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CN 34-1304/RISSN 1674-3679

Volume 24 Issue 8
Aug.  2020
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Article Contents
HUANG Xiao-hong, FANG Yue-yi, LAI Ying-si. Development and application of SIS model on C. sinensis transmission and intervention with preventive chemotherapy[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(8): 951-955. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.08.017
Citation: HUANG Xiao-hong, FANG Yue-yi, LAI Ying-si. Development and application of SIS model on C. sinensis transmission and intervention with preventive chemotherapy[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(8): 951-955. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.08.017

Development and application of SIS model on C. sinensis transmission and intervention with preventive chemotherapy

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.08.017
Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81703320

Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province 2017A030313704

More Information
  • Corresponding author: LAI Ying-si, E-mail: laiys3@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • Received Date: 2019-12-17
  • Rev Recd Date: 2020-03-03
  • Publish Date: 2020-08-10
  •   Objective  To develop a clonorchis sinensis(C. sinensis) transmission dynamic model for the assessment of the long-term effects of preventive chemotherapy.  Methods  A susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) compartmental transmission model was developed to describe the dynamics of C. sinensis infection. The corresponding parameters were estimated through a data-driven Bayesian melding approach, based on data from a typical setting of clonorchiasis. With application of the model, we simulated the long-term effects of preventive chemotherapy under different delivery modes (pulse/continuous), coverages, frequencies and intervention durations.  Results  The model evaluation showed good capacities of fitting and prediction. The long-term effects of preventive chemotherapy against clonorchiasis between pulse and continuous delivery modes were similar. Preventive chemotherapy had significant control effects against clonorchiasis. Particularly, higher coverages, higher frequencies and longer duration of intervention could result in better effects. However, the effects were not sustainable, as the prevalence would rebound after intervention stopped.  Conclusions  The model we developed is able to assess the long-term effects of preventive chemotherapy against clonorchiasis effectively. The effects of preventive chemotherapy are not sustainable. Health education and environmental improvement should be combined to improve the sustainability for disease control.
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