A study on epidemiological features of hepatitis C in Hunan Province, and short-term forecast on its incidence tendency, 2010-2015

Objective To study the epidemiological features of hepatitis C in Hunan and the short-term forecast of its incidence tendency. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were adopted to analyze data from report information management system of communicable diseases of China from 2010 to 2015 for hepatitis C infection status in Hunan province. Exponential smoothing method was adopted to create model to forecast the short-term incidence tendency of hepatitis C in Hunan from 2016 to 2017. Results From 2010 to 2015, 60 328 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Hunan Province, including 32 597 males cases and 27 731 female cases, and the gender ratio was 1.18:1. The annual average incidence rate was 18.337/100 000 with an annually-ascending tendency. The average growth rates of newly-emerging cases and incidence rates were 22.39% and 20.86% respectively. There was an obvious seasonality characterized in peaking in spring and summer with a peak in March. The most four densely-distributed regions were Huaihua (10 138, 16.8%), Shaogyang(7 335, 12.16%), Hengyang (7 016, 11.63%) and Changsha (6 530, 10.82%).The case numbers started to rise sharply from those aged 20 and above and reached a peak among people aged 40-50, presenting a conspicuous age specific feature. Among populations with different occupations, peasants occupied the largest percentage (50.00%). The incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan from 2016 to 2017 would decrease compared with that in 2015, and the average monthly incidence rates of 2016 and 2017 was predicted to be 14.769/100 000, 13.687/100 000 respectively. Conclusions There has been an ascending tendency of hepatitis C in Hunan between 2010 and 2015; Winters Additive Method is suitable for the short-term forecast of hepatitis C in Hunan. Reality situation and accurate forecast of incidence should be well-combined for the promotion of the preventive works of hepatitis C in Hunan.