河南省扩大免疫规划阶段流行性腮腺炎流行特征和时空聚集性

肖占沛; 路明霞; 王长双; 王燕; 马雅婷; 张明瑜; 张延炀

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.008

河南省扩大免疫规划阶段流行性腮腺炎流行特征和时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.008

450016 郑州，河南省疾病预防控制中心免疫预防规划所

基金项目:

河南省医学科技攻关计划联合共建项目 LHGJ20190693

河南省科技攻关项目 162102310036

详细信息

通讯作者:
张延炀，E-mail:zhangyy1984@139.com

中图分类号: R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-06-11
- 修回日期: 2020-09-15
- 刊出日期: 2020-11-10

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clusters of mumps at the stage of expanding immunization program in Henan Province

Immunization Planning Institute, Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China

Funds:

Henan Province Medical Science and Technology Research Project Joint Construction Project LHGJ20190693

Science and technology tackling key project of Henan Province 162102310036

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Yan-yang, E-mail:zhangyy1984@139.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析河南省2008-2019年流行性腮腺炎的时空分布特征，识别高危聚集区，为流行性腮腺炎的防控提供科学建议。方法基于中国传染病监测信息报告管理系统，通过描述性流行病学方法分析河南省2008-2019年流行性腮腺炎三间分布特征。采用ArcGIS 10.7软件进行三维趋势分析和结果可视化呈现，应用SaTScan 9.4软件进行时空扫描分析。结果河南省2008-2019年累计报告223 499例流行性腮腺炎，年平均报告发病率为19.68/10万；病例主要集中在5~10岁儿童和青少年，占病例总数的50.61%；每年的3-7月及11月-次年1月为发病高峰。三维趋势分析显示，河南省流行性腮腺炎发病由南向北逐渐升高，且东部略高于西部；时空扫描统计结果显示：共识别到6个时空聚集区，主要聚集区位于北部安阳地区，包含4个县区，聚集时间为2008-2013年。结论 2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎发病水平呈平稳的波动趋势，且存在明显季节性规律，5~10岁的儿童和青少年为其主要发病人群，2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎存在时空聚集性，主要聚集区呈动态变化，近两年东南部地区出现聚集区，应重点关注。
- 流行性腮腺炎 /
- 时空扫描统计 /
- 时空聚集性 /
- 地理信息系统
Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and clustering of incidence on mumps in Henan Province during 2008-2019, so as to provide suggestions for control and prevention of mumps. Methods A database was established in the Infection Disease Reporting Information System in China. Descriptive methods were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of mumps in Henan Province during 2008-2019. A spatial distribution map was drawn, with trend analysis and space-time clustering used to study the mumps, by using both ArcGIS 10.7 and SaTScan 9.4 software. Results A total of 223 499 mumps cases were reported in Henan Province during 2008-2019, with an average annual incidence of 19.68/100 000. The majority of patients were from 5 to 10 years old, accounting for 50.61%. The peak of mumps was from March to July and from November to next January. Results from the trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of mumps increased gradually from the southern to northern parts, with incidence slightly higher in the eastern than in the western regions. County-level temporal-spatial clusters of mumps were detected in 6 areas. Areas with most clusters of mumps appeared in Anyang District, including 4 counties, during 2008 to 2013. Conclusions The overall incidence rate of the mumps was in a stable fluctuation trend and showing obvious characteristics on season. The majority of patients were from 5 to 10 years old. Mumps showed temporal-spatial clustering in Henan Province during 2008-2019. The main clusters dynamically changed. Areas with clusters of mumps appeared in southeast regions in recent two years, suggesting that the prevention and control measures should be further strengthened in these areas.
- Mumps /
- Spatial-temporal scan statistic /
- Spatial-temporal clustering /
- Geographic information systems

HTML全文

图 1 2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎发病月分布

Figure 1. Distribution of Mumps by month in Henan Province from 2008 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎发病率地区分布

Figure 2. Regional distribution of Mumps in Henan Province from 2008 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎病例年龄分布

Figure 3. Distribution of Mumps by age in Henan Province from 2008 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎年均报告发病率三维趋势分析

注：X：经度，Y：纬度，Z：年平均报告发病率。

Figure 4. Three-dimensional trend analysis of Mumps in Henan Province from 2008 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎报告发病率时空扫描

注：病例数 1点=30例

Figure 5. Spatiotemporal of Mumps incidence in Henan Province from 2008 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2008-2019年河南省流行性腮腺炎报告发病率时空扫描结果

Table 1. The result of spatiotemporal scan statistics for Mumps incidence in Henan Province from 2008 to 2019

聚集区	时间(年)	中心点(经、纬度)	半径(km)	县区数(个)	病例数(例)	期望数	RR值	LLR值	P值
1	2008-2013	34.05N, 114.36E	5.26	4	4351	910.98	4.85	3390.21	＜0.001
2	2018-2019	35.07N, 112.60E	0.95	1	2443	282.47	8.73	3120.57	＜0.001
3	2017	34.82N, 114.82E	116.45	49	11454	5397.30	2.18	2647.04	＜0.001
4	2017	32.13N, 115.05E	145.64	18	6129	2439.99	2.55	1987.14	＜0.001
5	2009-2010	33.74N, 113.29E	4.40	3	1696	346.84	4.92	1346.77	＜0.001
6	2011-2012	34.39N, 111.65E	102.73	20	6372	3180.23	2.03	1259.86	＜0.001

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