云南省2005—2022年百日咳流行特征与发病趋势分析

郭卉; 卢冉; 戚艳波; 李真晖; 张怡雯; 林燕

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.06.003

云南省2005—2022年百日咳流行特征与发病趋势分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.06.003

云南省疾病预防控制中心疫情监测/突发公共卫生事件处置中心，昆明 650022

详细信息

通讯作者:
林燕，E-mail: dinky28@qq.com

中图分类号: R183.3
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-12-05
- 修回日期: 2024-01-23
- 网络出版日期: 2024-07-13
- 刊出日期: 2024-06-10

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of pertussis in Yunnan Province, 2005-2022

Center for Epidemic Surveillance/Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China

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Corresponding author: LIN Yan, E-mail: dinky28@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析云南省2005—2022年百日咳流行特征与发病趋势。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统对云南省2005—2022年百日咳疫情报告和监测数据进行分析，使用描述性流行病学方法分析百日咳的分布特征，对地区间发病率进行聚类分析。使用Joinpoint回归模型分析发病率时间变化趋势。结果 2005—2022年，云南省累计报告百日咳病例2 115例，年均发病率为0.253 4/10万。病例以0~＜5岁组儿童为主(79.95%)，0~＜1岁组儿童年均发病率最高(11.440 4/10万)，2018年后有成年病例报告。各月均有病例报告，二季度与三季度发病率较高，分别为0.073 8/10万和0.073 3/10万。云南省2005—2022年年均发病率呈上升趋势，平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change, AAPC)为9.93%。2005—2014年呈下降趋势，年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)为-11.82%，2015—2022年呈快速上升趋势，APC为50.62%。高流行地区为云南省玉溪市，上升较大地区为玉溪市、昭通市、西双版纳傣族自治州。结论云南省2005—2022年百日咳年均发病率总体呈上升趋势，2015年后快速上升。二、三季度为百日咳高发季节, 0~＜5岁儿童为百日咳高发人群，各地区间发病率和增长趋势存在差异。建议提升诊断和监测能力，加强云南省重点地区、季节和人群的疫情防控。
- 百日咳 /
- 流行特征 /
- 发病趋势
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of pertussis in Yunnan from 2005 to 2022, and to provide evidence for improving prevention and control strategy. Methods Pertussis epidemic report and surveillance data in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2022 were analyzed through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the disease distribution characteristics. Cluster analysis was used to analyze inter-regional incidence. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of incidence. Results From 2005 to 2022, 2 115 pertussis cases were reported in Yunnan, with an average annual incidence rate of 0.253 4 per 100 000. The cases were mostly in 0-< 5 years group (1 691, 79.95%), the highest average annual incidence rate was in the 0-< 1 years group (11.440 4 per 100 000), adult cases had reports annually since 2018. The cases were reported every month, and in the third and second quarters the average incidence rate was higher, which was 0.073 8 per 100 000 and 0.073 3 per 100 000. The average annual incidence rate showed an upward trend in 2005-2022, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 9.93%. It showed a downward trend in 2005-2014, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -11.82%, and a rapid upward trend in 2015-2022, with APC of 50.62%. The highest endemic area was Yuxi, and the areas with obvious increases was Yuxi, Zhaotong, and Xishuangbanna. Conclusions The average annual incidence of pertussis in Yunnan Province is on the rise in general and increased rapidly after 2015. Pertussis still mainly happens infants and young children aged 0-< 5 years, the second and third quarter are the high incidence season. The incidence rates and growth trends are different between every area. We suggest enhancing diagnosis and surveillance capabilities and strengthening epidemic prevention and control in key regions, seasons and populations.
- Pertussis /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Incidence trend

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图 1 2005—2022年云南省百日咳分年龄组年均发病率

Figure 1. Average annual incidence rate of pertussis by age group in Yunnan Province, 2005 to 2022

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图 2 2005—2022年云南省地区百日咳发病率变化

Figure 2. Change of pertussis incidence rate by region in Yunnan Province, 2005 to 2022

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图 3 2005—2022年云南省百日咳发病情况

Figure 3. Incidence of pertussis in Yunnan Province, 2005 to 2022

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表 1 2005—2022年云南省百日咳发病率Joinpoint分析结果

Table 1. Joinpoint analysis of pertussis incidence in Yunnan Province, 2005 to 2022

季度Quarter	年度Year	APC值value /%	AAPC值value /%	t值value	P值value	APC值value(95% CI)/%
合计Total	2005—2014	-11.813	9.934 ^①	-3.653	0.003	-18.132~-5.006
	2015—2022	50.620		5.123	＜0.001	26.728~79.018
一季度First quarter	2005—2015	-13.711	10.012 ^①	-4.755	＜0.001	-19.302~-7.732
	2016—2022	71.721		5.123	＜0.001	41.765~108.007
二季度Second quarter	2005—2014	-18.191	2.920 ^①	-6.156	＜0.001	-23.757~-12.219
	2015—2022	41.927		7.215	＜0.001	27.800~57.616
三季度Third quarter	2005—2016	1.675	19.246 ^①	0.583	0.569	-4.390~8.133
	2017—2022	74.823		5.123	0.011	17.762~159.534
四季度Fourth quarter	2005—2016	-5.246	21.115	-4.755	0.380	-16.661~7.733
	2017—2022	108.171		5.123	0.048	10.806~291.090
注：APC，年度变化百分比；AAPC，平均年度变化百分比。 ① 2005—2022年AAPC值有统计学意义。 Note: APC，annual percent change；AAPC，average annual percent change. ① AAPC value from 2005 to 2022 is statistically significant.

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