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摘要:
目的 对安徽省2020年1月22日-2020年2月15日新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)的流行病学特征进行分析, 为本地区疫情防控提供流行病学依据。 方法 病例资料来源于安徽省及其各地市卫生健康委员会公布的COVID-19疫情公告。运用描述性研究方法统计分析安徽省及各地级市COVID-19在时间、空间、时空以及人群的分布特征。采用Spearman秩相关分析探索日发病率与迁徙指数(迁入数据)的相关性。使用ArcGIS 10.6软件绘制安徽省确诊病例的时空分布地图。 结果 2020年1月22日-2020年2月15日期间, 安徽省累计COVID-19确诊病例数为962例, 累计发病率为1.52/10万; 累计治愈出院人数比例为24.12%;共有6例死亡病例, 粗病死率为0.62%;确诊病例的年龄集中在30~59岁(66.70%), 不同年龄层病例数差异有统计学意义(χ2=247.96, P < 0.001);安徽省16个地市均有COVID-19确诊病例, 其中合肥市(17.57%)、蚌埠市(16.32%)以及阜阳市(15.80%)地区病例数较多; 安徽省日发病率与12 d前迁徙指数(迁入数据)存在正相关关系(r s=0.74, P < 0.001)。 结论 安徽省各地市均出现COVID-19确诊病例, 截至2月15日, 各地市累计确诊病例仍有增加, 增幅下降, 确诊病例主要集中在合肥市及皖北地区, 各年龄层普遍易感, 30~59岁确诊病例比例最高。各级政府需采取相应的干预措施, 以控制COVID-19的蔓延。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the epidemic situation of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Anhui Province, so as to provide epidemiological information for epidemic prevention and control. Methods Case data was obtained from daily case reports of COVID-19 on the websites of the Health Committee of Anhui Province and its cities. The distribution characteristics of the incidence of COVID-19 in time, space, and population in Anhui Province were described. Correlation between daily incidence rate and migration index(immigration data) was explored by Spearman rank correlation analysis. Arc GIS 10.6 software was used to draw the spatial-temporal distribution map of the number of confirmed cases in Anhui Province. Results From January 22, 2020 to February 15, 2020, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Anhui Province was 962. The cumulative incidence rate was 1.52/100 000. The proportion of discharged cases was 24.12%. There were 6 cases died, and the crude case fatality rate was 0.62%. The age of confirmed cases was concentrated in 30-59 years old(66.70%), and there were differences among different age groups(χ2=247.96, P < 0.001). COVID-19 cases had been diagnosed in 16 cities in Anhui Province, among which Hefei(17.57%), Bengbu(16.32%), and Fuyang(15.80%) had more cases. The daily incidence rate of Anhui was positively correlated with the migration index(migration coefficient) of 12 days ago(rs=0.74, P < 0.001). Conclusions COVID-19 cases have been reported in all cities of Anhui Province. As of February 15, the number of confirmed cases in all cities has increased with slowing. The confirmed cases are mainly concentrated in Hefei City and northern Anhui Province. Different ages are generally susceptible, with the highest proportion of confirmed cases occurring between 30 and 59 years old. The government should take measures to control the spread of COVID-19. -
图 1 安徽省各地市累计发病例数变化
Figure 1. The change of cumulative number of cases in Anhui Province
图 2 安徽省各地市日发病率变化
Figure 2. The incidence rate of disease in different cities of Anhui Province
图 3 安徽省各地市每日新增确诊病例数变化情况
Figure 3. Changes in the number of newly confirmed cases per day in Anhui Province
图 4 安徽省COVID-19累计确诊病例时空分布图
Figure 4. Spatial and temporal distribution of cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Anhui Province
表 1 安徽省COVID-19病例数、死亡数及粗病死率
Table 1. The number of cases, deaths and crude fatality rate of COVID-19 in Anhui Province
基本特征 确诊病例[n(%)] 死亡病例[n(%)] 粗病死率(%) 年龄组(岁)a 0~ 14(1.50) 0(0.00) 0.00 10~ 37(3.96) 0(0.00) 0.00 20~ 128(13.70) 0(0.00) 0.00 30~ 189(20.24) 0(0.00) 0.00 40~ 224(23.98) 0(0.00) 0.00 50~ 210(22.48) 2(33.33) 0.95 ≥60 132(14.13) 4(66.67) 3.03 性别b 男 506(53.15) 5(83.33) 0.99 女 446(46.85) 1(16.67) 0.22 病例类型 有湖北接触史 57(5.93) 0(0.00) 0.00 外地输入性 321(33.37) 1(16.67) 0.31 聚集性或有流行病学关联的病例 363(37.73) 1(16.67) 0.35 不明原因 221(22.97) 4(66.67) 1.81 合计 962(100.00) 6(100.00) 0.62 注:a表示28名病例年龄信息缺失; b表示10名病例性别信息缺失。 
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表 2 安徽省及其各地级市COVID-19确诊病例数与累计发病率
Table 2. The number of confirmed cases and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in Anhui Province
地区 确诊病例数[n(%)] 累计发病率(/10万) 合肥市 169(17.57) 2.09 蚌埠市 157(16.32) 4.63 阜阳市 152(15.80) 1.85 亳州市 108(11.23) 2.06 安庆市 82(8.52) 1.75 六安市 65(6.76) 1.34 宿州市 39(4.05) 0.69 马鞍山市 36(3.74) 1.54 芜湖市 31(3.22) 0.83 铜陵市 28(2.91) 1.72 淮北市 26(2.70) 1.15 淮南市 24(2.49) 0.69 池州市 17(1.77) 1.15 滁州市 13(1.35) 0.32 黄山市 9(0.94) 0.64 宣城市 6(0.62) 0.23 合计 962(100.00) 1.52
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