Trends in cerebrovascular disease mortality in Jiang'an District, Wuhan City between 2000 and 2014: an application of APC model

Objective To analyze the trends of cerebrovascular disease mortality in Jiang'an district,Wuhan city during the period 2000-2014, and to provide evidence for developing preventive strategies. Methods The mortality data were obtained from Jiang'an center for disease control and prevention. Trend in age standardized mortality rate was estimated. Age-period-cohort (APC) model and intrinsic estimator (IE) were applied to assess the effects of age, period and birth cohort on the risk of cerebrovascular mortality. Results The mortality rates of cerebrovascular disease decreased significantly across the period 2000-2014. APC model indicated the mortality risk increased with age, and decreased with period and birth cohort both in men and women (all P<0.05). Conclusions The results suggested that the burden of cerebrovascular disease were increasing despite a decreasing trend in mortality rate. Therefore, disease prevention should focus on community-based primary prevention.