2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病流行特征及气象因素关联性研究

于晓琳; 高衍新; 王爽; 房明; 丁淑军; 寇增强

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.05.013

2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病流行特征及气象因素关联性研究

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.05.013

1.
山东省疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所，济南 250014
2.
山东省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测评价所，济南 250014

基金项目:

国家科技重大专项 2018ZX10714002

山东省医药卫生科技项目 202412051230

山东省自然科学基金 ZR2024MH289

详细信息

通讯作者:
寇增强, E-mail: jack-cou@163.com

中图分类号: R183
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-01-01
- 修回日期: 2025-04-15
- 网络出版日期: 2025-06-28
- 刊出日期: 2025-05-10

Epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis and its correlation with meteorological factors in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021

1.
Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
2.
Department of Public Health Surveillance and Evaluation, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China

Funds:

National Science and Technology Major Projects of China 2018ZX10714002

Medical and Health Science and Technology Development Project of Shandong Province 202412051230

Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province ZR2024MH289

More Information

Corresponding author: KOU Zengqiang, E-mail: jack-cou@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病流行特征及气象因素对布鲁氏菌病发病的影响，为布鲁氏菌病的预测预警及科学防控提供参考依据。方法收集2010–2021年报告的山东省布鲁氏菌病疫情资料和同期日平均气温、日平均气压、日平均相对湿度和日平均风速等气象因素资料，描述疾病流行特征并进行相关性分析和分布滞后非线性模型分析。结果 2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病年均报告发病率为2.35/10万，全年各月均有病例报告，发病高峰集中在3–8月，占66.11%。2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病年均发病率较高的县(区)主要位于北部地区，发病人群中男、女性别比为2.55∶1.00，年龄主要集中在30~＜70岁，占83.70%；职业以农民为主，占85.51%。选择发病率较高的区域进行研究，以中位数为参考。日平均气温为-12.50 ℃、滞后40~110 d发病时风险最高(RR=1.40)；日平均气压为989.86 hpa、滞后60~80 d发病时风险最高(RR=3.51)；日平均相对湿度为78.00%、滞后38~80 d发病时风险最高(RR=1.25)；日平均风速为6.8 m/s、滞后148~150 d发病时风险最高(RR=1.38)。结论山东省布鲁氏菌病发病集中在春夏季节，好发于农民，高发区域集中在省内北部地区。日平均气温、日平均气压、日平均相对湿度和日平均风速等气象因素与布鲁氏菌病发病风险相关，可作为疫情预警参数，为制定防控策略提供参考。
- 布鲁氏菌病 /
- 流行特征 /
- 气象因素 /
- 分布滞后非线性模型
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis and the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of brucellosis in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021, and to provide a reference basis for the prediction, early warning and scientific prevention and control of brucellosis. Methods The epidemiological data of brucellosis in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021 and the meteorological data such as daily average temperature, air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed were collected. The data were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods. Meteorological factors were analyzed by correlation analysis and distributed lag nonlinear model analysis. Results The average annual incidence of human brucellosis in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021 was 2.35 per 100 000. Human brucellosis occurred in all months of the past year, with the peak incidence concentrated from March to August, accounting for 66.11%. Counties with the highest annual incidence were mainly located in the northern part of the province. The ratio of male to female was 2.55∶1.00, and the age was mainly concentrated in the 30-<70 age group, accounting for 83.70%. The occupation was mainly farmers, accounting for 85.51%. Then, we selected the region with high incidence as the study area, with median was used as reference. The highest risk was observed at an average daily temperature of -12.50 ℃ (lag 40-110 days, RR=1.40), an average daily air pressure of 989.86 hPa (lag 60-80 days, RR=3.51), a daily relative humidity of 78.00% (lag 38-80 days, RR=1.25), and a daily average wind speed of 6.80 m/s (lag 148-150 days, RR=1.38). Conclusions The incidence of brucellosis in Shandong Province was concentrated in spring and summer, mainly in farmers, and the high-incidence areas were mainly located in the northern part of the province. Meteorological factors, such as daily average temperature, air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed, were related to the incidence of brucellosis, which can be used as early warning parameters to provide references for the development of prevention and control strategies.
- Brucellosis /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Meteorological factor /
- Distributed lag nonlinear model

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图 1 2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病报告发病数和发病率情况

Figure 1. Number of cases and incidence rate of brucellosis in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病病例发病时间分布

Figure 2. Time distribution of brucellosis cases in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021

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图 3 2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病年均发病率地区分布

Figure 3. Regional distribution of average annual incidence of brucellosis in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021

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图 4 发病相对危险度随气象因素与滞后时间变化的等高线图

Figure 4. The relative risk of morbidity varies with meteorological factors and lag time

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图 5 气象因素对布鲁氏菌病发病的总体累积效应图

Figure 5. Overall cumulative effect of meteorological factors on brucellosis incidence

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表 1 2010–2021年山东省布鲁氏菌病病例人群分布(n=27 649)

Table 1. Population distribution of brucellosis cases in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021 (n=27 649)

分类 Classification	发病数 Number of cases	构成比 Percentage/%	分类 Classification	发病数 Number of cases	构成比 Percentage/%
性别Gender			人群分类Population classification
男Male	19 861	71.83	儿童Child	317	1.15
女Female	7 788	28.17	学生Student	474	1.71
年龄组/岁Age group/years			教师Teacher	60	0.22
0~＜10	421	1.52	医务人员Medical worker	46	0.17
10~＜20	509	1.84	工人Worker	817	2.95
20~＜30	1 901	6.88	农民Farmer	23 643	85.51
30~＜40	3 521	12.73	牧民Shepherd	168	0.61
40~＜50	6 076	21.98	干部职员Office clerk	190	0.69
50~＜60	7 549	27.30	离退人员Retired people	296	1.07
60~＜70	5 995	21.68	家务及待业人员Housework and unemployment	882	3.19
≥70	1 677	6.07	其他Others	756	2.73

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表 2 2010–2021年山东省东营市气象因素基本情况

Table 2. Basic situation of daily value meteorological factors in Dongying City, Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021

变量Variable	最小值Min	P₅~＜P₂₅	P₂₅~＜P₅₀	P₅₀~＜P₇₅	P₇₅~＜P₉₅	≥P₉₅	最大值Max
日平均气压Average pressure/hpa	989.86	999.80	1 005.72	1 015.06	1 022.78	1 031.40	1 041.40
日平均气温Average temperature/℃	-12.50	-2.40	4.86	14.62	24.00	28.35	33.30
日平均相对湿度Average relative humidity/%	20.32	33.80	49.42	63.94	75.00	88.80	96.96
日平均降水量Average precipitation/mm	0	0	0	0	0.04	9.48	157.00
日平均风速Average wind speed/(m·s^-1)	0.54	0.96	1.40	1.84	2.50	3.90	6.80
日照时数Average sunlight hours/h	0	0	0	4.04	8.60	11.00	13.70

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表 3 气象因子与布鲁氏菌病病例数之间的相关性分析

Table 3. Correlation analysis between various meteorological factors and the number of cases

因素Factors	病例 Number of cases	日平均气压 Average pressure/hpa	日平均气温 Average temperature/℃	日平均相对湿度 Average relative humidity/%	日平均降水量 Average precipitation/mm	日平均风速 Average wind speed/(m·s^-1)	日平均日照时数 Average sunlight hours/h
病例数Number of cases	1.000
日平均气压Average pressure/hpa	-0.515(＜0.001)	1.000
日平均气温Average temperature/℃	0.456(＜0.001)	-0.878(＜0.001)	1.000
日平均相对湿度Average relative humidity/%	-0.166(＜0.001)	-0.222(＜0.001)	0.226(＜0.001)	1.000
日平均降水量Average precipitation/mm	0.059(0.05)	-0.257(＜0.001)	0.217(＜0.001)	0.407(＜0.001)	1.000
日平均风速Average wind speed/(m·s^-1)	0.281(＜0.001)	-0.147(＜0.001)	0.018(0.542)	-0.256(＜0.001)	0.079(0.009)	1.000
日照时数Average sunlight hours/h	0.135(＜0.001)	-0.051(0.091)	0.017(0.564)	-0.177(＜0.001)	-0.182(＜0.001)	0.183(＜0.001)	1.000
注：括号外数值为对应变量的相关系数，括号内数值为两变量相关分析对应的P值。 Note: The value outside the brackets is the correlation coefficient of the corresponding variable, and the value inside the brackets is the P value corresponding to the two-variable correlation analysis.

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