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Administrative Authorities: National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China
Sponsor: National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China
Editing Publishing: Editorial Board of Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
Established in: March 1997
Editor in Chief: Ye Dongqing(Anhui)
CN 34-1304/R ISSN 1674-3679
Core Journal of China
China Boutique Scientific and Technological Periodical
Articles in press have been peer-reviewed and accepted, which are not yet assigned to volumes /issues, but are citable by Digital Object Identifier (DOI).
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2025, 29(3): 249-253.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.001
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Abstract:
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a newly emerged tick-borne infectious disease first discovered in China in 2009, caused by the severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), also known as Dabie bandavirus. The main clinical manifestations of this disease include fever, thrombocytopenia, and leukopenia, with a high mortality rate of 10% to 30%. China has reported the highest number of cases globally, and there has been an increase in the annual incidence rate. SFTSV is primarily transmitted through tick bites, and the blood and body fluids of patients or infected animals are also contagious. Currently, there are no specific drugs or vaccines available for the treatment or prevention of this disease. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct in-depth research on its epidemiological characteristics, transmission routes, high-risk populations, and influencing factors. The development of drugs and vaccines, the strengthening of surveillance systems, the increase of public awareness, and the improving of prevention and control measures are of great significance for people's health and public safety.
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a newly emerged tick-borne infectious disease first discovered in China in 2009, caused by the severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), also known as Dabie bandavirus. The main clinical manifestations of this disease include fever, thrombocytopenia, and leukopenia, with a high mortality rate of 10% to 30%. China has reported the highest number of cases globally, and there has been an increase in the annual incidence rate. SFTSV is primarily transmitted through tick bites, and the blood and body fluids of patients or infected animals are also contagious. Currently, there are no specific drugs or vaccines available for the treatment or prevention of this disease. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct in-depth research on its epidemiological characteristics, transmission routes, high-risk populations, and influencing factors. The development of drugs and vaccines, the strengthening of surveillance systems, the increase of public awareness, and the improving of prevention and control measures are of great significance for people's health and public safety.
2025, 29(3): 254-261.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.002
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Objective To understand the related factors of group sex behavior and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shandong Province, to explore its related factors, and to provide a reference for formulating targeted strategies for HIV/AIDS prevention and control. Methods From April to July in 2022, MSM were recruited in six sentinel surveillance sites in Shandong, with a sample size of 400 in each sentinel. A face-to-face questionnaire was conducted to collect sociodemographic characteristics, sexual behaviors, etc. Blood samples were collected from them for HIV and syphilis antibodies testing. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the related factors of group sex behavior in the last 6 months and HIV testing in the last year. Results A total of 2 415 MSM were investigated. Of all participants, 19.7% had group sex behavior in the last 6 months and 89.7% ever had HIV testing in the last year. Multivariate logistic regression showed that MSM who were aged ≤30 years (aOR =1.83, 95% aOR: 1.02-3.26), ever had anal sex with commercial (aOR =3.34, 95% aOR: 2.14-5.22) or casual partners (aOR=1.55, 95% aOR: 1.21-1.99), had unprotected anal sex in the last 6 months (aOR=2.89, 95% aOR: 2.27-3.67), used new-type drug (aOR=1.79, 95% aOR: 1.37-2.34), diagnosed with STD in the last year (aOR=2.23, 95% aOR: 1.55-3.21), and HIV antibody positive (aOR = 1.70, 95% aOR: 1.03-2.80) were more likely to have group sex in the last 6 months. In contrast, MSM who had education level of college or above (aOR=1.81, 95% aOR: 1.28-2.57), had anal sex with casual partner (aOR=1.94, 95% aOR: 1.37-2.76), had no unprotected anal sex in the last 6 months (aOR=1.84, 95% aOR: 1.31-2.58), syphilis antibody positive (aOR =1.96, 95% aOR: 1.07-3.62), and HIV antibody positive (aOR = 4.45, 95% aOR: 2.40-8.24) were more likely to have no HIV testing in the last year. Conclusions High prevalence of group sex behavior in the last 6 months were noticed among MSM in Shandong Province. It is important to strengthen publicity and education measures, and focus on accessibility to HIV preventive health care services in MSM.
2025, 29(3): 262-267.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.003
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Objective This study evaluated the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing coverage and performance achieving the 90% target for case identification in 2022 within the Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture (Honghe Prefecture), Yunnan Province. The aim was to provide evidence-based insights for the development of targeted and cost-effective HIV testing strategies. Methods Based on HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System, along with relevant documents and work reports, a contact tracing survey was conducted among newly reported and previously diagnosed HIV-positive cases in Honghe Prefecture in 2022 to understand the sources of HIV testing. A logistic regression model was used to analyze factors associated with late HIV diagnosis. Results In 2022, a total of 3 611 496 individuals underwent HIV antibody screening in Honghe Prefecture, representing 81.99% of the total population. Among them, 1 002 HIV-infected individuals were identified, resulting in a crude detection rate of 2.8 per 10 000. Medical institutions and community health facilities accounted for 35.88% and 50.62% of the total HIV testing volume, respectively, identifying 51.30% and 22.75% of the total cases. The crude detection rate was highest among HIV contact tracing (1 077.8 per 10 000), followed by voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) (69.5 per 10 000). The highest proportion of late HIV diagnosis occurred in medical institutions (49.22%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that males (aOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.80-3.39), individuals aged 50 years and older (aOR=1.66, 95% CI: 1.22-2.26), and those identified through medical institutions (aOR=3.29, 95% CI: 1.80-6.02) had higher risk of late diagnosis. In contrast, individuals infected through homosexual transmission (aOR=0.40, 95% CI: 0.17-0.91) had lower risk of late diagnosis (all P < 0.05). Conclusions To achieve the 95% case detection target, it is crucial to strengthen the role of community health facilities, enhance HIV contact tracing efforts, and further refine HIV testing strategies in medical institutions.
2025, 29(3): 268-274.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.004
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Objective To analyze the prevalence and subtype distribution of HPV infections among ≥18-year-old women in the Weifang area, and to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and treatment of HPV. Methods A total of 42 849 women who underwent HPV testing at an outpatient health examination center in a tertiary hospital in Weifang City from January 2019 to December 2023 were included in this study. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to analyze the trends in HPV infection rates across different age groups, and cluster analysis was employed to investigate the distribution characteristics of HPV subtype infection rates. Results The overall HPV infection rate was 20.66%, with the rate of high-risk HPV infections being 15.65%. The top five HPV subtypes in terms of infection rates were HPV52, 16, 58, 51, and 68 among the type of HPV infected; for low-risk HPV infections, the rates were 5.01%, with HPV53, 81, and 42 being the most prevalent. In different age groups, the highest infection rates were observed in those 18- < 25 years old and ≥55 years old, at 32.95% and 25.81%, respectively. The majority of infections were single infections (70.05%), followed by dual infections (20.43%). Joinpoint regression indicated a decreasing trend in HPV infection rates in the 25- < 35 and 45- < 55 age groups (all P < 0.05), with no turning points observed in any age group. Cluster analysis revealed that HPV16 and 52 were in the high-infection group, while 58, 42, 81, 53, and 51 were in the medium-infection group, and the remaining 16 subtypes were classified as low-infection group. Conclusions The HPV infection rate in the Weifang area is relatively high, predominantly characterized by single and high-risk HPV infections, with 18- < 25 years old and ≥55 years old women being the primary affected groups. Attention should be focused on cervical cancer screening for women aged 18 to < 25 and ≥ 55, and actively carry out women's health education and promotional activities to raise awareness of cervical cancer prevention and treatment among women, in order to prevent the occurrence of cervical cancer.
2025, 29(3): 275-282.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.005
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Objective The characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) -infected and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients in Hefei from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed to explore the relevant influencing factors of late diagnosis. Methods The newly discovered HIV/AIDS cases from 2014 to 2023 were selected from the integrated AIDS prevention and control information system, late diagnosis were analyzed according to the definition standard of late diagnosis currently used in China. Logistic regression was employed to investigate the association of late diagnosis and related influencing factors. Results From 2014 to 2023, a total of 1 218 cases of HIV-infected and AIDS patients were found late in Hefei, the proportion of late diagnosis was 34.18% (1 218/3 564). Among them, 58.13% (708/1 218) were found by medical institutions, and 36.21% (441/1 218) were found by testing and consulting. The majority of late found patients were Han, with male accounted for 90.97%. The mean age was (42.15±14.22) years. The inter-group distribution of age group, marital status, population nature, education level, occupation, transmission route, sample source, district/county, and time from diagnosis to CD4 detection were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Logistic multi-factor analysis showed that, compared with < 25 age group, the older the age group, the higher the risk of late diagnosis. Compared with those with primary school education and below, those with college education and above had a lower risk of late diagnosis (OR=0.70, 95% CI: 0.51-0.95, P=0.020). Compared to the sources tested by medical institutions, testing and counseling (OR=0.45, 95% CI: 0.38-0.53), positive spouse/sexual partner testing (OR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.14-0.67), detention personnel testing (OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.29-0.86), unpaid blood donors testing (OR=0.35, 95% CI: 0.20-0.62), other tests (OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.28-0.90) had a lower risk of late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS (all P < 0.05). The risk of late diagnosis was lower when the time interval between case diagnosis and CD4 detection was ≥15 days compared with < 15 d. People with unknown STD history had a lower risk of late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS than those infected (OR=0.61, 95% CI: 0.40-0.94, P=0.024). Conclusions The number of late diagnosis cases of HIV-infected and AIDS patients in Hefei has decreased in the past 10 years, but the late diagnosis rate of medical institutions is still high. Publicity and education should be further strengthened to promote early diagnosis of high-risk and elderly groups, continue to implement provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling strategy in medical institutions and promote routine AIDS testing in key departments.
2025, 29(3): 283-288.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.006
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Objective To understand the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of monkeypox infection in the population of men who have sex with men (MSM) in a city, and to analyze the factors influencing monkeypox infection in the MSM population. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted by a MSM social organization in a city through snowball sampling method to recruit eligible MSM in May-June 2024. The basic information of the participating MSM, history of monkeypox diagnosis and treatment since May 2023, monkeypox-related symptoms, epidemiological history, history of vaccination, and HIV infection were statistically analyzed. A multivariate unconditional binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of monkeypox virus infection. Results A total of 3 039 MSM were effectively investigated, with a mean age of (33.00±7.81) years. Of them, 97.47% (2 962/3 039) were local and 2.53% (77/3 039) were non-local in their usual place of residence. A total of 49 monkeypox cases were investigated, of which 21 were confirmed cases, 17 monkeypox-like cases and 11 suspected cases. Of all the monkeypox cases, 33 had experienced symptoms related to suspected monkeypox-like, with 100.00% (33/33) of the symptoms being skin rash, and 30.30% (10/33) of the symptoms being fever, swollen lymph nodes, headache, and sore throat. There were also complications in 54.55% (18/33) of the cases. There were 20.41% (10/49) cases of monkeypox who had a history of homosexual sexual contact and incidental sexual intercourse 21 days before the onset of the disease. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that MSM whose occupation was business services (OR=4.560, 95% CI: 1.942-10.707, P < 0.001) had a significantly higher risk of contracting monkeypox than MSM who were students. While those who having been vaccinated against monkeypox (OR=0.067, 95% CI: 0.018-0.255, P < 0.001) and being aware of the presence of undiagnosed suspected monkeypox infections in the neighborhood (OR= 0.128, 95% CI: 0.054-0.304, P < 0.001) had a relatively lower risk of monkeypox infection among MSM. Conclusions The MSM population is a key population for the prevention and control of monkeypox epidemics, and the surveillance of this population should be strengthened. Also, appropriate prevention and control strategies should be developed according to the characteristics of the group.
2025, 29(3): 289-295.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.007
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Objective To investigate the impact of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its components on the progression of disease progression in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected males. Methods The study employed Fine-Gray competing risk survival analysis to assess the impact of PM2.5 and its components on the progression of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in newly diagnosed HIV-infected males in Wuhan from 2000 to 2021. The quantile G-computation models and interaction models were used to identify key toxic components of PM2.5 and vulnerable individuals. Results A total of 5 571 newly diagnosed HIV-infected males were included in the study, with 1 151 progressing to AIDS during the follow-up period, corresponding to an incidence rate of 69.10/1 000 person-years. The fine-Gray competing risk survival analysis revealed that each 10 μg/m3 increase in cumulative average PM2.5, the risk of progressing to AIDS increased by 28.8% (95% CI: 25.5%-32.2%). Among the PM2.5 components, each 1 μg/m3 increase in cumulative average exposure to organic matter, black carbon, ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate was associated with increased risk of progressing to AIDS of 8.6%, 49.0%, 20.4%, 11.2%, and 14.5%, respectively. Individuals aged 60 and above, with a BMI ≥ 24 kg/m2, higher education levels, or a history of smoking are more vulnerable to the effects of atmospheric PM2.5 and its components. Conclusions Exposure to atmospheric PM2.5 can increase the risk of AIDS progression in HIV-infected males. SO42- and BC are key components of PM2.5 that exerts the toxic effects. It is important for AIDS prevention and control departments to prioritize the high-risk individuals, and focus on improving and maintaining their immune function at optimal level in order to decelerate the disease progression of AIDS.
2025, 29(3): 296-303.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.008
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Objective To understand the epidemic trend of hepatitis C and changes of behavioral characteristics among different types of drug users in Beijing from 2017 to 2021, and to provide necessary information for developing targeted hepatitis C treatment and prevention strategy among drug users. Methods From 2017 to 2021, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted among drug users in Beijing, blood samples were collected for hepatitis C virus (HCV), syphilis, and HIV testing. Chi-square tests were used to analyze the trends in hepatitis C prevalence and changes in behavioral characteristics among different types of drug users. Multivariate logistic regression models were employed to identify risk factors for HCV infection among these populations. Results The overall prevalence of HCV positive among drug users in Beijing from 2017 to 2021 was 19.9%, The prevalence of HCV infection in different types of drug users had shown an upward trend from 2019 to 2021. Among the traditional drug users, the proportion of injecting drug use increased from 59.6% in 2017 to 70.3% in 2021 (χ2=19.215, P=0.001). Among the new-type drug users, the proportion of injecting drug use increased from 5.9% in 2017 to 10.8% in 2021 (χ2=23.469, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that the risk factors of HCV infection in traditional drug users included household registration in Beijing (OR=5.49, 95% CI: 1.41-21.41), injecting drug use (OR=9.41, 95% CI: 2.39-36.99), and having sex after drug use (OR=4.61, 95% CI: 1.24-17.18), while the risk factors of HCV infection in new-type drug users was injecting drug use (OR=12.04, 95% CI: 5.60-25.88, P < 0.001). Conclusions The prevalence of HCV infection among different types of drug users in Beijing had been increasing year by year from 2017 to 2021. The continuous existence of injecting drug use and unsafe sexual behavior was the main reason for the increase of hepatitis C among drug users.
2025, 29(3): 304-309.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.009
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Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics and mixed infection of mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) in acute respiratory tract infection adult cases in Shanghai from 2015 to 2023, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of M. pneumoniae. Methods Acute respiratory tract infections were collected from 20 hospitals in Shanghai from 2015 to 2023. Relevant information was registered, and throat swab specimens, sputurn specimens were sampled to detect respiratory pathogens by multiplex polymerase chain reaction. Infection status and epidemiological characteristics of M. pneumoniae were analyzed by descriptive study methods. Results A total of 10 971 cases of acute respiratory tract infection were included, the positive rate of M. pneumoniae was 1.87% (205/10 971), and the positive rate of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) was significantly higher than that of influenza-like illness (ILI) (χ2=4.68, P=0.030). The incidence of M. pneumoniae positive cases was mainly distributed in the fourth quarter, accounting for 37.07% (76/205). The positive rate decreased with age (χ2=11.81, P < 0.001), being higher in 18-< 46 age group (4.12%) than that of other age groups (0.63%-1.76%). Mixed infection accounted for 22.93% of 205 positive cases, the mixed infection rates of ILI and SARI were 38.81% (26/67) and 15.22% (21/138), respectively, and the main mixed pathogen of M. pneumoniae was influenza A virus. Conclusions M. pneumoniae infection among acute respiratory infections in Shanghai is more common in young adults. It is necessary to further strengthen the surveillance of M. pneumoniae in adults during the epidemic season, with a focus on the mixed infection of M. pneumoniae with other pathogens such as influenza virus.
2025, 29(3): 310-316.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.010
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Objective To investigates the epidemiological characteristics, temporal trends, and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis C in 51 towns of Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, from 2005 to 2023. The findings aim to provide an evidence-based foundation for the formulation of targeted regional prevention and control strategies. Methods A comprehensive descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to evaluate the temporal, spatial, and demographic distribution of hepatitis C cases in Dehong Prefecture. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in incidence rates over time. Spatiotemporal clustering was examined using global and local Moran's I statistics to detect clustering patterns and identify high-risk areas. Results From 2005 to 2023, the reported incidence of hepatitis C exhibited a significant overall upward trend, with an average annual percentage change of 11.96% (P < 0.05). The annual percentage change showed a marked increase during 2005-2009 (61.68%, P < 0.05) and 2010-2019 (4.33%, P < 0.05), followed by a statistically significant decline from 2020 to 2023 (APC=-7.51%, P < 0.05). Spatiotemporal analyses identified significant clustering of hepatitis C cases, with high-high clustering predominantly located in the western border regions and southern urban centers, whereas low-low clustering was concentrated in northern and central areas. Conclusions The epidemiological analysis reveals a consistent upward trend in the incidence of hepatitis C in Dehong Prefecture, accompanied by clear spatiotemporal clustering patterns. Over the past five years, high-incidence areas have emerged in the western border regions and southern urban centers. These findings underscore the need for tailored intervention strategies, focusing on transmission pathways and high-risk populations in these hot spot regions, to effectively control hepatitis C transmission in the region.
2025, 29(3): 317-323.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.011
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Objective To investigate the acute impact of atmospheric ozone (O3) on resident mortality in Lanzhou City. Methods Ambient air quality, meteorological and residential cause of death monitoring data were collected from 2014 to 2023 in Lanzhou City, and time series analysis method was used to quantitatively study the relationship between O3 exposure and residential deaths, with disease, gender and age stratification. Results The daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O3 in Lanzhou City from 2014 to 2023 was 91.0 μg/m3. For different types of mortality, in the single-pollutant model, at lag 4 d, for every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration, the risk of non-accidental death for the population increased by 0.408% (95% CI: 0.073%-0.744%). The risk of death from circulatory disease increased by 0.478% (95% CI: 0.025%-0.933%) and 0.578% (95% CI: 0.139%-1.020%) for every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration at lag 2 d and lag 4 d, respectively. Among the cumulative effects of single pollutants, the differences in the effects of O3 on non-accidental deaths from lag 0-4 d to lag 0-7 d were all statistically significant (all P < 0.05). The effect value was largest at lag 0-5 d, with a 0.831% (95% CI: 0.174%-1.490%) increase in the risk of non-accidental death for the population for every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration. The differences in the effects of O3 on death from circulatory diseases from lag 0-2 d to lag 0-7 d were all statistically significant (all P < 0.05), with the effect value being greatest at lag 0-5 d. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration, the risk of non-accidental death in the population increased by 1.420% (95% CI: 0.555%-2.290%). For the analyses of mortality effects by gender and age, the differences in the effects of O3 from lag 2 d to lag 4 d on deaths in females and those ≥65 years old in the single-pollutant model were statistically significant (all P < 0.05), and for females, the effect value was largest at lag 4 d. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration, the risk of death in females increased by 0.636% (95% CI: 0.154%-1.120%). For people ≥65 years of age, the effect value was largest at lag 3 d. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration, the risk of death for people ≥65 years of age increased by 0.613% (95% CI: 0.198%-1.030%). Among the cumulative effects of single pollutants, the difference in the effect of O3 on male mortality from lag 0-3 d to lag 0-4 d were all statistically significant (all P < 0.05), with the effect value being the largest at lag 0-4 d. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration, the risk of male mortality increased by 0.775% (95% CI: 0.028%-1.530%). The difference in the effect of O3 on death in lag 0-2 d to lag 0-7 d was statistically significant for both females and those ≥65 years of age (all P < 0.05), the effect values were all largest at lag 0-4 d. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration, the risk of death increased by 1.640%(95% CI: 0.750%-2.540%) for women and 1.580% (95% CI: 0.808 %-2.360%) for people ≥65 years of age from 2014 to 2023. Conclusions There is an acute effect of atmospheric O3 on non-accidental deaths and deaths from circulatory diseases in the population of Lanzhou City from 2014 to 2023, with females and ≥65 year olds being more sensitive to O3 exposure.
2025, 29(3): 324-331.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.012
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Objective To master the impact of air pollutants on years of life lost (YLL) for residents, and to construct the air quality health index (AQHI) in Shijiazhuang. Methods Air pollutants, meteorological, and resident mortality data were collected from 2017 to 2020 in Shijiazhuang, and the daily YLL were calculated using the standard life table. A generalized additive model was used to assess the exposure-response relationship between air pollutants and daily YLL, and the principal components of air pollutants were constructed by principal component analysis. The main components of air pollutants and daily YLL were used to construct AQHI in Shijiazhuang, and the effects of AQHI and the air quality index (AQI) on YLL were compared. Results From 2017 to 2020, the average daily non-accidental YLL in Shijiazhuang was 719.3 person-years. The YLL increased by 0.270 (95% CI: 0.002-0.538), 0.230 (95% CI: 0.048-0.413), 2.383 (95% CI: 1.068-3.698), 1.135 (95% CI: 0.323-1.947), and -0.513 (95% CI: -0.959-0.066) for each 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3, respectively. Two principal components (66.61% and 16.44% of variance contribution) were selected to construct AQHI. For every 1 IQR increase in AQHI, the YLL of the whole population, male, female, < 65 years old and ≥65 years old increased by 28.848 (95% CI: 9.309-48.386), 20.697 (95% CI: 5.940-35.455), 8.150 (95% CI: -1.791-18.092), 16.657 (95% CI: 2.668-30.646) and 12.190 (95% CI: 1.455-22.926) person-years, respectively, which were higher than the AQI YLL increased. Conclusions The atmospheric pollutants PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2 and O3 in Shijiazhuang affect YLL from 2017 to 2020. The AQHI constructed by the principal components of air pollutants and daily YLL can better evaluate the effect of air pollution on population health.
2025, 29(3): 332-339.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.013
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Objective To explore appropriate prediction methods for symptom monitoring based on time series and spatio-temporal aggregation detection, and to provide a foundational reference for the effective analysis and utilization of symptom monitoring data. Methods In this study, ARIMA and Holt-Winters models were used for time-series analysis, and aggregation regions and time-integrated detection analyses were conducted through a retrospective temporal-spatial clustering detection analysis. Results Taking the surveillance in X City as an example, from January 1 to April 30, 2023, 34 207 individuals were monitored for symptoms that may be associated with communicable diseases and visited a healthcare facility. Comparing the model predicted value between April 1 to April 19 with the actual monitoring value found that the Holt-Winters model predicted the data better than the ARIMA model with smaller errors, and almost all the actual values were within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value. The spatio-temporal scan analysis showed that the residential community of patients with monitored symptoms in the certain city covered 9 clusters of the city. Category 1 included D street, E street, A street, F street, G street and A street; category 1 cluster of sore throat and nausea was D street, A street and G street; category 1 cluster of diarrhea and vomiting was G street and D street. The onset of the monitored symptoms was mainly concentrated between December 2022 and April 2023. Conclusions The Holt-Winters model has a good time trend prediction effect on symptom data, and the aggregation of infectious diseases can be detected in time by analyzing symptom surveillance data through spatio-temporal scanning, which provides important joint spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal indications for prevention and control efforts. Symptom surveillance data can be used to monitor the potential prevalence of infectious diseases and provide reference for realizing early warning.
2025, 29(3): 340-347.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.014
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Objective To explore the association between the risk of hyperuricemia (HUA) and the dietary patterns among aged 35-74 years Zhuang minority residents in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2018 to 2019, to provide scientific evidences for the health management of HUA, the prevention and control of gout and other non-communicable chronic diseases. Methods A cross-sectional study with structured questionnaire, physical examination, and laboratory test for blood and urine samples was conducted based on the Guangxi Ethnic Minorities Cohort of Chronic Diseases. Factor analysis was performed to detect the dietary patterns based on 14 types of food intake. A binomial logistic regression was used to explore the association between the risk of HUA and dietary patterns. Results A total of 11 134 aged 35-74 years Zhuang minority adults were included. Among them, 4 977 (44.70%) were males and 6 157 (55.30%) were females. The prevalence of HUA was 17.47% (30.88% for males and 6.63% for females). Most study subjects had only primary school or lower education (55.83%), and 87.80% were rural residents. Four dietary patterns have been identified in the factor analysis and their cumulative variance contribution rate were 46.36%. After adjusted for gender, education level, area of residence, hypertension, history of coronary heart disease, history of chronic kidney disease, liver function, blood lipids and body mass index, the dietary pattern of aquatic and poultry and eggs was a protective factor for HUA when compared to multigrain pasta pattern (aOR=0.82, 95% CI: 0.70-0.96, P=0.012). Compared to non-drinkers, moderate (aOR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.17-1.79, P < 0.001) and excessive alcohol consumption (aOR=1.74, 95% CI: 1.50-2.03, P < 0.001) were risk factors for HUA. Compared to those who do not drink soup, drinking soup 1-2 times (aOR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.63-0.90, P=0.002) and drinking soup ≥3 times a week (aOR=0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-1.00, P=0.043) was a protective factor for HUA. Conclusions The prevalence of HUA was relative high among aged 35-74 years Zhuang minority residents from 2018 to 2019. The risk of HUA was closely related to dietary pattern and alcohol consumption. Healthy dietary patterns should be advocated and strengthened to reduce the risk of HUA.
2025, 29(3): 348-352.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.015
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Objective To explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HIV-infected persons and patients in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023, and to provide suggestions for prevention and treatment strategies. Methods Based on HIV/AIDS cases reported in 104 counties and districts in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023, global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were conducted using GeoDa 1.22, while spatio-temporal scanning analyses were performed with SaTScan 10.2.5. The results were visualized using QGIS 3.30 to describe and analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic over the past 20 years. Results The spatial distribution of AIDS cases in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 expanded with local concentrations. Global Moran′s I ranged from 0.254 9 to 0.579 1, with all Z-values >1.96 and P < 0.01, indicating significant global spatial autocorrelation. The spatio-temporal scan identified three statistically significant clusters (all P < 0.001). Conclusions Over the past 20 years, the high and high concentration of AIDS areas in northern Anhui have gradually expanded. This suggests that northwest Anhui is a key focus for prevention and control, requiring targeted measures based on local conditions.
2025, 29(3): 353-360.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.016
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the survival status, treatment effect, and influencing factors of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients after antiretroviral therapy in Lanzhou from 2005 to 2023. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect information on 2 766 patients who received antiretroviral therapy in Lanzhou from 2005 to 2023. The life table method was used to calculate the mortality probability, survival probability, and cumulative survival rate of the subjects. The Kaplan-Meier method was applied to calculate the average survival time of the subjects up to the end of observation, with the Log-rank test used to determine the statistical significance of the differences. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used for both univariate and multivariate analyses. Construction of a nomogram model was used to predict prognosis of antiretroviral therapy. Results The average age at diagnosis was (38.14±13.01) years, and the median follow-up time was 63 (31, 93) months. The cumulative survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years were 98.46%, 97.44%, 96.99%, and 95.86%, respectively. The total mortality rate was 1.27 per 100 person-years, and the AIDS-related mortality rate was 0.57 per 100 person-years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that baseline CD4 cell count, the most recent viral load test result, and current WHO clinical stage were significant factors influencing the survival time of the subjects, with statistical significance (P < 0.05). Specifically, the group with baseline CD4 ≥ 400/μL (HR=0.443, 95% CI: 0.291-0.673, P < 0.001) had a lower risk of death, while the group with a recent viral load test result ≥ 1 000 copies/mL (HR=12.725, 95% CI: 6.548-24.729, P < 0.001) and the WHO clinical stage Ⅳ group (HR=3.517, 95% CI: 1.785-6.932, P < 0.001) had a higher risk of death. Incorporating the above three influencing factors to construct a nomogram model, the model differentiation C-index=0.892 (95% CI: 0.847-0.934), and the model possessed good predictive ability. Conclusions The antiretroviral therapy for HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou has achieved significant results, with high patient survival rates and virological suppression rates. Standardized treatment in the early stage of the disease is a crucial measure to reduce the risk of death and improve survival rates.
2025, 29(3): 361-366.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.017
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of pertussis in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023, to provide a feasible basis for pertussis prevention and control. Methods Pertussis case information from Qinghai Province during 2009-2023 was collected from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of pertussis cases. Statistical analysis was performed using R 4.3.1 software, disease distribution was visualized using Origin 2024 software, and Joinpoint 5.0.2 software was used to analyze temporal trends in incidence rates. Results A total of 97 pertussis cases were reported in Qinghai Province from 2009 to 2023, with no fatalities and an average annual incidence rate of 0.11/100 000. Cases were reported in all months, with October showing the highest peak at 20 cumulative cases. Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had the highest average annual incidence rate at 0.39/100 000. Cases were predominantly concentrated in the population under 10 years of age, accounting for 91.75% (89/97) of total cases. The overall pertussis incidence rate in Qinghai Province showed an increasing trend from 2009 to 2023 (AAPC=10.10%, P < 0.001), with a significant decrease during 2009-2012 (APC=-37.79%, P=0.006) and an increasing trend during 2012-2023 (APC=28.64%, P < 0.001). Conclusions While pertussis reporting in Qinghai Province remains at relatively low levels from 2009 to 2023, there is an overall yearly increasing trend, primarily affecting young children, with notable regional variations. It is recommended to improve pertussis surveillance and further increase vaccination coverage among both children and adults.
2025, 29(3): 367-372.
doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.03.018
Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the effect of temperature on the number of herpes zoster visits and its lagged effect, in Beijing, China, using the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Methods Outpatient data for herpes zoster and meteorological data for the same period in Beijing, from January 2016 to December 2021, were collected. The influence of daily average temperature on the daily number of herpes zoster visits in Beijing, along with its lagged effect, was analyzed using the DLNM. Results From January 2016 to December 2021, a total of 488 100 outpatient visits for herpes zoster were reported in the "Electronic Medical Record Sharing Project Database" of the Beijing Health and Health Big Data and Policy Research Center. The daily average temperature was positively correlated with the daily number of herpes zoster outpatient visits (rs=0.098, P < 0.05). Taking the median daily average temperature of 12.59 ℃ as the reference value, the relative risks (RRs) were relatively high under both high and low temperatures. The low temperature effect occurred in the early lags (lag 0-5 d), while the high temperature effect occurred in the later lags (lag 3-5 d and 12-14 d). Conclusions The relationship between temperature and the number of herpes zoster outpatient visits in Beijing is nonlinear. The effect of low temperatures on the incidence of herpes zoster occurs early and is significant, while the effect of high temperatures is more prolonged, with a lagged effect. It suggests that attention should be paid to the prevention of herpes zoster during seasons of extreme temperatures.
