Joinpoint regression analysis of road traffic injuries tendency in China from 1997 to 2016
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摘要:
目的 分析1997-2016年中国道路交通伤害的变化趋势，探讨主要的影响因素，为防制决策提供参考。 方法 数据来自国家数据网站，采用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.6.0.0计算道路交通事故起数，死、伤人数的年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC）和平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change，AAPC），并进行趋势检验。 结果 各指标总体变化趋势基本一致，均在2002年达到最高点，此后下降趋势有所不同，2009年后趋于平缓。但预测表明，事故致死性近年内略有上升。就不同道路交通方式而言，机动车伤害仅事故起数平均年度降幅有统计学意义（AAPC=-1.83，Z=-2.23，P=0.026）；非机动车伤害致死人数平均年度降幅有统计学意义（AAPC=-1.98，Z=-2.47，P=0.014），但受伤人数却呈明显的上升趋势（AAPC=3.95，Z=5.16，P < 0.001）；步行、乘车的各指标平均年度降幅较大（均有AAPC ≥ 7.90，P < 0.001）。 结论 步行、乘车安全得到明显改善，但机动车伤害仍是造成道路交通伤害的主要交通方式，非机动车安全形势日趋严峻，应采取法规手段等干预措施加强常规的系统性管理。 -
关键词:
- Joinpoint回归 /
- 道路交通伤害 /
- 趋势 /
- 影响因素 /
- 干预
Abstract:Objective To analyze the tendency of road traffic injuries and explore its main influencing factors in China from 1997 to 2016, so as to provide references for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Data was collected from national data website. Annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated and trend tests were performed by Joinpoint Regression Program 4.6.0.0. Results The overall trend of the indexes was basically the same, reaching the highest record in 2002. The following downward tendency was different and tended to level off after 2009. However, the forecast showed that the fatality of road traffic accidents would increase slightly in recent years. For different road traffic modes, only the average annual percent change of motor vehicle injuries statistically descended (AAPC=-1.83, Z=-2.23, P=0.026). The average annual decreases of non-motor vehicle deaths were statistically significant (AAPC=-1.98, Z=-2.47, P=0.014), and the number of injured showed a notable upward trend instead (AAPC=3.95, Z=5.16, P < 0.001). The indexes of walking and riding were declined markedly (AAPC ≥ 7.90, P < 0.001). Conclusions The status of walking and riding had been improved significantly, but motor vehicles injuries were still the main traffic mode causing road traffic injuries. The safety situation of non-motor vehicles was increasingly serious. Adopting legal compulsory measures and other intervention to routine systematic management was quite necessary. -
Key words:
- Joinpoint regression /
- Road traffic injury /
- Tendency /
- Influencing factor /
- Intervention
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表 1 1997-2016年中国道路交通伤害指标的Joinpoint回归模型拟合情况
Table 1. Model fitting of Joinpoint regression of road traffic injuries indexes in China from 1997 to 2016
年份 事故起数(起) 死亡人数(人) 死亡率(/10万) 受伤人数(人) 实际值 拟合值 相对误差(%) 实际值 拟合值 相对误差(%) 实际值 拟合值 相对误差(%) 实际值 拟合值 相对误差(%) 1997 304 217 299 389 1.59 73 861 71 673 2.96 5.97 5.80 2.85 190 128 176 558 7.14 1998 346 129 365 465 5.59 78 067 78 727 0.85 6.25 6.34 1.44 222 721 233 914 5.03 1999 412 860 446 125 8.06 83 529 86 475 3.53 6.82 6.92 1.47 286 080 309 902 8.33 2000 616 971 544 586 11.73 93 853 94 986 1.21 7.27 7.56 3.99 418 721 410 575 1.95 2001 754 919 664 778 11.94 105 930 104 334 1.51 8.51 8.26 2.94 546 485 543 951 0.46 2002 773 137 811 496 4.96 109 381 114 602 4.77 8.79 9.02 2.62 562 074 524 591 6.67 2003 667 507 673 842 0.95 104 372 107 022 2.54 8.08 8.37 3.59 494 174 505 920 2.38 2004 517 889 559 538 8.04 107 077 99 944 6.66 8.24 7.77 5.70 480 864 487 913 1.47 2005 450 254 464 624 3.19 98 738 93 334 5.47 7.60 7.21 5.13 469 911 470 547 0.14 2006 378 781 385 809 1.86 89 455 87 161 2.56 6.84 6.69 2.19 431 139 415 604 3.60 2007 327 209 320 365 2.09 81 649 81 396 0.31 6.21 6.21 0 380 442 367 077 3.51 2008 265 204 266 021 0.31 73 484 76 013 3.44 5.56 5.76 3.60 304 919 324 216 6.33 2009 238 351 220 896 7.32 67 759 70 985 4.76 5.10 5.35 4.90 275 125 286 359 4.08 2010 219 521 216 847 1.22 65 225 66 291 1.63 4.89 4.96 1.43 254 075 252 923 0.45 2011 210 812 212 873 0.98 62 387 61 906 0.77 4.65 4.61 0.86 237 421 223 391 5.91 2012 204 196 208 971 2.34 59 997 57 812 3.64 4.45 4.28 3.82 224 327 220 833 1.56 2013 198 394 205 141 3.40 58 539 58 578 0.07 4.32 4.31 0.23 213 724 218 304 2.14 2014 196 812 201 382 2.32 58 523 59 354 1.42 4.28 4.34 1.40 211 882 215 804 1.85 2015 187 781 197 691 5.28 58 022 60 140 3.65 4.22 4.38 1.40 199 880 213 332 6.73 2016 212 846 194 067 8.82 63 093 60 937 3.42 4.56 4.41 3.29 226 430 210 889 6.86 
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表 2 1997-2016年中国道路交通伤害的Joinpoint回归分析
Table 2. Joinpoint regression analysis of road traffic injuries in China from 1997 to 2016
伤害指标 分段1 分段2 分段3 分段4 AAPC值 Z值 P值 年份 APC值 t值 P值 年份 APC值 t值 P值 年份 APC值 t值 P值 年份 APC值 t值 P值 事故起数(起) 1997-2002 22.07 11.28 < 0.001 2002-2009 -16.96 -13.91 < 0.001 2009-2016 -1.83 -1.75 0.105 -2.26 -2.92 0.003 机动车 1997-2001 31.13 10.35 < 0.001 2001-2010 -13.70 -16.31 < 0.001 2010-2016 -1.78 -1.28 0.224 -1.83 -2.23 0.026 非机动车 1997-2001 18.66 7.75 < 0.001 2001-2004 -14.10 -2.18 0.057 2004-2010 -7.58 -5.05 0.001 2010-2016 10.74 8.65 < 0.001 1.95 1.44 0.151 步行、乘车 1997-2002 14.34 4.60 0.001 2002-2010 -25.37 -16.82 < 0.001 2010-2016 -0.08 -0.04 0.972 -8.44 -6.96 < 0.001 其他 1997-2004 43.57 2.43 0.032 2004-2007 -83.73 -1.63 0.128 2007-2016 5.71 0.55 0.595 -11.94 -0.70 0.503 死亡率(/10万) 1997-2002 9.24 7.59 < 0.001 2002-2012 -7.20 -15.71 < 0.001 2012-2016 0.78 0.47 0.648 -1.43 -2.74 0.006 死亡人数 1997-2002 9.84 8.44 < 0.001 2002-2012 -6.61 -15.07 < 0.001 2012-2016 1.33 0.84 0.419 -0.85 -1.70 0.089 机动车 1997-2004 6.50 7.66 < 0.001 2004-2011 -7.84 -7.84 < 0.001 2011-2016 -0.23 -0.17 0.870 -0.74 -1.23 0.220 非机动车 1997-2002 2.19 2.30 0.047 2002-2005 -24.24 -6.56 < 0.001 2005-2011 -5.07 -5.50 < 0.001 2011-2016 14.01 13.87 < 0.001 -1.98 -2.47 0.014 步行、乘车 1997-2002 3.62 1.71 0.113 2002-2009 -22.87 -16.56 < 0.001 2009-2016 1.10 0.88 0.394 -7.90 -8.98 < 0.001 其他 1997-2004 19.33 1.29 0.221 2004-2007 -78.23 -1.48 0.162 2007-2016 -2.02 -0.22 0.831 -16.91 -1.06 0.290 受伤人数(人) 1997-2001 32.49 10.91 < 0.001 2001-2005 -3.56 -0.89 0.397 2005-2011 -11.68 -6.81 < 0.001 2011-2016 -1.15 -0.63 0.543 0.94 0.74 0.459 机动车 1997-2001 32.64 10.99 < 0.001 2001-2006 -3.57 -1.41 0.191 2006-2010 -13.95 -3.70 0.005 2010-2016 -3.19 -2.36 0.043 0.81 0.62 0.543 非机动车 1997-2001 19.19 7.38 < 0.001 2001-2010 -6.81 -8.59 < 0.001 2010-2016 11.78 8.76 < 0.001 3.95 5.16 < 0.001 步行、乘车 1997-2002 21.85 3.63 0.003 2002-2011 -26.52 -11.60 < 0.001 2011-2016 0.45 0.08 0.936 -8.86 -3.89 < 0.001 其他 1997-2004 41.26 2.19 0.049 2004-2007 -81.95 -1.45 0.174 2007-2016 7.54 0.67 0.514 -10.29 -0.54 0.591
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表 3 1997-2016年中国道路交通伤害的交通方式构成比[n(%)]
Table 3. Different traffic modes composition ratio of road traffic injuries in China from 1997 to 2016[n(%)]
年份 道路交通事故起数构成比 道路交通事故死亡构成比 道路交通事故受伤构成比 机动车 非机动车 步行、乘车 其他 机动车 非机动车 步行、乘车 其他 机动车 非机动车 步行、乘车 其他 1997 91.01 4.31 4.22 0.46 84.54 6.01 8.16 1.29 90.49 5.09 4.02 0.40 1998 91.71 3.99 3.76 0.53 85.35 5.60 7.71 1.34 90.97 4.85 3.55 0.63 1999 92.82 3.67 3.29 0.22 87.23 5.17 7.08 0.52 91.87 4.61 3.29 0.23 2000 93.57 3.19 3.02 0.22 86.90 4.86 7.47 0.76 92.67 3.83 3.12 0.38 2001 93.44 3.27 3.03 0.26 88.05 4.44 6.79 0.72 93.01 3.76 3.01 0.22 2002 87.36 2.86 2.75 7.03 78.55 4.20 6.21 11.04 85.30 3.42 2.87 8.40 2003 93.94 2.61 2.79 0.67 89.48 3.85 5.77 0.90 93.58 3.02 2.84 0.57 2004 90.96 2.84 2.20 4.00 91.01 2.55 3.73 2.71 92.89 2.95 1.73 2.42 2005 94.26 3.07 2.51 0.16 94.81 1.90 2.94 0.35 94.35 2.91 2.64 0.10 2006 94.58 3.52 1.85 0.05 94.80 2.36 2.75 0.09 95.61 3.12 1.24 0.04 2007 94.51 3.81 1.65 0.02 95.16 2.41 2.39 0.04 95.53 3.40 1.05 0.02 2008 94.67 3.84 1.47 0.02 95.54 2.39 2.05 0.02 95.57 3.50 0.92 0.01 2009 94.44 4.34 1.19 0.03 95.61 2.54 1.81 0.05 95.32 3.98 0.67 0.03 2010 94.37 4.43 1.17 0.03 95.64 2.45 1.87 0.04 95.18 4.17 0.62 0.03 2011 93.98 4.91 1.08 0.04 95.65 2.49 1.82 0.05 94.61 4.79 0.57 0.03 2012 93.42 5.53 1.01 0.04 95.47 2.71 1.79 0.03 93.86 5.59 0.52 0.03 2013 92.44 6.47 1.05 0.03 94.49 3.45 2.02 0.03 92.79 6.67 0.51 0.03 2014 91.62 7.20 1.14 0.04 93.88 3.95 2.13 0.04 91.98 7.43 0.55 0.04 2015 90.60 8.22 1.14 0.04 93.55 4.36 2.05 0.04 90.82 8.59 0.56 0.04 2016 90.48 8.34 1.15 0.03 93.20 4.70 2.07 0.03 90.69 8.69 0.58 0.03
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