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1990―2019年中国60岁及以上老年人疾病负担趋势分析

魏欣悦 祖力亚尔·塔力甫 钟盼亮 赵艺皓 王云鹤 郑晓瑛 苏彬彬

魏欣悦, 祖力亚尔·塔力甫, 钟盼亮, 赵艺皓, 王云鹤, 郑晓瑛, 苏彬彬. 1990―2019年中国60岁及以上老年人疾病负担趋势分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(11): 1321-1329. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.013
引用本文: 魏欣悦, 祖力亚尔·塔力甫, 钟盼亮, 赵艺皓, 王云鹤, 郑晓瑛, 苏彬彬. 1990―2019年中国60岁及以上老年人疾病负担趋势分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2024, 28(11): 1321-1329. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.013
WEI Xinyue, ZULIYAER Talifu, ZHONG Panliang, ZHAO Yihao, WANG Yunhe, ZHENG Xiaoying, SU Binbin. Trend analysis on the disease burden among Chinese elderly population aged 60 and older from 1990 to 2019[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(11): 1321-1329. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.013
Citation: WEI Xinyue, ZULIYAER Talifu, ZHONG Panliang, ZHAO Yihao, WANG Yunhe, ZHENG Xiaoying, SU Binbin. Trend analysis on the disease burden among Chinese elderly population aged 60 and older from 1990 to 2019[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(11): 1321-1329. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.013

1990―2019年中国60岁及以上老年人疾病负担趋势分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.013
魏欣悦和祖力亚尔·塔力甫为共同第一作者
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2022YFC3600800

中国医学科学院院基科费——人才引进培养项目 2023-RC330-01

人口健康与老龄科学项目 WH10022023035

国家资助博士后研究人员计划 GZC20240134

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    苏彬彬,E-mail: subinbin@sph.pumc.edu.cn

    郑晓瑛,E-mail: zhengxiaoying@sph.pumc.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: R195

Trend analysis on the disease burden among Chinese elderly population aged 60 and older from 1990 to 2019

WEI Xinyue and ZULIYAER Talifu contributed equally to this article
Funds: 

The National Key Research and Development Program of China 2022YFC3600800

The Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Basic Fund-Talent Introduction and Development Project 2023-RC330-01

The Population and Aging Health Science Program WH10022023035

The Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF GZC20240134

More Information
  • 摘要:   目的  分析1990―2019年中国≥60岁老年人疾病负担变化趋势。  方法  利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库提供的中国≥60岁老年人伤残调整寿命年数据,使用该数据库提供的世界人口数作为标准对其进行标化,采用Joinpoint对数线性回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比,检验其长期变化趋势,分析1990―2019年中国≥60岁老年人疾病负担变化趋势。  结果  1990―2019年中国≥60岁老年人一级病因疾病负担均呈下降趋势,其中传染病所造成的疾病负担下降幅度最大,从1990年的6 079.32/10万下降到2019年的2 056.84/10万;非传染性疾病是造成老年人疾病负担的首要原因,2019年为71 694.02/10万。在三级病因中,结核病疾病负担下降幅度最大;2019年,脑卒中、缺血性心脏病和慢性阻塞性肺疾病,下呼吸道感染和结核病,跌倒、道路伤害和自杀分别是造成非传染性疾病、传染病和伤害疾病负担的主要原因。  结论  非传染性疾病和伤害日益成为中国急需解决的公共卫生问题。应加强对重点疾病(心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、肌肉骨骼疾病等)以及重点人群(男性、≥85岁人群)的防控,通过管理健康风险因素及可改变的行为生活方式预防疾病发生,降低疾病负担。
  • 图  1  中国≥60岁老年人全病因和一级病因性别标化DALY率变化趋势

    DALY,伤残调整寿命年。

    Figure  1.  Trends of standardized DALY rates of all cause and level 1 causes among Chinese people aged 60 years and older by gender

    DALY, disability-adjusted life year.

    图  2  中国≥60岁老年人全病因和一级病因年龄别标化DALY率变化趋势

    DALY,伤残调整寿命年。

    Figure  2.  Trends of standardized DALY rates of all cause and level 1 causes among Chinese people aged 60 years and older by age group

    DALY, disability-adjusted life year.

    图  3  1990—2019年中国≥60岁老年人三级病因标化DALY率排名变化情况

    DALY,伤残调整寿命年; 实线代表标化DALY率排名上升或不变,虚线代表标化DALY率排名下降。听力下降=与年龄相关的和其他听力下降。

    Figure  3.  Changes in rankings of standardized DALY rates of level 3 causes among Chinese people aged 60 years and older, 1990 to 2019

    DALY, disabilit adjusted ife year; Solid lines are inreases or no changes in rank and dashed lies are decreases.Hearing loss =Age-related and other hearing loss.

    表  1  中国≥60岁老年人疾病负担变化情况的性别Joinpoint回归分析

    Table  1.   Joinpoint regression analysis of changes in disease burden among Chinese people aged 60 years and older by gender

    变量
    Variable
    平均年度变化百分比  Average annual percent of change/%(95% CI)
    全病因
    All causes
    传染病、孕产妇和新生儿疾病、营养不良
    Communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases
    非传染性疾病
    Non-commuicable diseases
    伤害
    Injuries
    总体  Both -1.375(-1.401~-1.350) -3.670(-3.707~-3.630) -1.315(-1.341~-1.290) -0.517(-0.597~-0.445)
    女性  Female -1.596(-1.632~-1.560) -3.923(-3.956~-3.887) -1.537(-1.572~-1.502) -0.726(-0.821~-0.619)
    男性  Male -1.182(-1.211~-1.154) -3.393(-3.437~-3.346) -1.120(-1.148~-1.092) -0.231(-0.297~-0.173)
    注:①P < 0.05。
    Note: ① P < 0.05.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  中国≥60岁老年人疾病负担变化情况的年龄别Joinpoint回归分析

    Table  2.   Joinpoint regression analysis of changes in disease burden among Chinese people aged 60 years and older by age group

    年龄组/岁
    Age group/years
    平均年度变化百分比 Average annual percent of change/%(95% CI)
    全病因
    All causes
    传染病、孕产妇和新生儿疾病、营养不良
    Communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases
    非传染性疾病
    Non-commuicable diseases
    伤害
    Injuries
    60~ < 65 -1.594(-1.625~-1.565) -3.909(-3.947~-3.859) -1.537(-1.562~-1.513) -0.903(-0.987~-0.822)
    65~ < 70 -1.555(-1.593~-1.521) -3.923(-3.959~-3.879) -1.502(-1.542~-1.468) -0.682(-0.776~-0.595)
    70~ < 75 -1.487(-1.514~-1.460) -4.009(-4.057~-3.961) -1.176(-1.631~-0.708) -0.536(-0.603~-0.457)
    75~ < 80 -1.383(-1.411~-1.352) -3.859(-3.896~-3.820) -1.319(-1.345~-1.288) -0.400(-0.477~-0.321)
    80~ < 85 -1.185(-1.237~-1.128) -3.568(-3.631~-3.490) -1.109(-1.154~-1.057) -0.137(-0.254~-0.035)
    85~ < 90 -0.912(-0.949~-0.873) -3.040(-3.097~-2.986) -0.844(-0.878~-0.808) 0.322(0.271~0.373)
    90~ < 95 -0.940(-0.991~-0.890) -2.701(-2.759~-2.639) -0.904(-0.946~-0.860) 0.779(0.723~0.831)
    ≥95 -0.787(-0.829~-0.742) -2.301(-2.339~-2.258) -0.629(-0.854~-0.399) 1.537(1.493~1.577)
    注:①P < 0.05。
    Note: ① P < 0.05.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2024-04-17
  • 修回日期:  2024-07-28
  • 网络出版日期:  2024-12-23
  • 刊出日期:  2024-11-10

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