西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征

白尧; 吉兆华; 张辉; 冀贞浩; 刘继锋; 陈志军; 陈保忠; 刘昆; 邵中军

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.05.014

西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.05.014

1.
710032 西安, 空军军医大学军事预防医学系军队防疫与流行病学教研室特殊作业环境危害评估与防治教育部重点实验室
2.
710054 西安, 西安市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(81803289);军事医学创新工程基金资助项目(18CXZ011);军队生物安全基金资助项目(A3705031902, A3702031906)

详细信息

通讯作者:
邵中军, E-mail:13759981783@163.com

中图分类号: R544.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-03-09
- 修回日期: 2020-03-23
- 刊出日期: 2020-05-10

Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Xi'an

1.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an 710032, China
2.
Department of Infection Disease Control and Prevention, Xian Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Xi'an 710054, China

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China(81803289); Military Medicine Innovation Fund(18CXZ011); Military Biosafety special Projects(A3705031902, A3702031906)

More Information

Corresponding author: SHAO Zhong-jun, E-mail:13759981783@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的流行规律, 为优化疫情防控策略提供科学依据。方法采用Excel 2007、SPSS 18.0、ArcGIS 10.3软件对COVID-19疫情数据进行描述性流行病学分析; 采用内插法计算COVID-19的潜伏期。结果西安市截至2020年3月6日累计报告COVID-19确诊病例120例、疑似病例738例, 报告发病率约为1.20/10万; 死亡1例, 病死率为0.83%。确诊病例以轻症为主(92.50%), 男性发病数(63例)多于女性(57例), 41~50岁病例数最多(21.97%)。发病高峰出现在2020年1月25日和1月31日。高发病地区主要分布在主城区的4个街道办事处(21.67%, 26/120)。108例出院病例的平均住院时间为16.00(15.58±5.45)d。全市累计发生23起聚集性疫情, 二代病例的平均续发率为31.73%, 其中13起(56.52%)的聚集性疫情发生在家庭内。西安市COVID-19的平均潜伏期为9 d。累计报告无症状感染者25例, 占SARS-Cov-19感染者的比例为17.24%(25/145)。结论西安市COVID-19疫情整体划分为二个阶段, 病例呈现随机的灶状分布, 未出现当地大范围传播, 需警惕家庭聚集性和无症状感染者传播的风险。
- 新型冠状病毒肺炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 潜伏期 /
- 无症状感染者
Abstract: Objective To explore the epidemic feature of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases(COVID-19) in Xi'an, so as to provide scientific basis for optimizing the control strategy of COVID-19. Methods Excel 2007, SPSS 18.0 and ArcGIS 10.3 software were used to describe the distribution of the disease as well as aggregated epidemic feature. The latent period of COVID-19 in Xi'an was calculated by interpolation method. Results By March 6 th, 2020, a total of 120 confirmed cases, 738 suspected cases of COVID were reported in Xi'an, with an average incidence of 1.20 per 100 000, and 1 death case with the case-fatality rate of 0.83%. There were more male cases(63) than female(57), most mild cases(92.50%) and aged 41-50 years old cases(21.97%) among confirmed cases. The epidemic curve show that the peak occurred on January 25 th as well as January 31 th, 2020, respectively. The high incidence area was mainly distributed in the four subdistricts of the main urban area of Xi'an city(21.67%, 26/120). The average time of stay in hospital of 108 discharged cases was 16.00 days(15.58±5.45 days). A total of 23 clusters of COVID-19 were occurred in Xi'an, with the average rate of recurrence of the second generation of cases was 31.73%, of which 13 outbreaks(56.52%) occurred in families. The average incubation period of COVID-19 in Xi'an was calculated as 9 days. A total of 25 cases of asymptomatic infection were reported, and accounted for 17.24% of those infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus. Conclusion The overall epidemic curve of Xi'an is divided into two stages. The cases are distributed in random focalization, and there is no local spread in Xi'an. It is necessary to be alert to the risk of family clustering and asymptomatic transmission.
- coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Incubation period /
- Asymptomatic infection

HTML全文

图 1 西安市COVID-19确诊病例发病时间曲线

Figure 1. Epidemic curve of onset of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Xi'an

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 西安市2020年截至3月6日COVID-19确诊病例空间分布(街道办事处/乡镇水平)

Figure 2. Spatial distribution of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Xi'an by March 6th, 2020 (subdistrict or town level)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 西安市COVID-19聚集性疫情发生情况

Table 1. The situation of clusters of COVID-19 in Xi'an

类型	疫情起数	涉及病例总数	二代病例数	易感人数	续发率(%)
家庭内	13	38	18	52	34.62
商场场所	3	18	3	14	21.43
聚餐聚会	3	20	5	11	45.45
工作场所	1	4	3	9	33.33
交通工具	1	4	2	7	28.57
社区感染	1	3	1	5	20.00
院内感染	1	2	1	6	16.67
合计	23	88	33	104	31.73

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 西安市COVID-19确诊病例的潜伏期及暴露日期估算

Table 2. Calculation of incubation period and exposure date of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Xi'an

日期	新发病例数(f)	累计病例数(∑ f)	占比%(P)
1月16日	1	1	0.83
1月17日	2	3	2.50
1月18日	2	5	4.17
1月19日	2	7	5.83
1月20日	2	9	7.50
1月21日	6	15	12.50 (P_B16%)
1月22日	5	20	16.67 (P_O16%)
1月23日(M₁)	6	26	21.67
1月24日	7	33	27.50
1月25日	9	42	35.00
1月26日	8	50	41.67
1月27日(M₀)	8	58	48.33 (P_B50%)
1月28日	7	65	54.17 (P_O50%)
1月29日	7	72	60.00
1月30日	5	77	64.17
1月31日	9	86	71.67
2月1日	7	93	77.50
2月2日	7	100	83.33 (P_B84%)
2月3日(M₂)	4	104	86.67 (P_O84%)
2月4日	4	108	90.00
2月5日	2	110	91.67
2月6日	3	113	94.17
2月7日	2	115	95.83
2月8日	2	117	97.50
2月9日	2	119	99.17
2月10日	1	120	100.00

下载: 导出CSV

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