Study on the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Nanning City based on the distribution lag nonlinear model

LIANG Dongxu; KANG Qiang; ZENG Yi; XIE Zhichun

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.003

Volume 27 Issue 11

Nov. 2023

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LIANG Dongxu, KANG Qiang, ZENG Yi, XIE Zhichun. Study on the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Nanning City based on the distribution lag nonlinear model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(11): 1254-1261. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.003

Citation:

LIANG Dongxu, KANG Qiang, ZENG Yi, XIE Zhichun. Study on the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Nanning City based on the distribution lag nonlinear model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(11): 1254-1261. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.003

Citation:

LIANG Dongxu, KANG Qiang, ZENG Yi, XIE Zhichun. Study on the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Nanning City based on the distribution lag nonlinear model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(11): 1254-1261. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.003

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Study on the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Nanning City based on the distribution lag nonlinear model

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.003

LIANG Dongxu^{1, 2},
KANG Qiang³,
ZENG Yi³,
XIE Zhichun^{2
,
,}

1.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health ard Management, Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanning 530200, China
2.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 533021, China
3.
Department of Infectious Disease Control, Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning 530002, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81460512

More Information

Corresponding author: XIE Zhichun, E-mail: 357154887@qq.com
Received Date: 2022-09-23
Rev Recd Date: 2022-12-20

Available Online: 2023-11-20

Publish Date: 2023-11-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective This study aims to investigate the influence and lag effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease disease (HFMD). Methods Daily HFMD incidence data and concurrent meteorological data from 2010 to 2019 were collected and analyzed. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was utilized to examine the correlation between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors in Nanning. Results From 2010 to 2019, a total of 508 984 HFMD cases were reported in Nanning, with primary peaks observed from April to June and secondary peaks from September to October. The incidence rate for males to females was 1.57∶1, primarily among nursery-aged and home-based children. HFMD incidence exhibited a positive correlation with average temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine duration, and a negative correlation with atmospheric pressure. At 35.0 ℃, the mean temperature exhibited the highest RR value on the 9th day (RR=1.058, 95% CI: 1.037-1.079); At 86.0%, the relative humidity peaked on the 14th day (RR=1.011, 95% CI: 1.007-1.014); Atmospheric pressure displayed a "double peak" phenomenon, with the highest RR value at 990.0 hPa on the 7th day (RR=1.022, 95% CI: 1.017-1.027), and at 1 030.0 hPa on the 5th day (RR=1.054, 95% CI: 0.988-1.124); At 7.0 h/d, the sunshine duration revealed the maximum RR value on the 5th lag day (RR=1.017, 95% CI: 1.009-1.025). Notably, extreme heat, high-pressure, cold, and dry effects also demonstrated a significant lag effect on the onset of HFMD. Conclusions HFMD presents a severe epidemic situation in Nanning. The incidence of HFMD is significantly associated with meteorological factors. Meteorological factors can be leveraged to predict the disease′s development trend.
- Hand-foot-mouth disease,
- Meteorological factors,
- Distributed lag non-linear model

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References(16)

References

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