基于网络数据的新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征分析

黄婧; 赵秋玲; 徐康; 丁竹青; 关岸晨; 黄丹丹; 陈一衡; 梁晓晖

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.018

基于网络数据的新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.018

1.
430071 武汉，武汉大学健康学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学专业
2.
430071 武汉，武汉大学健康学院全球健康系
3.
430072 武汉，武汉大学国家网络安全学院网络空间安全系

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目 61772378

详细信息

通讯作者:
梁晓晖，E-mail：xhliang@whu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181.2
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-06-15
- 修回日期: 2020-09-20
- 刊出日期: 2020-11-10

Analysis of COVID-19 epidemic characteristics based on network data

1.
Occupational Hygiene and Environmental Hygiene, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
2.
Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
3.
Department of Cyberspace Security, School of Cyber Science and Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 61772378

More Information

Corresponding author: LIANG Xiao-hui,E-mail：xhliang@whu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的分析新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, 简称“新冠肺炎”)的流行病学特征与部分临床特征，为新冠肺炎的防控提供参考依据。方法通过爬虫技术爬取“今日头条”网站发布的新冠肺炎确诊病例及其活动轨迹信息，进行统计分析。结果 2020年1月8日-2020年2月16日，共收集到病例6 814例，省会及直辖市病例数占15.13%，地级市及县镇病例数占63.98%，农村病例数占比13.41%；新冠肺炎确诊人数呈先增加后减少的趋势；男性确诊患者数量较女性确诊患者数量多5.85%，不同年龄段的性别构成差异有统计学意义(x² =36.466，P < 0.001)；患者年龄中位数为45岁，18~45岁分段人数最多，占44.35%；患者潜伏期中位数为8 d，潜伏期在1~14 d内的患者占86%，不同年龄段分组，男女潜伏期天数的差异均无统计学意义(均有P>0.05)。结论人群对新型冠状病毒普遍易感，潜伏期符合一般病毒的规律。由于我国疫情防控措施得当，且传播风险期短，疫情的发展得到遏制。新冠肺炎流行病学特征的研究成果将为我国新冠肺炎新一波疫情防控和复工复学的策略制定提供参考依据。
- 新型冠状病毒肺炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 爬虫技术 /
- 网络数据
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in order to provide reference for COVID-19 prevention and control. Methods Web-Crawler was used to crawl the information of confirmed COVID-19 cases published on "TouTiao" website for statistical analysis. Results From Jan 8th to Feb 16th, 2020, 6 814 cases were collected on the website. The cases in provincial capitals and municipalities accounted for 15.13%, in prefecture-level cities and counties accounted for 63.98%, and in rural cases accounted for 13.41%. The number of COVID-19 cases was increased at first and then decreased. The number of confirmed cases in males was 5.85% higher than that in females, and there are statistically significant differences in gender composition of different age groups (x²=36.466, P < 0.001). The number of females was higher than that of males. The median age of the patients was 45 years old, and the number of patients aged from 18 to 45 years was the highest (44.35%). The median incubation was 8 days, 86% of the patients were within 1-14 days. There is no significant difference in days of incubation period between males and females in different age groups (all P>0.05). Conclusions People are generally susceptible to COVID-19, and the incubation period is consistent with the pattern of the general virus. Due to the proper measures in China and the short transmission risk period, the epidemic has been contained. The study on the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 will provide reference for the strategy formulation of COVID-19 prevention and control and the resumption of work and school in China.
- COVID-19 /
- Epidemic characteristics /
- The crawler technology /
- Network data

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图 1 除湖北省以外的27个省及直辖市、自治区新冠肺炎流行初期确诊病例数分布

Figure 1. Distribution of the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic in 27 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions other than Hubei Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 新冠肺炎确诊病例基本人口学特征[n(%)]

Table 1. Basic demographic characters of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 [n(%)]

变量	n(例)	性别缺失	男性	女性	x²值	P值
年龄(岁)					36.466	< 0.001
< 7	103(1.51)	2(0.03)	53(0.78)	48(0.70)
7~	92(1.35)	2(0.03)	47(0.69)	43(0.63)
13~	82(1.20)	0(0.00)	53(0.78)	29(0.43)
18~	3 022(44.34)	65(0.95)	1 674(24.57)	1 283(18.83)
46~	2 710(39.77)	51(0.75)	1 305(19.15)	1 354(19.87)
>69	397(5.83)	6(0.09)	204(2.99)	187(2.74)
年龄缺失	408(5.99)	33(0.48)	191(2.80)	184(2.70)
地区					3.095	0.213
省会及直辖市	1 031(15.13)	19(0.28)	521(7.65)	491(7.21)
地级市及县镇	4 360(63.98)	87(1.28)	2 264(33.23)	2 009(29.48)
农村	914(13.41)	40(0.59)	485(7.12)	389(5.71)
地区缺失	509(7.47)	13(0.19)	257(3.77)	239(3.51)
接触史					33.451	< 0.001
常住武汉	1 442(21.16)	42(0.62)	789(11.58)	617(9.05)
路过武汉	61(0.90)	1(0.01)	39(0.57)	21(0.31)
旅居武汉	635(9.32)	11(0.16)	354(5.20)	270(3.96)
到过武汉(时长未知)	266(3.90)	4(0.06)	170(2.49)	92(1.35)
未到过武汉	2 508(36.81)	40(0.59)	1 241(18.21)	1 227(18.01)
接触史缺失	1 902(27.91)	61(0.90)	940(13.80)	901(13.22)

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