Analysis of epidemic and etiological characteristics of influenza-like cases in Hefei City from 2015 to 2020
-
摘要:
目的 掌握合肥市2015-2019年度流行性感冒(简称流感)活动水平及流行动态,为今后流感防控提供科学依据。 方法 从“中国流感监测信息系统”收集2015-2019年度合肥市哨点医院每日流感样病例(influenza like illness,ILI)数据以及相应的病原学检测结果,分析其流行情况。 结果 2015-2019年度,合肥市3家哨点医院监测ILI累计183 789例,占门/急诊人数的5.06%。ILI发病率有明显的季节性,发病高峰主要在每年的11月至次年4月,各年度ILI发病率差异有统计学意义(χ2 =484.793,P<0.001)。实验室共接收样本17 442份,检测结果阳性4 925份,占28.24%,高阳性率集中在12月至次年4月,不同月份阳性率差异有统计学意义(χ2 =2 567.306,P<0.001)。从分型上看,主要为Victoria型和季H3型。ILI发病率和病原学阳性率之间呈正相关(r=0.491,P=0.021)。 结论 2015-2019年度合肥市流感活动呈现冬季和夏季2个高峰,不同流感病毒亚型混合流行。 Abstract:Objective To explore the activity level and epidemic dynamics of influenza in Hefei City from 2015 to 2019, and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of influenza in the future. Methods Data of daily influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and corresponding etiological surveillance information were collected from "China Influenza Surveillance Information System" to analyze the influenza epidemic from 2015 to 2019 in Hefei City. Results A total of 183 789 ILI cases were reported in 3 sentinel hospitals in Hefei City from 2015 to 2019, accounting for 5.06% of the total number of outpatients visits and emergency departments visits. The peak of ILI cases was mainly from November of the current year to April of the following year, and the difference of positive rate in different months was statistically difference (χ2=484.793, P < 0.001). The laboratory received a total of 17 442 samples, of which 4 925 were positive, which accounting for 28.24% of the total number of samples submitted for inspection. The high positive rate was from December to April of the following year, and there was statistically different in different months (χ2=2 567.306, P < 0.001). Besides, the main subtype of influenza viruses was Victoria and H3 types. There was a positive correlation between the prevalence of ILI and the positive rate of etiology(r=0.491, P=0.021). Conclusions The influenza epidemic peaked in winter and summer from 2015 to 2019, and there was a mixed epidemic of influenza virus subtypes. -
Key words:
- Influenza /
- Influenza-like cases /
- Influenza surveillance
-
表 1 2015-2019年度合肥市ILI分布
Table 1. Distribution of ILI in Hefei City from 2015 to 2019
年份
(年)门/急诊病例数(N) ILI(n) ILI发病率(%) 2015 699 486 36 576 5.23 2016 722 400 34 659 4.80 2017 834 504 39 625 4.75 2018 653 368 34 689 5.31 2019 721 474 38 240 5.30 合计 3 631 232 183 789 5.06 表 2 2015-2019年度合肥市ILI年龄分布[n(%)]
Table 2. Age distribution of ILI in Hefei City from 2015 to 2019 [n(%)]
年份(年) 年龄(岁) 合计(N) 0~<5 5~<15 15~<25 25~<60 ≥60 2015 23 762(64.97) 7 505(20.52) 1 438(3.93) 2 919(7.98) 952(2.60) 36 576 2016 22 654(65.36) 7 806(22.52) 1 040(3.00) 2 324(6.71) 835(2.41) 34 659 2017 26 012(65.65) 8 854(22.34) 1 467(3.70) 2 623(6.62) 669(1.69) 39 625 2018 25 609(73.82) 7 086(20.43) 557(1.61) 1 134(3.27) 303(0.87) 34 689 2019 25 080(65.59) 11 376(29.75) 549(1.44) 1 092(2.86) 143(0.37) 38 240 合计 123 117(66.99) 42 627(23.19) 5 051(2.75) 10 092(5.49) 2 902(1.58) 183 789 注:括号外表示ILI例数(n),括号内表示各年龄组ILI构成比(%)。 表 3 2015-2019年度合肥市ILI阳性率分布情况
Table 3. Distribution of positive rate of ILI in Hefei City from 2015 to 2019
年份(年) 采样数(N) 阳性数(n) 阳性率(%) 2015 3 291 399 12.12 2016 3 631 1 017 28.01 2017 4 105 1 236 30.11 2018 2 682 535 19.95 2019 3 733 1 738 46.56 合计 17 442 4 925 28.24 表 4 2015-2019年度合肥市病原学监测性别分布
Table 4. Gender distribution of etiology monitoring in Hefei City from 2015 to 2019
性别 病原学阳性[%(n/N)] 病原学分型(份) 新甲H1型 季H3型 Victoria型 Yamagata型 其他a 男 28.74(2 529/8 800) 658 676 830 333 32 女 27.73(2 396/8 642) 598 668 779 339 12 合计 28.24(4 925/17 442) 1 256 1 344 1 609 672 44 注:a其他中包含H7、H9等病原学分型。 -
[1] 王炜翔. 南京市2006~2013年流感流行特征及ARIMA模型的应用[D]. 南京: 东南大学, 2015.Wang WX. Influenza epidemic characteristics and application of ARIMA model in Nanjing from 2006 to 2013[D]. Nanjing: Southeast University, 2015. [2] 范瑾. 山西省流行性感冒的流行特征及基于小波-ARIMA模型的预测效果研究[D]. 太原: 山西医科大学, 2018.Fan J. Analysis on the epidemic characteristics of influenza in Shanxi Province and the effect of early warning based on wavelet-ARIMA model [D]. Taiyuan: Shanxi Medical University, 2018. [3] Kumar V. Influenza in children [J]. Indian J Pediatr, 2017, 84(2): 139-143. DOI: 10.1007/s12098-016-2232-x. [4] 王国强, 曹静, 王冬梅, 等. 2009-2019年德州市流感流行特征及病原学分析[J]. 预防医学论坛, 2020, 26(6): 434-439. DOI: 10.16406/j.pmt.issn.1672-9153.2020.06.010.Wang GQ, Cao J, Wang DM, et al. Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and etiology of influenza in Dezhou City from 2009 to 2019[J]. Prev Med Tribune, 2020, 26(6): 434-439. DOI: 10.16406/j.pmt.issn.1672-9153.2020.06.010. [5] 王璐璐, 孙海波, 孙佰红, 等. 辽宁省2014-2017监测年度流感流行特征及变化趋势[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2019, 35(3): 352-354. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1120767.Wang LL, Sun HB, Sun BH, et al. Variation trend and prevalence characteristics of influenza in Liaoning Province, 2014-2017[J]. Chin J Public Heal, 2019, 35(3): 352-354. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1120767. [6] 孙佰红, 王璐璐, 于伟, 等. 辽宁省2010-2014年流感流行特征及变化趋势[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(1): 45-47. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-14.Sun BH, Wang LL, Yu W, et al. Variation tendency and epidemiologic characteristics of influenza in Liao- ning Province, 2010- 2014[J]. Chin J Public Heal, 2016, 32(1): 45-47. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-01-14. [7] 冯录召. 急性呼吸道感染住院病例病毒性病原谱及流感季节性研究[D]. 北京: 中国疾病预防控制中心, 2014.Feng LZ. Study on viral etiologiesof hospitalized acute respiratory infection and influenza seasonality in China [D]. Beijing: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2014. [8] 吴照春, 徐四清, 叶和义, 等. 安徽省安庆市2014-2019年度流感监测结果[J]. 中国热带医学杂志, 2020, 20(3): 254-258. DOI: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2020.03.13.Wu ZC, Xu SQ, Ye HY, et al. Influenza surveillance in Anqing, Anhui, 2014-2019[J]. China Trop Med, 2020, 20(3): 254-258. DOI: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2020.03.13. [9] 钱程, 陈聪, 祖荣强, 等. 常州市2010-2016年流感监测的流行病学特征分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2017, 21(11): 1123-1127. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.11.011.Qian C, Chen C, Zu RQ, et al. Epidemiological characteristics analysis of influenza surveillance in Changzhou city from 2010 to 2016[J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2017, 21(11): 1123-1127. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.11.011. [10] 张珺. 萍乡市安源区2014年-2019年流行性感冒流行病学特征分析[J]. 基层医学论坛, 2020, 24(29): 4254-4255. DOI: 10.19435/j.1672-1721.2020.29.070.Zhang J. Epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Anyuan District, Pingxiang City from 2014 to 2019[J]. Med Forum, 2020, 24(29): 4254-4255. DOI: 10.19435/j.1672-1721.2020.29.070. [11] 杜宇, 田媛媛, 许颖, 等. 新冠肺炎疫情下流感病原学检测结果分析及防控策略探讨[J]. 临床和实验医学杂志, 2020, 19(7): 683-687. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-4695.2020.07.004.Du Y, Tian YY, Xu Y, et al. Prevention and control strategy of COVID-19 from the results of etiological detection of influenza [J]. J Clin Exp Med, 2020, 19(7): 683-687. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-4695.2020.07.004. [12] 孙伟, 高洁, 马莹, 等. 2009-2018年宁夏流行性感冒流行特征[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2020, 24(6): 691-695, 710. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.014.Sun W, Gao J, MA Y, et al. Analysis on influenza surveillance data in Ningxia from 2009 to 2018[J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2020, 24(6): 691-695, 710. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.014. [13] Grant WB, Lahore H, McDonnell SL, et al. Evidence that vitamin D supplementation could reduce risk of influenza and COVID-19 infections and deaths [J]. Nutrients, 2020, 12(4): E988. DOI: 10.3390/nu12040988. [14] 罗道清. 接种流感疫苗对流感疾病的预防控制作用分析[J]. 临床医学工程, 2020, 27(8): 1035-1036. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-4659.2020.08.1035.Luo DQ. Analysis of the prevention and control effect of influenza vaccination on influenza diseases [J]. Clin Med Eng, 2020, 27(8): 1035-1036. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-4659.2020.08.1035. [15] 刘元宝, 江湖大川, 李靖, 等. 疫苗接种对中国传染病防控事业的巨大贡献[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(8): 890-893, 898. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.08.002.Liu YB, Jiang HDC, Li JX, et al. The great contribution of vaccination to the prevention and control of communicable diseases in China [J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2019, 23(8): 890-893, 898. DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.08.002. -