based on mental health: multistate Markov modeling

Funds: 

Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project of Henan Province 2020BSH018

National Key Program of Research and Development of China 2016YFC0900803

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的  评估农村老年人基于心理维度的预期寿命(life expectancy, LE)和健康预期寿命(healthy life expectancy, HLE),以便提出延长农村老年人LE和HLE的对策建议。  方法  基于“河南农村队列”基线和随访调查数据,通过多状态寿命表法分年龄性别计算农村≥60岁老年人群的LE和HLE。所计算的HLE指标包括无抑郁或焦虑症状预期寿命(depression-or anxiety-free life expectancy, DAFLE)、无抑郁症状预期寿命(depression-free life expectancy, DFLE)和无焦虑症状预期寿命(anxiety-free life expectancy, AFLE)。  结果  60岁总人群的DAFLE、DFLE和AFLE分别为20.081 5岁、20.230 1岁和20.435 2岁,分别占LE的95.85%、96.28%和96.99%;60岁男性的DAFLE、DFLE和AFLE分别为18.076 8岁、18.012 8岁和18.166 5岁,分别占LE的96.70%、97.10%和97.41%;60岁女性的DAFLE、DFLE和AFLE分别为22.811 6岁、23.325 3岁和23.492 2岁,分别占LE的95.33%、95.59%和96.57%。  结论  农村老年女性HLE/LE值低于男性,提示抑郁症状和焦虑症状对女性生命质量的影响大于男性。
  • 图  1  不同健康状态间的转换模式

    Figure  1.  Transitions pattern between different health states

    表  1  研究对象的一般人口学特征

    Table  1.   Demographic characteristics of the participants

    变量Variable 男性 Men
    (n=4 111)
    女性 Women
    (n=4 971)
    P
    value
    年龄/岁Age /years 67.09(4.86) 66.67(4.85) < 0.001
    抑郁症状Depression symptom < 0.001
      无Yes 3 905(94.99) 4 571(91.95)
      有No 206(5.01) 400(8.05)
    焦虑症状Anxiety symptom < 0.001
      无Yes 3 955(96.21) 4 605(92.64)
      有No 156(3.79) 366(7.36)
    注:①以人数(占比/%)或M(P25P75)表示。
    Note: ① Number of people (proportion/%) or M(P25P75).
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  不同性别、年龄人群的LE、DAFLE及其相关指标

    Table  2.   LE, DAFLE and related indicators in defferent gender and age

    年龄/岁
    Age/years
    总人群Total 男性Men 女性Women
    LE/岁
    years
    DAFLE/岁
    years
    DAFLE/LE/% LE/岁
    years
    DAFLE/岁
    years
    DAFLE/LE/% LE/岁
    years
    DAFLE/岁
    years
    DAFLE/LE/%
    60 20.951 0 20.081 5 95.85 18.693 3 18.076 8 96.70 23.929 4 22.811 6 95.33
    61 20.142 5 19.366 8 96.15 17.911 5 17.391 5 97.10 23.094 6 22.081 3 95.61
    62 19.332 8 18.588 1 96.15 17.135 5 16.640 9 97.11 22.250 7 21.277 2 95.62
    63 18.534 0 17.817 5 96.13 16.372 9 15.900 2 97.11 21.415 3 20.478 5 95.63
    64 17.747 4 17.058 6 96.12 15.624 4 15.173 2 97.11 20.589 8 19.689 1 95.63
    65 16.973 5 16.312 2 96.10 14.890 7 14.460 6 97.11 19.774 6 18.909 7 95.63
    66 16.213 2 15.579 0 96.09 14.172 5 13.763 0 97.11 18.970 6 18.141 0 95.63
    67 15.467 0 14.859 6 96.07 13.470 4 13.081 1 97.11 18.178 4 17.383 5 95.63
    68 14.735 7 14.154 7 96.06 12.785 1 12.415 4 97.11 17.398 7 16.637 9 95.63
    69 14.019 9 13.464 9 96.04 12.117 0 11.766 5 97.11 16.632 1 15.904 9 95.63
    70 13.320 4 12.790 8 96.02 11.466 8 11.135 0 97.11 15.879 4 15.185 1 95.63
    71 12.637 6 12.133 1 96.01 10.835 1 10.521 3 97.10 15.141 1 14.479 1 95.63
    72 11.972 3 11.492 3 95.99 10.222 2 9.926 0 97.10 14.418 0 13.787 6 95.63
    73 11.325 0 10.868 9 95.97 9.628 7 9.349 5 97.10 13.710 7 13.111 2 95.63
    74 10.696 3 10.263 6 95.95 9.054 9 8.792 2 97.10 13.019 9 12.450 5 95.63
    75 10.086 5 9.676 6 95.94 8.501 2 8.254 4 97.10 12.346 1 11.806 1 95.63
    76 9.496 3 9.108 5 95.92 7.967 9 7.736 4 97.09 11.689 9 11.178 6 95.63
    77 8.925 9 8.559 7 95.90 7.455 2 7.238 4 97.09 11.051 9 10.568 4 95.63
    78 8.375 8 8.030 4 95.88 6.963 4 6.760 6 97.09 10.432 5 9.976 0 95.62
    79 7.846 2 7.521 0 95.85 6.492 4 6.303 0 97.08 9.832 4 9.402 0 95.62
    注:LE,预期寿命;DAFLE,无抑郁或焦虑症状预期寿命。
    Note: LE, life expectancy; DAFLE,depression-or anxiety-free life expectancy.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  不同性别、年龄人群的LE、DFLE及其相关指标

    Table  3.   LE, DFLE and related indicators in defferent gender and age

    年龄/岁
    Age/years
    总人群Total 男性Men 女性Women
    LE/岁
    years
    DFLE/岁
    years
    DFLE/LE/% LE/岁
    years
    DFLE/岁
    years
    DFLE/LE/% LE/岁
    years
    DFLE/岁
    years
    DFLE/LE/%
    60 21.011 7 20.230 1 96.28 18.550 5 18.012 8 97.10 24.402 1 23.325 3 95.59
    61 20.215 8 19.542 9 96.67 17.783 2 17.351 3 97.57 23.580 5 22.619 3 95.92
    62 19.405 9 18.758 3 96.66 17.013 2 16.599 2 97.57 22.735 0 21.805 7 95.91
    63 18.607 3 17.983 8 96.65 16.256 7 15.859 5 97.56 21.898 4 20.999 9 95.90
    64 17.821 1 17.221 3 96.63 15.514 8 15.133 9 97.55 21.071 7 20.203 8 95.88
    65 17.047 7 16.471 5 96.62 14.787 8 14.423 2 97.53 20.255 5 19.417 9 95.86
    66 16.287 9 15.735 0 96.61 14.076 5 13.727 9 97.52 19.450 3 18.642 8 95.85
    67 15.542 4 15.012 4 96.59 13.381 5 13.048 5 97.51 18.656 8 17.879 1 95.83
    68 14.811 7 14.304 3 96.57 12.703 2 12.385 6 97.50 17.875 5 17.127 4 95.81
    69 14.096 4 13.611 3 96.56 12.042 3 11.739 7 97.49 17.107 1 16.388 2 95.80
    70 13.397 3 12.934 1 96.54 11.399 2 11.111 4 97.47 16.352 2 15.662 1 95.78
    71 12.714 9 12.273 2 96.53 10.774 5 10.501 0 97.46 15.611 4 14.949 8 95.76
    72 12.049 8 11.629 1 96.51 10.168 6 9.909 1 97.45 14.885 4 14.251 7 95.74
    73 11.402 5 11.002 4 96.49 9.581 9 9.336 1 97.43 14.174 7 13.568 6 95.72
    74 10.773 5 10.393 6 96.47 9.014 8 8.782 2 97.42 13.479 8 12.900 9 95.70
    75 10.163 5 9.803 2 96.45 8.467 6 8.247 8 97.41 12.801 5 12.249 1 95.68
    76 9.572 7 9.231 5 96.44 7.940 5 7.733 2 97.39 12.140 2 11.613 9 95.66
    77 9.001 6 8.679 0 96.42 7.433 7 7.238 5 97.37 11.496 5 10.995 7 95.64
    78 8.450 5 8.145 9 96.40 6.947 5 6.763 8 97.36 10.870 9 10.395 0 95.62
    79 7.919 8 7.632 6 96.37 6.481 8 6.309 3 97.34 10.263 8 9.812 2 95.60
    注:LE,预期寿命;DFLE,无抑郁症状预期寿命。
    Note: LE, life expectancy; DFLE,depression-free life expectancy.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  不同性别、年龄人群的LE、AFLE及其相关指标

    Table  4.   LE, AFLE and related indicators in defferent gender and age

    年龄/岁
    Age/years
    总人群Total 男性Men 女性Women
    LE/岁
    years
    AFLE/岁
    years
    AFLE/LE/% LE/岁
    years
    AFLE/岁
    years
    AFLE/LE/% LE/岁
    years
    AFLE/岁
    years
    AFLE/LE/%
    60 21.070 1 20.435 2 96.99 18.649 1 18.166 5 97.41 24.326 3 23.492 2 96.57
    61 20.253 7 19.648 9 97.01 17.874 8 17.413 8 97.42 23.477 3 22.678 6 96.60
    62 19.448 8 18.873 0 97.04 17.113 6 16.673 6 97.43 22.637 3 21.872 9 96.62
    63 18.656 1 18.108 2 97.06 16.366 0 15.946 3 97.44 21.806 7 21.075 9 96.65
    64 17.876 1 17.355 1 97.09 15.632 7 15.232 6 97.44 20.986 3 20.288 0 96.67
    65 17.109 4 16.614 4 97.11 14.914 3 14.533 2 97.44 20.176 5 19.509 9 96.70
    66 16.356 6 15.886 6 97.13 14.211 2 13.848 5 97.45 19.378 0 18.742 2 96.72
    67 15.618 3 15.172 3 97.14 13.524 2 13.179 1 97.45 18.591 3 17.985 4 96.74
    68 14.895 2 14.472 2 97.16 12.853 6 12.525 6 97.45 17.817 2 17.240 2 96.76
    69 14.187 7 13.786 8 97.17 12.200 1 11.888 5 97.45 17.056 1 16.507 3 96.78
    70 13.496 5 13.116 8 97.19 11.564 1 11.268 2 97.44 16.308 7 15.787 1 96.80
    71 12.822 1 12.462 6 97.20 10.946 1 10.665 4 97.43 15.575 7 15.080 3 96.82
    72 12.165 0 11.824 9 97.20 10.346 5 10.080 2 97.43 14.857 5 14.387 4 96.84
    73 11.525 7 11.204 0 97.21 9.765 7 9.513 2 97.42 14.154 8 13.709 2 96.85
    74 10.904 7 10.600 6 97.21 9.203 9 8.964 8 97.40 13.468 1 13.046 1 96.87
    75 10.302 4 10.015 0 97.21 8.661 6 8.435 0 97.38 12.798 0 12.398 7 96.88
    76 9.719 1 9.447 6 97.21 8.138 8 7.924 4 97.36 12.145 0 11.767 4 96.89
    77 9.155 2 8.898 9 97.20 7.635 9 7.432 9 97.34 11.509 6 11.152 9 96.90
    78 8.611 1 8.369 0 97.19 7.152 9 6.960 8 97.31 10.892 2 10.555 6 96.91
    79 8.086 8 7.858 2 97.17 6.689 8 6.508 1 97.28 10.293 2 9.975 8 96.92
    注:LE,预期寿命;AFLE,无焦虑症状预期寿命。
    Note: LE, life expectancy; AFLE,anxiety-free life expectancy.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2023-09-28
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  • 刊出日期:  2024-03-10

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