Analysis of the epidemic status of coronavirus disease 2019 in high altitude ethnic areas of China and discussion on related influencing factors
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摘要:
目的 分析中国高海拔民族地区新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)流行现状与相关影响因素, 为制订、实施该地区COVID-19等传染病的防控策略、措施提供参考依据。 方法 采用描述性流行病学方法分析疫情的三间分布, 并基于传染病控制理论分析其面临的挑战。 结果 五省、自治区(西藏、青海、四川、云南、甘肃)高海拔民族地区确诊人数119例, 占五省、自治区全部确诊人数14.5%, 占全国0.1%。甘孜州确诊人数最多为78人, 占四川14.5%, 占高海拔民族地区的65.5%;患者总性别比1:0.8, 平均年龄为(41.7±16.7)岁, 最小发病者年龄为3岁, 最大发病者年龄为77岁。有湖北旅居史患者30人, 占25.2%。与确诊人员有密切接触史69人, 占58.0%。输入性病例30人, 占25.2%, 无死亡病例。 结论 总体病例数量少, 疫情平稳, 个别地区疫情突出; 疫情呈前期增长, 后期下降趋势, 部分地区连续多天无新增; 高海拔民族地区面临传染源管理追踪、预防救治、自然环境不利等影响因素, 因此有必要建立跨区域的COVID-19等传染病联防联控长效机制, 制订高海拔民族地区COVID-19等传染病防控方案, 推动防控机制长期、有效开展。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the epidemic status of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) and related influencing factors in the high altitude ethnic areas of China, so as to provide basis for the formulation and implementation of COVID-19 prevention and control strategies and measures in this areas. Methods The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the three distribution of epidemic situation, and the challenge was analyzed based on the theory of infectious disease control. Results 119 confirmed cases in the high altitude ethnic areas of five provincial-level regions including Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu accounted for 14.5% of all the confirmed cases in five provincial-level regions, and for 0.1% of the whole country. The number of confirmed cases in Ganzi Prefecture was 78 at most, accounting for 14.5% of Sichuan Province and 65.5% of high-altitude ethnic areas. The total sex ratio of the patients was 1:0.8, with an average age of(41.7 ± 16.7) years. The youngest case was 3 years old, and the oldest case was 77 years old. 30 people had a history of living in Hubei, accounting for 25.2%, 69 people had a history of close contact with the diagnosed person, accounting for 58.0%. 30 imported cases accounted for 25.2% and there were no deaths. Conclusions The overall number of cases is small, the epidemic situation is stable, and the epidemic situation in some areas is prominent; the epidemic situation has increased in the early stage and declined in the later stage, and there has been no new increase in some areas for several consecutive days; the high-altitude ethnic minority areas are faced with such influencing factors as management and tracking of infectious sources, prevention and treatment, adverse natural environment, etc. So it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism of cross regional COVID-19 and other infectious diseases joint prevention and control, and formulate COVID-19 and other infectious diseases in the high-altitude ethnic minority areas disease prevention and control plan, promote the long-term and effective development of the mechanism. -
图 1 高海拔民族地区确诊COVID-19人数时间分布
Figure 1. Time distribution of confirmed number of people in high altitude ethnic areas
图 2 高海拔民族地区一代和二代确诊COVID-19人数时间分布
Figure 2. Time distribution of the first and second generation diagnosed population in high altitude ethnic areas
图 3 甘孜州一代和二代确诊COVID-19人数时间分布
Figure 3. Time distribution of the first and second generation diagnosed population in Ganzi Prefecture
图 4 西宁市一代和二代确诊COVID-19人数时间分布
Figure 4. Time distribution of first generation and second generation diagnosed population in Xining City
图 5 凉山州一代和二代确诊COVID-19人数时间分布
Figure 5. Time distribution of the first and second generation diagnosed population in Liangshan Prefecture
表 1 高海拔民族地区新冠肺炎确诊情况[n(%)]
Table 1. Coronavirus disease 2019 in high altitude areas [n(%)]
变量 西藏 青海(西宁/海北州) 西宁 海北州 四川(甘孜/凉山州/阿坝州) 甘孜州 凉山州 阿坝州 甘肃(甘南州) 合计 性别 男 1(100.0) 12(66.7) 11(73.3) 1(33.3) 51(55.4) 43(55.1) 8(61.5) 0(0.0) 3(37.5) 67(56.3) 女 0(0.0) 6(33.3) 4(26.7) 2(66.7) 41(44.6) 35(44.9) 5(38.5) 1(100.0) 5(62.5) 52(43.7) 年龄(岁) 34.0 32.2±12.2 34.2±11.8 22.3±11.0 42.8±17.3 43.1±17.6 42.3±16.3 26.0 51.8±8.0 41.7±16.7 湖北旅居史 有 1(100.0) 15(83.3) 12(80.0) 3(100.0) 14(15.2) 5(6.4) 8(61.5) 1(100.0) 0(0.0) 30(25.2) 无 0(0.0) 3(16.7) 3(20.0) 0(0.0) 78(84.8) 73(93.6) 5(38.5) 0(0.0) 8(100.0) 89(74.8) 确诊人员接触史 有 1(100.0) 10(55.6) 7(46.7) 3(100.0) 52(56.5) 39(50.0) 13(100.0) 1(100.0) 7(87.5) 69(58.0) 无 0(0.0) 8(44.4) 8(53.3) 0(0.0) 40(43.5) 39(50.0) 0(0.0) 0(0.0) 1(12.5) 50(42.0) 输入病例 是 1(100.0) 14(77.8) 11(73.3) 3(100.0) 15(16.3) 6(7.7) 8(61.5) 1(100.0) 0(0.0) 30(25.2) 否 0(0.0) 4(22.2) 4(26.7) 0(0.0) 77(83.7) 72(92.3) 5(38.5) 0(0.0) 8(100.0) 89(74.8) 合计 1(0.8) 18(15.1) 15(12.6) 3(2.5) 92(77.3) 78(65.5) 13(10.9) 1(0.8) 8(6.7) 119 
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表 2 确诊COVID-19病例流向表
Table 2. Flow of confirmed cases in COVID-19
起点 终点 人数 武汉 拉萨 1 武汉 西宁 12 武汉 海北 3 武汉 凉山州 6 宜昌 凉山州 2 厦门 凉山州 1 北京 凉山州 1 武汉 阿坝州 1 武汉 甘孜州 5 雅安 甘孜州 1 成都 甘孜州 2 拉萨 甘孜州 1 合计 36
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