The relationship between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and meteorological factors in Qinghai Province and multivariate time series analysis

LIANG Da; SHANG Yue; WANG Zhao-fen; MA Bin-zhong

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.013

Volume 25 Issue 10

Nov. 2021

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2021 > 25(10): 1186-1193

LIANG Da, SHANG Yue, WANG Zhao-fen, MA Bin-zhong. The relationship between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and meteorological factors in Qinghai Province and multivariate time series analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1186-1193. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.013

Citation:

LIANG Da, SHANG Yue, WANG Zhao-fen, MA Bin-zhong. The relationship between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and meteorological factors in Qinghai Province and multivariate time series analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1186-1193. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.013

Citation:

LIANG Da, SHANG Yue, WANG Zhao-fen, MA Bin-zhong. The relationship between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and meteorological factors in Qinghai Province and multivariate time series analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1186-1193. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.013

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The relationship between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and meteorological factors in Qinghai Province and multivariate time series analysis

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.013

1.
Epidemiology Teaching and Research Office, Department of Public Health, Medical College, Qinghai University, Xining 810001, China
2.
Institute for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases, Qinghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining 810007, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundations of China 81860593

Qinghai Provincial Thousand Talents Program for High-level Innovative Talents 2017-2

Appropriate Technology Promotion Project of Health Commission of Qinghai Province 2020-wjtg-02

More Information

Corresponding author: MA Bin-zhong, E-mail: qhxnmbz@126.com
Received Date: 2021-01-14
Rev Recd Date: 2021-03-20

Available Online: 2021-11-17

Publish Date: 2021-10-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Qinghai Province, and establish a autoregressive integrated moving average model-X (ARIMAX) model to make a short-term prediction of the number of PTB cases. Methods Geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of PTB. The monthly number of PTB cases in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2018 was used as the response sequence and meteorological factors as the input sequence, the meteorological factors related to the incidence of PTB were determined by the cross-correlation function (CCF) diagram. The ARIMAX model was established to fit and predict the monthly number of PTB cases from 2014 to 2018 and 2019 respectively, and compared with the actual monthly cases. Results Precipitation and relative humidity had a positive effect on the incidence of PTB, air pressure, temperature and sunshine hours had a negative effect, while the wind speed had both positive and negative effects. The correlation between the average temperature, wind speed and the incidence of PTB was determined by CCF diagram. The optimal model established was ARIMAX(0, 1, 2)×(0, 1, 0)₁₂ with two covariables (the third order lag of average temperature and the second order lag of average wind speed). The model has a goodness of fit (R²) of 0.71 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 24.91%. Conclusions Meteorological factors affected the incidence of PTB to different degrees. An optimal ARIMAX model was established to predict the incidence of PTB.
- Pulmonary tuberculosis,
- Geographically weighted regression,
- Meteorological factors,
- ARIMAX model,
- Time series analysis

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References(16)

References

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