The impact of inhalable particulate matter exposure on daily mortality among residents in five typical cities in Inner Mongolia
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摘要:
目的 探讨内蒙古自治区5个典型城市可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particulate matter, PM10)暴露对居民每日死亡的影响，筛选敏感人群，为相关部门制定空气污染防护措施提供依据。 方法 收集2017―2021年内蒙古自治区5个典型城市城区逐日气象资料、空气污染物浓度和居民死亡资料，采用二阶段统计分析策略(广义相加模型联合Meta分析)，在控制气象因子和时间趋势等混杂因素的基础上构建时间序列模型，分析大气PM10短期暴露对人群死亡的影响。 结果 5个典型城市大气PM10日均浓度为(89.9±98.2)μg/m3，居民总死亡人数为126 401人。Meta分析显示，移动平均lag0~2 d的PM10暴露浓度每升高10 μg/m3，总死亡、男性、女性和循环系统疾病死亡风险分别升高0.16%(95% CI: 0.01%~0.36%)、0.13%(95% CI: 0.01%~0.25%)、0.23%(95% CI: 0.09%~0.37%)和0.21%(95% CI: 0.08%~0.34%)。 结论 内蒙古自治区5个典型城市大气PM10短期暴露增大了当地居民非意外总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的风险，女性死亡风险较高，不同地区死亡风险效应值不同。 Abstract:Objective To investigate the influence of exposure to inhalable particulate matter (PM10) on daily mortality among residents in five representative cities in central and western Inner Mongolia, and dentify sensitive populations and provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate air pollution prevention measures. Methods We collected daily meteorological data, air pollutant concentrations, and resident mortality data from five typical urban areas in Inner Mongolia from 2017 to 2021. Using a two-stage statistical analysis strategy (generalized additive model combined with meta-analysis), we constructed a time series model while controlling for confounding factors such as meteorological conditions and temporal trends. We assessed the effects of short-term exposure to atmospheric PM10 on population mortality. Results During the research period, the daily average concentration of PM10 in the atmosphere of five typical cities was (89.9±98.2) μg/m3, with a total of 126 401 deaths among residents. Meta analysis showed that for every increase in PM10 (lag0-2) exposure concentration 10 μg/m3, the non-accidental total mortality, male, female, and circulatory system disease mortality increased by 0.16%(95% CI: 0.01%-0.36%), 0.13% (95% CI: 0.01%-0.25%), 0.23% (95% CI: 0.09%-0.37%) and 0.21% (95% CI: 0.08%-0.34%), respectively. Conclusions Short-term exposure to atmospheric particulate matter PM10 in five typical cities in Inner Mongolia increases the risk of non-accidental total mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality among local residents. Women are more sensitive than men. The effect values vary slightly in different regions. -
Key words:
- Inhalable particulate matter /
- Population deaths /
- Short-term exposure /
- Sensitive people
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图 1 不同滞后天数PM10对内蒙古自治区5个典型城市居民死亡的影响
A：总死亡；B：呼吸系统疾病死亡；C：循环系统疾病死亡；D：男性；E：女性。
Figure 1. Effects of PM10 with different lag days on deaths in five typical cities in Inner Mongolia
A: non-accidental total death; B: respiratory diseases; C: circulatory diseases; D: male; E: female.
图 2 PM10(lag0~2)每升高10 μg/m3各地区全人群总死亡、男性、女性、循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡增加的百分比
ER：超额危险度。
Figure 2. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 (lag0~2) in each region, the percentage of deaths from the whole population, males, females, respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases increased
ER: excess risk.
表 1 2017―2021年内蒙古自治区5个典型城市气象因素、空气污染物与居民死亡情况
Table 1. Meteorological factors, air pollutants and resident mortality in five typical cities in Inner Mongolia from 2017 to 2021
城市City 居民死亡人数Resident deaths x±s 总死亡
Total deaths男性
Man女性
Woman呼吸系统疾病
Respiratory diseases循环系统疾病
Circulatory diseasesPM10
/(μg·m-3)O3
/(μg·m-3)日均温度/℃
Arerage daily temperature/℃日均相对湿度/℃
Arerage daily relative humidity/%呼和浩特市Hohhot 47 673 28 427 19 246 5 034 23 602 88.6±85.2 94.3±39.5 7.8±12.4 47.8±17.6 包头市Baotou 44 218 26 180 18 038 9 601 19 137 89.4±89.0 92.8±39.3 8.0±12.8 56.8±16.6 巴彦淖尔市Bayannur 14 843 9 134 5 709 1 418 8 503 79.5±70.9 98.5±32.2 8.9±12.4 47.6±15.5 鄂尔多斯市Ordos 6 547 4 094 2 453 808 3 184 83.7±132.6 106.2±33.8 8.2±11.4 45.9±18.8 乌海市Wuhai 13 120 8 208 4 912 1 426 5 786 108.2±100.0 102.3±35.6 9.9±12.9 44.5±16.0 合计Total 126 401 76 043 50 358 18 287 60 212 89.9±98.2 98.8±36.5 8.6±12.4 48.5±17.5 注：PM10，可吸入颗粒物；O3，臭氧。
Note: PM10, inhalable particles matter; O3, Ozone.
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表 2 PM10每升高10μg/m3死亡风险增加的敏感性分析
Table 2. Sensitivity analysis of increased mortality risk per 10μg/m3 increase in PM10
模型Model 空气污染物
Air pollutantsυ 非意外总死亡/% ①
Non-accidental total deaths/% ①呼吸系统疾病死亡/% ①
Deaths from respiratory diseases/% ①循环系统疾病死亡/% ①
Deaths from circulatory diseases/% ①主模型Master model PM10 7 0.16(0.01~0.36) 0.21(-0.03~0.45) 0.21(0.08~0.34) 模型1 Model 1 PM10+O3 7 0.17(0.09~0.25) 0.19(-0.20~0.58) 0.22(0.05~0.38) 模型2 Model 2 PM10 6 0.19(0.10~0.27) 0.23(-0.17~0.62) 0.24(0.07~0.40) 模型3 Model 3 PM10 8 0.18(0.10~0.26) 0.20(-0.18~0.60) 0.23(0.07~0.39) 注：①以超额危险度值(95% CI)表示。
Note：① excess risk value (95% CI).
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