A prospective cohort study on the long-term fasting plasma glucose variability and risk of stroke among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
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摘要:
目的 探讨空腹血糖(fasting plasma glucose, FPG)长期变异性与2型糖尿病(type 2 diabetes mellitus, T2DM)患者脑卒中发病风险的关联。 方法 基于江苏省常熟市社区糖尿病患者队列人群,共6 247人纳入分析。≥3次FPG值计算FPG长期变异性指标,包括FPG标准差(standard deviation, SD)、变异系数(coefficient of variation, CV)、平均真实变异(average real variability, ARV)和独立于均值的变异系数(variability independent of mean, VIM)。利用Cox比例风险回归模型探索FPG长期变异性与T2DM患者脑卒中发病风险的关联,并根据年龄、性别以及糖尿病用药史进行分层分析。 结果 队列人群平均随访7.26年,共观察到脑卒中发病1 080人,发病密度为23.81/1 000人年。以FPG长期变异性指标三分位分组(T1~T3),调整相关因素后,Cox比例风险回归模型分析显示,与T1组相比,FPG-SD、FPG-CV、FPG-ARV和FPG-VIM的T2、T3组发生脑卒中的风险均增加,并呈上升趋势(P趋势 < 0.01)。FPG-SD、FPG-CV、FPG-ARV和FPG-VIM每增加1个SD,脑卒中发生风险均增加,HR值(95% CI)分别为1.09(1.02~1.16)、1.09(1.03~1.16)、1.08(1.02~1.16)和1.10(1.03~1.16);缺血性脑卒中的发病风险均增加,HR值(95% CI)分别为1.11(1.03~1.19),1.11(1.04~1.18),1.08(1.00~1.15),1.04(1.04~1.17);FPG-ARV每增加1个SD,出血性脑卒中的发病风险增加,HR值(95% CI)为1.25(1.03~1.53)。分层分析显示,在年龄≥65岁患者(FPG-CV除外)、女性和单用降糖药的T2DM患者中,FPG-SD、FPG-CV、FPG-ARV和FPG-VIM每增加1个SD,其脑卒中发病风险均增加(均P<0.05)。 结论 FPG长期变异性与T2DM患者脑卒中发病风险呈正相关,应降低FPG长期变异性。 Abstract:Objective To investigate the association between long-term fasting plasma glucose (FPG) variability and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods The participants were from a community-based diabetes cohort established in Changshu from 2013 to 2014 (n=6 247). Long-term glucose variability was assessed using the standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), average real variability (ARV), and variability independent of the mean (VIM) across FPG measurements obtained at the more than three visits. The risk of stroke in patients with T2DM was estimated using Cox proportional risk regression models for SD, CV, ARV, VIM and stratified analysis were conducted according to age, gender and history of diabetes medication. Results After an average 7.26 years of follow-up, there were 1 080 incident cases of stroke, giving a crude incidence rate of 23.81/1 000 person-years. The long-term fasting plasma glucose variability was grouped by tertiles (T1-T3). After adjustment, Cox regression analysis showed that compared with the T1 group, FPG-SD, FPG-CV, FPG-ARV and FPG-VIM in T2 and T3 groups were significantly increased the risks of stroke (Ptrend < 0.01). Per 1 standard deviation(SD) higher of FPG-SD, FPG-CV, FPG-ARV and FPG-VIM, the risk of stroke was significantly increased, the HR (95% CI) were 1.09(1.02-1.16), 1.09(1.03-1.16), 1.08(1.02-1.16) and 1.10(1.03-1.16) respectively. Per 1 SD higher of FPG-SD, FPG-CV, FPG-ARV and FPG-VIM, the risk of ischemic stroke was significantly increased, the HR (95% CI) were 1.11(1.03-1.19), 1.11(1.04-1.18), 1.08(1.00-1.15), 1.04(1.04-1.17), respectively. Per 1 SD higher of FPG-ARV, the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was significantly increased, the HR(95% CI) was 1.25(1.05-1.48). Stratified analysis showed that in the patients of ≥65 years of age (except FPG-CV), women and oral hypoglycemic agents, per 1 SD higher of FPG-SD, FPG-CV, FPG-ARV and FPG-VIM, the risk of ischemic stroke increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions Long-term FPG glycemic variability is positively associated with the risk of stroke in type 2 diabetes patients. -
Key words:
- Fasting plasma glucose variability /
- Type 2 diabetes mellitus /
- Stroke /
- Cohort study
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表 1 研究对象按FPG-SD三分位分组的基线特征
Table 1. Baseline characteristics of study participants grouped by FPG-SD tertile
特征
Feature合计 ①
Total ①FPG-SD的三分位数FPG-SD tertile $\begin{equation} \chi^2 \end{equation}$/F/H值value P值
valueT1①
(<0.89 mmol/L)T2①
(0.89~<1.72 mmol/L)T3①
(≥1.72 mmol/L)人数Number of people 6 247 2 082 2 083 2 082 年龄/岁Age/years 64.51±7.82 65.12±7.98 64.35±7.47 64.07±7.96 19.541 < 0.001 性别Gender 17.443 < 0.001 男性Male 2 144(34.56) 658(31.60) 702(33.70) 784(37.50) 女性Female 4 103(65.68) 1 424(34.71) 1 381(33.66) 1 298(31.63) 文化程度Education degree 6.040 0.049 未接受正规教育No formal education 2 353(37.67) 835(40.11) 779(37.40) 739(35.50) 小学Primary school 2 833(45.35) 892(42.84) 960(46.09) 981(47.12) 初中Junior high school 821(13.14) 279(13.40) 260(12.48) 282(13.54) 高中及以上Senior high school and above 240(3.84) 76(3.65) 84(4.03) 80(3.84) 家庭年收入/万元Annual household income/10 000 yuan 1.134 0.567 ≤3 1 452(23.24) 482(23.15) 465(22.32) 505(24.26) >3~ < 11 3 412(54.62) 1 154(55.43) 1 152(55.31) 1 106(53.12) 11~ < 16 997(15.96) 314(15.08) 327(15.70) 356(17.10) ≥16 386(6.18) 132(6.34) 139(6.67) 115(5.52) 吸烟Smoking 1 447(23.16) 418(20.08) 467(22.42) 562(26.99) 28.946 < 0.001 饮酒Alcohol 1 152(18.54) 336(16.22) 389(18.78) 427(20.63) 13.462 0.001 体力活动水平/(MET-h·day-1) Physical activity level/(MET-h·day-1) 8.00(2.57, 16.00) 8.00(2.73, 16.00) 8.00(2.57, 16.00) 7.33(2.17, 14.57) 1.311 0.519 糖尿病病程/年Duration of diabetes/years 4.00(2.00, 7.00) 4.00(2.00, 7.00) 5.00(3.00, 9.00) 6.00(4.00, 12.00) 362.172 < 0.001 基线BMI /(kg·m-2) Baseline BMI /(kg·m-2) 24.72±3.21 24.64±3.21 24.86±3.20 24.67±3.22 6.601 0.037 基线FPG/(mmol·L-1) Baseline FPG/(mmol·L-1) 8.20(6.95, 9.82) 7.21(6.31, 8.13) 8.33(7.20, 9.44) 9.82(8.13, 12.16) 1 397.020 < 0.001 FPG-CV /% 0.15(0.09, 0.24) 0.08(0.05, 0.10) 0.15(0.13, 0.18) 0.27(0.23, 0.35) 5 056.838 < 0.001 FPG-ARV /(mmol·L-1) 3.21(1.57, 5.14) 2.52(0.68, 4.34) 2.48(1.47, 4.50) 4.44(2.87, 6.44) 885.122 < 0.001 FPG-VIM /% 2.10(1.35, 3.19) 1.16(0.80, 1.54) 2.19(1.70, 2.82) 3.44(2.66, 4.40) 3 622.347 < 0.001 疾病史Diseases history 21.958 < 0.001 高血压Hypertension 3 905(65.99) 1 374(65.99) 1 306(62.07) 1 225>(62.51) 血脂异常Dyslipidemia 700(11.21) 226(10.85) 257(12.34) 217(10.42) 2.111 0.348 肾病Kidney disease 207(3.31) 79(3.79) 66(3.17) 62(2.98) 4.451 0.108 糖尿病用药史History of diabetes medication 604.840 < 0.001 未用药No medication 1 102(17.64) 695(33.38) 274(13.16) 133(6.39) 单用降糖药Antidiabetic drugs alone 4 197(67.18) 1 220(58.60) 1 535(73.69) 1 442(69.26) 单用胰岛素Insulin alone 630(10.08) 112(5.38) 184(8.83) 334(16.04) 联合用药Drug combination 318(5.10) 55(2.64) 90(4.32) 173(8.31) 注:FPG,空腹血糖;SD,标准差;MET,代谢当量;CV,变异系数;ARV,独立于均值的变异系数;VIM,平均真实变异。
①以人数(占比/%)或x±s或M(P25, P75)表示。
Note: FPG,fasting plasma glucose; SD, standard deviation; MET, metabolic equivalent; CV, coefficient of variation; ARV, variability independent of mean; VIM, average real variability.
① Number of people (proportion/%) or x±s or M(P25, P75).表 2 FPG长期变异性指标与T2DM患者脑卒中风险的Cox回归分析
Table 2. Cox regression analysis of long-term FPG variability and stroke among patients with T2DM
变异指标
Variation index随访人年
Person-years of follow-up发病人数
Number of the infected发病密度(/1 000人年)
Incidence density/1 000 person-yearsHR值value (95% CI) 模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型3
Model 3FPG-SD T1(< 0.89 mmol/L) 15 358.80 304 19.79 1.00 1.00 1.00 T2(0.89~ < 1.72 mmol/L) 15 070.42 372 24.68 1.39(1.12~1.52) 1.26(1.08~1.47) 1.24(1.06~1.46) T3(≥1.72 mmol/L) 14 949.56 404 27.02 1.46(1.25~1.69) 1.34(1.15~1.56) 1.28(1.07~1.52) P趋势值①Ptrend value① < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 每增加1个SD Each increment of 1 SD 1.14(1.08~1.20) 1.11(1.05~1.17) 1.09(1.02~1.16) FPG-CV T1(< 0.11%) 15 302.68 305 19.93 1.00 1.00 1.00 T2(0.11%~ < 0.20%) 15 154.56 362 23.89 1.24(1.07~1.45) 1.20(1.03~1.40) 1.18(1.01~1.38) T3(≥0.20%) 14 921.54 413 27.68 1.45(1.25~1.69) 1.36(1.16~1.58) 1.29(1.09~1.51) P趋势值①Ptrend value① < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 每增加1个SD Each increment of 1 SD 1.15(1.09~1.21) 1.12(1.05~1.18) 1.09(1.03~1.16) FPG-ARV T1(< 2.12 mmol/L) 15 580.96 289 18.55 1.00 1.00 1.00 T2(2.12~ < 4.43 mmol/L) 15 081.39 361 23.94 1.17(1.00~1.36) 1.13(0.98~1.32) 1.09(0.93~1.28) T3(≥4.43 mmol/L) 14 716.46 430 29.22 1.42(1.22~1.65) 1.33(1.14~1.56) 1.26(1.07~1.48) P趋势值①Ptrend value① < 0.01 < 0.01 0.01 每增加1个SD Each increment of 1 SD 1.14(1.07~1.21) 1.11(1.04~1.18) 1.08(1.02~1.16) FPG-VIM T1(< 1.59%) 15 296.71 312 20.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 T2(1.59%~ < 2.76%) 15 243.40 364 23.88 1.19(1.02~1.38) 1.16(1.00~1.35) 1.16(0.99~1.35) T3(≥2.76%) 14 838.66 404 27.23 1.35(1.17~1.57) 1.28(1.10~1.49) 1.25(1.07~1.45) P趋势值①Ptrend value① < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01 每增加1个SD Each increment of 1 SD 1.14(1.07~1.20) 1.11(1.05~1.18) 1.10(1.03~1.16) 注:1. FPG,空腹血糖;T2DM,2型糖尿病;CVD,心血管病;SD,标准差;CV,变异系数;ARV,平均真实变异;VIM,独立于均值的变异系数。
2. T1~T3为以FPG长期变异性指标的三分位数进行分组;模型1调整年龄、性别、文化程度和家庭年收入;模型2在模型1的基础上调整吸烟、饮酒、体力活动水平、BMI和糖尿病病程;模型3在模型2的基础上调整基线FPG(对FPG-VIM变异指标不调整基线FPG)、糖尿病用药史以及高血压、血脂异常和肾病疾病史。
① FPG长期变异性指标按照三分位数进行分组,将每组中位数以连续性变量的形式纳入回归模型计算P趋势值。
Note: 1. FPG, fasting plasma glucose; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; CVD, cardiovascular disease; SD, standard deviation; CV, coefficient of variation; ARV, average real variability; VIM, variability independent of mean.
2. The long-term fasting plasma glucose variability was grouped by tertiles (T1-T3). Model 1 was adjusted for age, gender, education degree and annual household income. Model 2 was adjusted for smoking, alcohol, physical activity level, BMI and duration of diabetes on the basis of model 1; On the basis of model 2, model 3 was adjusted for baseline FPG (without adjusting baseline FPG for FPG-VIM) history of diabetes medication, and history of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and kidney disease.
① The long-term fasting plasma glucose variability was grouped by tertiles, and the median of each group was included in the regression model as a continuous variable to calculate the Ptrend value.表 3 FPG长期变异性指标每增加1个SD与T2DM患者脑卒中亚型风险的Cox回归分析
Table 3. Cox regression analysis of each 1 SD increase in FPG long-term variability and stroke subtypes among patients with T2DM
脑卒中亚型
Stroke subtype发病例数
Number of casesHR值value (95%CI) FPG-SD FPG-CV FPG-ARV FPG-VIM 缺血性脑卒中Ischemic stroke 918 1.11(1.03~1.19) 1.11(1.04~1.18) 1.08(1.00~1.15) 1.10(1.04~1.17) 出血性脑卒中Hemorrhagic stroke 102 0.85(0.66~1.10) 0.88(0.70~1.10) 1.25(1.03~1.53) 0.96(0.79~1.17) 注:1. FPG,空腹血糖;T2DM,2型糖尿病;SD,标准差;CV,变异系数;ARV,平均真实变异;VIM,独立于均值的变异系数。
2.表中HR值(95% CI)采用FPG长期变异性指标每增加1个SD进行计算;模型调整年龄、性别、文化程度和家庭年收入、吸烟、饮酒、体力活动水平、BMI和糖尿病病程、基线FPG(对FPG-VIM变异指标不调整基线FPG)、糖尿病用药史以及高血压、血脂异常和肾病疾病史。
Notes: 1. FPG, fasting plasma glucose; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; SD, standard deviation; CV, coefficient of variation; ARV, average real variability; VIM, variability independent of mean.
2. TheHR(95%CI)in the table were calculated using an increase of 1 SD in the FPG long-term variability indicator. The model was adjusted for age, gender, education degree and annual household income, smoking, alcohol, physical activity level, BMI, duration of diabetes, baseline FPG (without adjusting baseline FPG for FPG-VIM), history of diabetes medication, hypertension, dyslipidemia and kidney disease.表 4 FPG长期变异性指标每增加1个SD与T2DM患者脑卒中风险的分层分析
Table 4. Stratified analysis of each 1 SD increase in FPG long-term variability and stroke among patients with T2DM
变量
VariableFPG-SD FPG-CV FPG-ARV FPG-VIM HR值value (95%CI) P值value HR值value (95%CI) P值value HR值value (95%CI) P值value HR值value (95%CI) P值value 年龄/岁Age/years < 65 1.09(0.98~1.20) 0.923 1.10(1.00~1.21) 0.654 1.14(1.04~1.26) 0.061 1.12(1.02~1.22) 0.438 ≥65 1.09(1.00~1.19) 1.08(0.99~1.17) 1.03(0.99~1.07) 1.08(1.00~1.17) 性别Gender 男性Male 1.09(0.99~1.20) 0.425 1.09(0.99~1.20) 0.508 1.04(0.94~1.15) 0.763 1.11(1.02~1.22) 0.711 女性Female 1.09(1.00~1.19) 1.09(1.01~1.18) 1.12(1.03~1.21) 1.09(1.01~1.18) 糖尿病用药史History of diabetes medication 未用药No medication 1.21(0.91~1.62) 0.432 1.11(0.88~1.40) 0.692 1.13(0.92~1.39) 0.077 1.09(0.90~1.33) 0.954 单用降糖药Antidiabetic drugs alone 1.12(1.04~1.22) 1.11(1.03~1.20) 1.13(1.04~1.22) 1.10(1.03~1.19) 单用胰岛素Insulin alone 0.99(0.86~1.15) 1.02(0.88~1.18) 0.84(0.70~1.00) 1.07(0.93~1.23) 联合用药Drug combination 1.16(0.92~1.45) 1.18(0.94~1.49) 1.15(0.91~1.46) 1.20(0.96~1.49) 注:1. FPG,空腹血糖;SD,标准差;T2DM,2型糖尿病;CVD,心血管病;CV,变异系数;ARV,平均真实变异;VIM,独立于均值的变异系数。
2. 表中HR值(95% CI)采用FPG长期变异性指标每增加1个SD进行计算,模型调整年龄、性别、文化程度、家庭年收入、吸烟、饮酒、体力活动水平、BMI、糖尿病病程、基线FPG(对FPG-VIM变异指标不调整基线FPG)、糖尿病用药史以及高血压、血脂异常、肾病疾病史。
Note: 1. FPG, fasting plasma glucose; SD, standard deviation; T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CV, coefficient of variation; ARV, average real variability; VIM, variability independent of mean.
2. The HR(95% CI) in the table were calculated using an increase of 1 SD in the FPG long-term variability indicator. The model was adjusted for age, gender, education degree and annual household income, smoking, alcohol, physical activity level, BMI, duration of diabetes, baseline FPG (without adjusting baseline FPG for FPG-VIM), history of diabetes medication, hypertension, dyslipidemia and kidney disease. -
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