Spatial risk analysis of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus based on different methods of choosing controls

XIAO Shuang; ZHANG Jun; HU Jian; HUANG Jia-qi; XIONG Cheng-long; ZHANG Zhi-jie

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.008

Volume 25 Issue 7

Aug. 2021

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XIAO Shuang, ZHANG Jun, HU Jian, HUANG Jia-qi, XIONG Cheng-long, ZHANG Zhi-jie. Spatial risk analysis of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus based on different methods of choosing controls[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(7): 779-784. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.008

Citation:

XIAO Shuang, ZHANG Jun, HU Jian, HUANG Jia-qi, XIONG Cheng-long, ZHANG Zhi-jie. Spatial risk analysis of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus based on different methods of choosing controls[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(7): 779-784. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.008

Citation:

XIAO Shuang, ZHANG Jun, HU Jian, HUANG Jia-qi, XIONG Cheng-long, ZHANG Zhi-jie. Spatial risk analysis of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus based on different methods of choosing controls[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(7): 779-784. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.008

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Spatial risk analysis of global highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus based on different methods of choosing controls

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.008

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200020, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81973102

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81872673

Shanghai Municipal Public Health Excellent Discipline Leader Training Program GWV-10.2-XD21

More Information

Corresponding author: XIONG Cheng-long, E-mail: xiongchenglong@fudan.edu.cn; ZHANG Zhi-jie, E-mail: epistat@gmail.com
Received Date: 2021-01-07
Rev Recd Date: 2021-03-05

Available Online: 2021-08-13

Publish Date: 2021-07-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore and compare the impacts of four sampling methods on the spatial risk analysis of global highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 (HPAIV H5N1) based on the global databases of HPAIV H5N1. Methods H5N1 outbreak data were collected from the official surveillance reports. The control data were obtained through four sampling methods using the ratio of 1∶4 for case to control, completely random sampling based on the country, buffer zone sampling, probability sampling based on population density and probability sampling based on the results of MaxEnt. Six influencing factors were collected, including the shortest distance from the epidemic point to the railway, highway and wild bird migration routes, land use and land cover data, altitude, and infant mortality rate. The Logistic regression model with spatial autocorrelation term was applied to analyze and compare the impacts of four sampling methods on the predicted risk through the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and other evaluation indicators. Results For the four sampling methods, their AUC values were between 0.896-0.971, showing their prediction ability were good, and the MaxEnt-based sampling method had the best predictive ability. From the perspective of predicting risk, the results of random sampling and buffer zone sampling were biased, and the result of probability sampling was underestimated, while the results for MaxEnt sampling was best. Conclusion The results of spatial risk modeling for global HPAIV H5N1 based on random sampling was poorest, but MaxEnt sampling had the best modelling result, whose predicted risk regions were more accurate. Hence it can provide a rational reference to select controls for the spatial epidemiologic researches of global avian influenza. It is suggested to pay attention to the selection of control sampling methods in future similar researches.
- Spatial risk modeling,
- Sampling method,
- Model comparison,
- HPAIV H5N1,
- Epidemiology

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References(20)

References

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