Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the Chinese population, 1994-2019

ZHOU Zonglei; LI Kunpeng; LI Nannan; ZHOU Ruzhen

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.08.001

Volume 27 Issue 8

Aug. 2023

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ZHOU Zonglei, LI Kunpeng, LI Nannan, ZHOU Ruzhen. Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the Chinese population, 1994-2019[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(8): 869-876. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.08.001

Citation:

ZHOU Zonglei, LI Kunpeng, LI Nannan, ZHOU Ruzhen. Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the Chinese population, 1994-2019[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(8): 869-876. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.08.001

Citation:

ZHOU Zonglei, LI Kunpeng, LI Nannan, ZHOU Ruzhen. Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the Chinese population, 1994-2019[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(8): 869-876. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.08.001

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Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the Chinese population, 1994-2019

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.08.001

1.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
2.
School of Rehabilitation Science, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai 201203, China
3.
Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Splenic Surgery, Changhai Hospital of Shanghai, Shanghai 200433, China
4.
Department of Colorectal Surgery, Changhai Hospital of Shanghai, Shanghai 200433, China

Funds:

Shanghai Youth Science and Technology Talents Sailing Program 20YF1448700

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHOU Ruzhen, E-mail: emilyzhou351@163.com
Received Date: 2022-03-18
Rev Recd Date: 2022-08-04

Available Online: 2023-09-02

Publish Date: 2023-08-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To understand the incidence and mortality trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among the Chinese population, and to evaluate the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence and mortality. Methods Data on gender-specific incidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among the Chinese population between 1994 to 2014 were obtained through the Global Health Data Exchange Database. We described the temporal trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence and mortality, and the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect were estimated using an age-period-cohort (APC) model and intrinsic estimator method. Results The standardized incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among Chinese male and female population increased from 4.16/100 000 and 2.26/100 000 in 1994 to 8.55/100 000 and 2.83/100 000 in 2019, while the standardized mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma decreased from 3.57/100 000 and 1.80/100 000 in 1994 to 2.20/100 000 and 0.72/100 000 in 2019. Results of APC analysis showed that during 1994-2019, age effect of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence in both Chinese male and female population increased first, then decreased and increased afterward with the increase of age [effect coefficient (male): -1.94-0.68 to 0.18-0.54, all P < 0.05; effect coefficient (female): -1.49-0.49 to 0.20-0.38, all P < 0.05]; period effect showed an increasing trend as year increased [effect coefficient (male): -0.44-0.53, all P < 0.05; effect coefficient (female): -0.12-0.24, all P < 0.05]; cohort effect decreased first, then increased and then decreased with the year of birth [effect coefficient (male): 0.82--0.36 to-0.05--0.36, all P < 0.05; effect coefficient (female): 0.63--0.17 to-0.01--0.57, all P < 0.05]. Age effect of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in Chinese population exhibited an upward trend with the increase of age [effect coefficient (male): -2.08-1.04, all P < 0.05; effect coefficient (female): -1.75-1.08, all P < 0.05]; cohort effect of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality among Chinese male population decreased with year of birth (effect coefficient: 0.95--0.89, P < 0.05). However, significant period effect of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in the whole population and cohort effect of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality among Chinese female population were not observed. Conclusions Age effect exerts impacts on the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence in both Chinese male and female population to varying degrees. The risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality among Chinese male population is affected by age effect and cohort effect, while the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in Chinese female population is only affected by age effect. Health education and screening for nasopharyngeal cancer are suggested to be strengthened for individuals aged over 40 years, especially for males to reduce the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence and mortality.
- Nasopharyngeal carcinoma,
- Incidence,
- Mortality,
- Age-period-cohort model

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References(13)

References

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