1990―2019年中国甲状腺癌死亡趋势分析

姚承志; 徐杰茹; 张敏; 段朝晖; 赵湘铃; 熊文婧; 让蔚清

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.06.019

1990―2019年中国甲状腺癌死亡趋势分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.06.019

1.
南华大学公共卫生学院社会医学与卫生事业管理教研室，衡阳 421001
2.
南华大学附属第一医院中医科，衡阳 421001

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 81673107

详细信息

通讯作者:
让蔚清，E-mail: nhurwq@126.com

中图分类号: R736.1; R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-04-03
- 修回日期: 2022-06-10
- 网络出版日期: 2023-07-10
- 刊出日期: 2023-06-10

Analysis of trends in thyroid cancer deaths in China from 1990 to 2019

1.
Department of Social Medicine and Health Administration, School of Public Health, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China
2.
Department of traditional Chinese medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81673107

More Information

Corresponding author: RANG Weiqing, E-mail: nhurwq@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析1990―2019年我国不同性别甲状腺癌死亡趋势，探讨性别趋势差异原因及高危人群。方法收集并整理全球健康数据交换库中1990―2019年我国5~＜95岁不同性别甲状腺癌的死亡数据。运用年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort, APC)模型分析年龄、时期、出生队列对甲状腺癌死亡率变化的影响。结果 1990―2013年男性甲状腺癌标化死亡率持续上升，在2013年达到最大值后逐渐下降。女性甲状腺癌年龄标化死亡率呈持续下降趋势。APC模型结果显示：男性与女性的净漂移值分别为1.38%、-2.94%。我国不同性别甲状腺癌的死亡风险均随着年龄的增长而增大，男性“J”字形上升趋势更为明显；男性甲状腺癌的死亡风险随着时期和出生队列推移而增大，女性则相反。结论男性年龄标准化死亡率呈先上升后逐渐下降趋势，女性年龄标准化死亡率呈持续下降的趋势。越早出生的高龄女性甲状腺癌死亡风险越高，越晚出生的高龄男性死亡风险越高。
- 甲状腺癌 /
- 死亡率 /
- 年龄-时期-队列模型
Abstract: Objective This study aims to analyze the trends in thyroid cancer mortality among males and females in China from 1990 to 2019, and to explore the underlying causes of the gender-based trend disparities and identify high-risk groups. Methods Thyroid cancer mortality data of males and females aged 5- < 95 years in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected and collated from the Global Health Data Exchange. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the influence of age, period and cohort on the mortality of thyroid cancer. Results The standardized mortality rate of male thyroid cancer continued to rise from 1990 until it peaked in 2013, after which it started to decline gradually. Meanwhile, the age-standardized mortality rate of female thyroid cancer consistently decreased. APC model showed that the net drift of males and females was 1.38% and -2.94%, respectively. Both genders demonstrated an increase in thyroid cancer death risk with age, with the ascending trend of the "J" shape being more pronounced in men. In males, the risk of thyroid death increased with time and cohort, while that of females decreased with time and cohort. Conclusions The age-standardized mortality rate of thyroid cancer among men first increased and then gradually declined, whereas it continuously decreased among women. Older women, particularly those born earlier, demonstrated a higher risk of dying from thyroid cancer. Meanwhile, older men, especially those born more recently, were found to have an elevated risk of death.
- Thyriod cancer /
- Mortality /
- Age-period-cohort model

HTML全文

图 1 1990―2019年全国男性和女性甲状腺癌死亡趋势

Figure 1. Trends in thyroid cancer deaths among men and women in China from 1990 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1990―2019年全国男性和女性甲状腺癌死亡局部偏移值和净偏移值

Figure 2. The local drift and net drift of the mortality of thyriod cancer in Chinese men and women from 1990 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 全国男性和女性甲状腺癌死亡率的纵向年龄曲线

Figure 3. Longitudinal age curve of thyriod cancer mortality in Chinese men and women

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 全国男性和女性甲状腺癌死亡率的时期RR值

Figure 4. Period RRs of thyriod cancer mortality in Chinese men and women

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 全国男性和女性甲状腺癌死亡率的出生队列RR值

Figure 5. Cohort RRs of thyriod cancer mortality in Chinese men and women

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 全国男性和女性甲状腺癌死亡APC模型检验

Table 1. Thyroid cancer death in Chinese men and women: a APC model test

零假设	男性		女性
零假设	χ²值	P值	χ²值	P值
净偏移=0	119.78	<0.001	369.27	<0.001
总年龄偏差=0	2 224.13	<0.001	199.82	<0.001
总时期偏差=0	73.41	<0.001	1.66	0.798
总队列偏差=0	130.49	<0.001	143.84	<0.001
时期RR值=1	201.58	<0.001	371.95	<0.001
队列RR值=1	551.54	<0.001	531.70	<0.001
总局部偏移=净偏移	127.73	<0.001	142.74	<0.001
注：1. APC：年龄-时期-队列。

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