Temporal trend of notifiable infectious disease with rash and fever syndrome in Gansu students, 2010-2019
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摘要:
目的 分析2010―2019年甘肃省6~22岁学生人群发热伴出疹性法定报告传染病发病率的长期趋势，为发热伴出疹症候群监测提供依据。 方法 采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2010―2019年甘肃省6~22岁学生人群发热伴出疹性法定报告传染病发病率的长期趋势，并利用年度变化百分比(annual percent change，APC)与平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change，AAPC)估计总体及不同疾病、传播途径与病原体的趋势。 结果 2010―2019年甘肃省6~22岁学生人群猩红热、布鲁氏菌病(布病)与HIV/AIDS报告发病率在研究期间APC(95% CI)分别以[14.76%(3.66%~27.05%)，P=0.008]、[24.88%(7.86%~44.60%)，P=0.003]与[12.08%(1.73%~30.11%)，P=0.030]上升；人畜共患病和细菌性传染病的报告发病率AAPC分别以33.80%和15.09%攀升(均P＜0.001)。 结论 甘肃省学生人群猩红热、布病及HIV/AIDS报告发病率在2010―2019年呈上升趋势，未来应加强对人畜共患病及细菌性传染病相关的发热伴出疹症候群监测。 -
关键词:
- 公共卫生监测 /
- 发热伴出疹 /
- 学生 /
- Joinpoint回归模型
Abstract:Objective To determine the temporal trend of notifiable infectious disease with rash and fever syndrome reported in Gansu students during 2010-2019, and to provide guidance for syndromic surveillance of rash and fever illness. Methods Joinpoint regression model was applied to determine the temporal trend of yearly morbidity of notifiable infectious disease with rash and fever among Gansu students aged 6-22 years during 2010-2019. And the overall, diseases-specific, route-of-transmission specific, and pathogen-type specific annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percent changes (AAPC) were estimated with respectively. Results Reported morbidities of scarlet fever, brucellosis, and HIV/AIDS in Gansu students aged 6-22 years were increased with APCs of [14.76%(3.66%-27.05%), P=0.008], [24.88%(7.86%-44.60%), P=0.003], and [12.08%(1.73%-30.11%), P=0.030] respectively during 2010-2019 (P < 0.050). And reported morbidities of zoonosis and bacterial infectious diseases were increased with AAPCs of 33.80% and 15.09%, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions Scarlet fever, brucellosis, and HIV/AIDS are increasing in Gansu students during 2010-2019, and syndromic surveillance of rash and fever illness over zoonosis and bacterial infectious diseases should be strengthened further. -
图 1 2010―2019年甘肃省6~22岁学生群体发热伴出疹性法定报告传染病发病率Joinpoint回归模型分析结果
APC：年度变化百分比；AAPC：平均年度变化百分比；A1：总体；A2：性别；A3：教育阶段；B1：手足口病；B2：风疹；B3：猩红热；B4：麻疹；B5：梅毒；B6：布鲁氏菌病；B7：HIV/AIDS；B8：其他疾病；C1：呼吸道/接触传播；C2：肠道传播；C3：性传播；C4：人畜共患；D1：病毒；D2：细菌；D3：其他病原体类型。
a：差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05)。Figure 1. Reported incidences of notifiable infectious disease with rash and fever syndrome in Gansu students during 2010―2019: results of Joinpoint regression model analyses
APC: annual percent change; AAPC: average annual percent change; A1:total; A2:gender; A3:education attainment; B1:hand, foot, and mouth disease; B2:rubella; B3:scarlet fever; B4: measles; B5:syphilis; B6:brucellosis; B7:HIV/AIDS; B8:other diseases; C1:airborne/contact; C2:intestinal; C3:sexual; C4:zoonosis; D1:virus; D2:bacterial; D3:other pathogens types.
a: statistically significant difference (P < 0.05). -
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