Etiology characteristics and their time series prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Dali

LIU Qing; LIU Lu; ZHANG Tai; DUAN Feiyun; CHEN Xiaoming

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.05.014

Volume 27 Issue 5

May 2023

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LIU Qing, LIU Lu, ZHANG Tai, DUAN Feiyun, CHEN Xiaoming. Etiology characteristics and their time series prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Dali[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(5): 574-580. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.05.014

Citation:

LIU Qing, LIU Lu, ZHANG Tai, DUAN Feiyun, CHEN Xiaoming. Etiology characteristics and their time series prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Dali[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(5): 574-580. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.05.014

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Etiology characteristics and their time series prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Dali

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.05.014

LIU Qing¹,
LIU Lu¹,
ZHANG Tai^{1
,
,},
DUAN Feiyun²,
CHEN Xiaoming^{2
,
,}

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Dali University, Dali 671000, China
2.
Infectious Disease Control Department, Dali State Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Dali 671000, China

Funds:

Yunnan Provincial Philosophy and Social Science Innovation Team 2020CX10

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Tai，E-mail: zhangtai16@126.com; CHEN Xiaoming，E-mail: dljkcxm@126.com
Received Date: 2022-09-08
Rev Recd Date: 2022-10-21
Publish Date: 2023-05-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To understand the etiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Dali, to use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to explore the infection trend of pathogens and to provide a basis for the pathogen monitoring and prevention and control of HFMD in this region. Methods The etiological test results of HFMD in Dali from 2013 to 2021 were collected, which descriptive methods were used to predict the etiological characteristics of HFMD and SARIMA models. Results A total of 2 793 positive pathogens (60.27%) were detected in Dali, including 1 157 coxsackievirus A16(CA16) (41.42%), 669 enterovirus 71 (EV71) (23.95%), and 967 other enteroviruses (EV) (34.62%) between 2013 and 2021. Male-to-female positive ratio was 1.44∶1. The highest ratio was 1-3 years old (71.07%). Autumn had the highest positive rate (66.87%). CA16 composition ratio was the highest (52.89%). EV71 were the dominant epidemic strains in 2013-2014 and 2017, CA16 were the dominant epidemic strains in 2015-2016 and 2019, and other EV strains were the dominant epidemic strains in 2018 and 2021. The positive rates of different counties were significantly ($\chi$²=220.63, P < 0.001), which the highest rate was in Eryuan county (75.92%) and the lowest rate was in Nanjian county (40.87%). The prevalence of HFMD pathogens is obviously seasonal, which using SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ can well predict the infection trend of each pathogen. Conclusions The pathogens of HFMD coexist in Dali, with CA16 and other EV as the dominant strains, the key population is preschool children, originated in summer and autumn, Eryuan, Binchuan and Heqing Counties are at high incidence. The SARIMA(1, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)₁₂ model can more accurately predict the changing trend of HFMD pathogens.
- Hand, foot and mouth disease,
- Etiological characteristics,
- Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model,
- Infection trend

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References(17)

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