Analysis on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly in Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2022
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摘要:
目的 分析2017—2022年江苏省老年人群肺结核时空分布特征，为江苏省老年人群肺结核防控策略的实施和调整提供科学依据。 方法 收集2017—2022年江苏省老年人群肺结核的病例数据和各县(区)常住老年人口数，利用ArcGIS 10.7软件进行可视化作图，通过Geoda 1.18.0软件进行全局、局部空间自相关分析，探索其空间聚集性。利用SaTScan 10.1软件进行空间扫描分析探讨时空聚集性。 结果 江苏省老年人群肺结核报告发病率从2017年的78.99/10万下降至2022年的55.17/10万(χ趋势2=439.493，P＜0.001)，年均发病率为64.14/10万。各年度Moran's I值为0.243~0.600，整体呈空间聚集性分布。时空扫描分析探索到5个时空聚集区域(P＜0.05)，其中一级聚集区覆盖22个县(区)，二级聚集区覆盖3个县(区)，三级聚集区覆盖5个县(区)，四级聚集区覆盖14个县(区)，聚集时间均为2017—2019年。 结论 2017—2022年江苏省老年人群肺结核发病率呈下降趋势，但仍高于全人群，且存在空间聚集性，应对肺结核发病高聚集区域制定有针对性的防控策略。 Abstract:Objective This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly population in Jiangsu Province, China, from 2017 to 2022. The findings will provide a scientific basis for implementing and adjusting pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control strategies in the province. Methods We collected data on pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in the elderly population of Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2022, along with the corresponding elderly population figures for each county. ArcGIS 10.7 software was used for visualization mapping. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted using Geoda 1.18.0 software to explore spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis cases. Finally, SaTScan 10.1 software was employed for spatiotemporal scan analysis to identify areas with spatiotemporal aggregation. Results The reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly population of Jiangsu Province decreased significantly from 78.99/100 000 in 2017 to 55.17/100 000 in 2022 (χtrend2=439.493, P < 0.001), with an average annual incidence rate of 64.14/100 000. The Moran's I values ranged from 0.243 to 0.600, indicating an overall spatial clustering distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis cases. Spatiotemporal scan analysis identified five statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters (P < 0.05), including a primary cluster encompassing 22 counties, a secondary cluster of 3 counties, a tertiary cluster of 5 counties, and a quaternary cluster of 14 counties. And the time of spatiotemporal aggregation was 2017-2019. Conclusions Despite a year-by-year decrease, the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly population of Jiangsu Province remains higher than the general population. Furthermore, the presence of evident spatial clustering necessitates focused attention in these areas for improved pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control strategies. -
Key words:
- Elderly population /
- Pulmonary tuberculosis /
- Spatial-temporal analysis
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图 1 2017—2022年江苏省老年人群肺结核病例年平均发病率分布情况
Figure 1. Distribution of average annual incidence of tuberculosis in the elderly population in Jiangsu Province
图 2 2017—2022年江苏省老年人群肺结核年平均发病率局部空间自相关分析
Figure 2. Local autocorrelation analysis of the average annual incidence of tuberculosis in the elderly population in Jiangsu Province during 2017-2022
表 1 2017—2022年江苏省老年人群肺结核病例时空扫描分析结果
Table 1. Results of spatiotemporal scanning of tuberculosis cases in the elderly population in Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2022
聚集类别
Clustering category聚集时期/年
Clustering period/year聚集数量
Clustering number聚集半径/km
Clustering radius/km实际病例数
Actual number of cases期望病例数
Expected number of casesRR值
valueLLR值
valueP值
value一级The first 2017—2019 22 89.491 5 965 3 959.131 1.584 489.884 ＜0.001 二级The second 2017—2019 3 43.390 1 6373 10 491.409 2.085 300.342 ＜0.001 三级The third 2017—2019 5 41.055 11 142 8 134.249 1.466 80.108 ＜0.001 四级The fourth 2017—2019 14 48.320 3 234 2 50.913 1.176 42.866 ＜0.001 五级The fifth 2017 2 30.820 317 244.152 1.298 9.983 0.029 注：LLR，对数似然比。
Note: LLR，log-likelihood ratio.
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