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CN 34-1304/R ISSN 1674-3679

2020 Vol. 24, No. 1

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The state and development of global health
HAO Yuan-tao
2020, 24(1): 1-3. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.001
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The rapid development of the globalization process has brought global health problems and made global health a hotspot in the world. China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative has strengthened economic and trade exchanges between China and Asia, Africa, Europe, and has also increased health risks such as the spread of infectious diseases, disease spectrum, and lifestyle changes, posing challenges to the development of global health in China. Based on the history of global health, this paper made a brief review of the current status and future development of global health research. It pointed out that China's global health research started late and had many shortcomings. In the context of the One Belt And One Road initiative, We should seize opportunities and meet challenges to contribute to the construction of "Healthy China" and the promotion to global health.
Analysis of the current situation of road traffic accidents in the 31 provinces/municipalities of China and the projection for achieving the SDGs target of halving the numbers of death and injury
GONG Xue-lei, FANG Jing, TAN Xiao-ping, LIAO Ai-mei, XIAO Chuan-hao
2020, 24(1): 4-8. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.002
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  Objective   To analyze the data of road traffic accidents, deaths and injuries in 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2010 to 2017, and to predict that the number of deaths and injuries caused by road accidents set in the sustainable development goals(SDGs) will be halved by 2020 compared with the target set in 2015.   Methods   Describing and analyzing the current situation of road traffic accidents in 31 provinces and municipalities in China, and using the trend extrapolation method to predict whether the SDGs target can be achieved by 2020.   Results   The numbers of traffic accidents, deaths and injuries in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong Provinces showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2017, but still ranked the front in China. In 2017, Beijing had the highest death rate followed by Guizhou as the second, and Guizhou had the highest injury rate followed by Tianjin as the second. The projected results showed that the numbers of deaths and injuries caused by road traffic accidents in China would be increased by 17% and 1.3% respectively in 2020 indicating that SDGs target could not be met. Among the 31 provinces/municipalities, it was predicted that the numbers of deaths and injuries in Hunan would be reduced to 50.7% and 65.3% in 2015, respectively by 2020, and the target could be achieved; the number of injuries in Shanghai was decreased by 83.3%, but the deaths was only decreased by 34.5%, and there was still a gap with the target; the rest 29 provinces/municipalities could not meet SDGs target. It was expected that the deaths in 11 provinces and municipalities would increase by 2020, with Beijing, Jilin, Jiangxi, Hubei and Guizhou Provinces showing the most significant growth. The number of injured people in 8 provinces and municipalities shows an increasing trend, with Jilin, Jiangxi, Hubei and Guizhou provinces showing significant growth.   Conclusions   Except for Hunan Province, it was difficult for the whole country and the rest provinces and municipalities to reach the SDGs target. According to the forecast results and the actual situation, a targeted scientific prevention and control strategy can be formulated. The measures taken by Hunan and Shanghai in traffic accident prevention and control were effective and worth learning.
Exploring the causal relationship between hip circumference and type 2 diabetes based on mendelian randomization
LI Wen-chao, LI Hong-kai, LIU Xin-hui, SI Shu-cheng, YU Yuan-yuan, LI Yun-xia, YUAN Tong-hui, HOU Lei, LIU Lu, ZHOU Yu-chang, XUE Fu-zhong, LIU Yan-xun
2020, 24(1): 9-13. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.003
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  Objective   To investigate the causal association between hip circumference(HC) and type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2 DM) based on Mendelian randomization.   Methods   The genetic variants data of the HC and T2 DM from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits(GIANT) and DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis(DIAGRAM) database were matched according to the single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) rsID. Genetic loci strongly related to the HC were used as instrumental variables; and the inverse-variance weighting, MR-Egger regression model and weighting median method were carried out to analyze the causal effect of HC on T2 DM.   Results   Fifty-two, nine and fifteen SNPs were matched in the total cohort, female cohort and male cohort, respectively. Heterogeneity test suggested the SNPs were homogeneous. We found HC to be positively associated with T2 DM risk(OR=1.065, 95% CI: 1.030-1.100, OR=1.103, 95% CI: 1.057-1.150 and OR=1.583, 95% CI: 1.273-1.968, respectively) in above three cohorts, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed the results were robust.   Conclusions   There is a relationship between HC and T2 DM of people, and HC may be the risk factor of T2 DM.
A prospective cohort study of the relationship between unhealthy lifestyle and gestational diabetes mellitus
WANG Ya-wen, FENG Ya-hui, WU San-san, CAI Shu-ya, MA Liang-kun, JIANG Yu
2020, 24(1): 14-19. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.004
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  Objective   To analyze the incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM) among Chinese pregnant women and the distributions of unhealthy lifestyles. Exploring the association between these behaviors and GDM to provide some suggestions to GDM prevention.   Methods   Women who were enrolled by the Chinese Pregnant Women Cohort Study and delivered before the 31 st December, 2018 were enrolled by this study. The characters of physical activity, sedentary lifestyle, tobacco exposure, alcohol consumption, unhealthy diet and low sleep level were assessed by questionnaire and also the pregnancy complications. Binary Logistic regression model was adopted to analyzed the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.   Results   A total of 3 162 women were enrolled in this study and 372 of them were diagnosed GDM. Single variable analysis showed that lack of leisure time physical activity(RR=1.015, 95% CI=1.005-1.279, P=0.046) and low sleep quality(RR=1.019, 95% CI: 1.004-1.196, P=0.047) were two risk factors of GDM. Compared with women who showed none of these unhealthy lifestyle, those who showed all six unhealthy behaviors had higher risk of GDM(RR=1.530, 95% CI: 1.263-8.880, P=0.036).   Conclusions   The incidence of GDM among Chinese women was 11.76%. Lack of physical activity and poor sleep quality could increase the risk of GDM and the cluster of unhealthy lifestyles is associated with higher GDM risk. Adequate physical activity, no smoking and drinking, balanced diet and other healthy behaviors are important to GDM prevention.
Pathogenesis effect of serum chromium on oral cancer based on propensity score matching
QIU Wei, LIN Jing, LUO Li, JIANG Ying-ying, LI Rui-qiang, SHA Cheng-min, CAI Lin, LIU Feng-qiong, WANG Jing, CHEN Fa, HE Bao-chang
2020, 24(1): 20-25. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.005
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  Objective   To evaluate the effect of serum chromium on oral cancer after adjusting the covarite between groups based on propensity score matching(PSM).   Methods   We performed a case-control study in 395 cases of newly diagnosed primary oral cancer from the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University and 1 240 controls from the same community from January 2010 to February 2018. Using the PSM to select 309 controls randomly which were matched with the cases by 1 :1 matching. Conditional Logistic regression model was used to explore the association between chromium and oral cancer.   Results   The level of serum chromium was 178.91(121.83-284.19) μg/L in the case group, which was lower than 324.27(264.82-397.69) μg/L in control group, the difference was statistically significant(P < 0.001). Dose-response analysis showed that the risk of oral cancer gradually decreased with the increase of serum chromium, which presented a negative correlation. There was a negative correlation between serum chromium level and the risk for oral cancer by conditional Logistic regression, the aOR of serum chromium in the Q2, Q3 and Q4 compared with the Q1 were 0.14(0.08-0.26), 0.15(0.08-0.28) and 0.10(0.05-0.20), with significant trend(Ptrend < 0.001). Stratified analysis showed the negative correlation between serum chromium and oral cancer by smoking, drinking tea, not drinking alcohol status and fish, fruits and green vegetables intake frequencies.   Conclusions   The high level of serum chromium is a protective factor for the incidence of oral cancer, and the higher of serum chromium, the lower risk of developing oral cancer.
The correlation between bisphenol A exposure and ceramide as well as serum tumor markers in colorectal cancer
WU Ming, ZHANG Xin-dong, YUAN Shao-yun, LIU Sheng-cun, SHEN Tong
2020, 24(1): 26-30. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.006
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  Objective   The aim is to investigate the correlation between bisphenol A(BPA) exposure and tumor tissue ceramide(Cer) as well as serum tumor markers in colorectal cancer(CRC).   Methods   The morning urine and CRC tumor tissue were collected from 84 patients with CRC. The concentration of urine BPA was determined by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometer(LC-MS), urine BPA concentration was corrected with creatinine(Cr). Cer concentration of CRC tumor tissue was detected by Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). The correlations of urine BPAcr, Cer content of CRC tumor tissue and tumor markers were analyzed.   Results   Cer content in CRC tumor tissue was positively correlated with BPAcr(r=0.784, P < 0.001). Regression analysis showed that the regression coefficient of Cer content in CRC tumor tissue and BPAcr was 0.218(95%CI: 0.18-0.26), which was statistically significant(P < 0.001). There were significantly differences in CRC tumor tissue Cer and urine BPAcr between the CEA positive and negative groups, CA125 positive and negative groups, and CA19-9 positive and negative groups(allP < 0.05), while there was no significant difference between AFP positive and negative groups in CRC tumor tissue Cer and urine BPAcr(P=0.247). Serum CEA, CA125 and CA19-9 were positively correlated with urine BPAcr(r values were 0.348, 0.251, 0.281, respectively, all P < 0.05) and Cer content in CRC tumor tissue(r values were 0.265, 0.309, 0.263, respectively, all P < 0.05).   Conclusions   BPA exposure may cause an increase of Cer in CRC tumor tissue and abnormalities in serum tumor markers, suggesting that BPA exposure may participate in the development and occurance of CRC by affecting the metabolism of Cer in CRC tumor tissue.
The effects of influenza-like illness definitions on influenza surveillance in hospitalized children
LIU Zhang-peng, CHEN Li-ling, CHEN Kai-le, FENG Shuang, ZHANG Jun, ZHAO Gen-ming, ZHANG Tao, YAN Yong-dong
2020, 24(1): 31-36. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.007
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  Objective   To evaluate clinical factors associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection and probe into the effects of different influenza-like illness(ILI) definitions on influenza surveillance in hospitalized children.   Methods   The influenza surveillance on the hospitalized children with acute respiratory infection was carried out in Soochow university affiliated children's hospital from October 2017 to May 2018. The definition of influenza-like illness(ILI), which proposed by world health organization(WHO), the European center for disease prevention and control(ECDC) and ministry of public health of China, was analyzed to determine the area under receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC), sensibility, specificity, and the positive and negative predictive values of the ILI definition using the laboratory evidence of influenza virus infection as golden criteria. Logistic regression model was employed to explore the risk factors of the laboratory confirmed influenza infection among the hospitalized children.   Results   Of the enrolled 1 459 hospitalized children, 204(14.0%) were lab-confirmed influenza cases. The ECDC definition had the highest sensitivity(91.7%, 95% CI: 87.9%-95.5%) but the lowest specificity(44.6%, 95% CI: 41.9%-47.4%). The WHO definition had the lowest specificity(70.6%, 95% CI: 64.3%-76.8%). China's definition was the most discriminant definition with relatively high sensitivity(91.2%, 95% CI: 87.3%-95.1%) and specificity(51.5%, 95% CI: 48.8%-54.3%), and its positive area under curve value(71.2%, 95% CI: 67.9%-74.5%) was the highest. Multivariate analysis model showed that the detection rate of influenza virus in children with fever(≥38 ℃) was higher than that in children without fever(OR=7.03, 95% CI:3.89-12.70).   Conclusions   It is suggested to adopt China's ILI definition to get better output during influenza surveillance among hospitalized children.
The epidemic trend and influencing factors of diarrhea in children under 5 years old in Nepal based on the demographic and health survey data
LI Rui-xue, LAI Ying-si, FENG Chen-yang, HAO Yuan-tao
2020, 24(1): 37-40. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.008
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  Objective   To describe the current situation of diarrhea in children under five years old in Nepal and to explore its influencing factors.   Methods   Data were collected from the open-access database, Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys in 2006, 2011 and 2016. Chi-square(χ2) and Wilcoxon rank sum test were used to compare difference of potential risk factors between groups with and without diarrhea. Multiple Logistic regression model was adopted to identify significant influencing factors on diarrhea in children under five years old in Nepal.   Results   In 2006, 2011 and 2016, the incidence of diarrhea children under five in Nepal was 12.3%, 13.3% and 6.8%, respectively. Univariate analysis of the potential influencing factors showed that there were significant differences in the gender, water source, toilet facilities and fuel type, age of children, age of mother when she gave birth to the child and education years of mother and children with and without diarrhea(all P < 0.05). Multiple analysis revealed that improved toilet facilities(OR=0.874, 95% CI: 0.769-0.994, P=0.041) and the age of children(OR=0.613, 95% CI: 0.580-0.645, P < 0.001) were protective factors of childhood diarrhea, and the risk of boys was higher than that of girls(OR=1.277, 95% CI: 1.147-1.423, P < 0.001).   Conclusions   From 2006 to 2016, the incidence of diarrhea in children under five years old in Nepal was decreasing. Toilet facilities, age of children and gender of children were identified as the influencing factors of childhood diarrhea.
Study on the levels and risk factors of Vitamin D from preconception to pregnancy
ZHANG Yu, WU Chang-qian, MA Xiao-ying, LA Xue-na, ZHANG Yan, MAO Hong-fang, CAI Xu-shan, WU Shou-le, YIN Dong-xiao, JIANG Hong
2020, 24(1): 41-45. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.009
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  Objective   To investigate the levels of serum Vitamin D(VD) from preconception to pregnancy in Jiading district of Shanghai, and explore the risk factors of VD concentration deficiency in the second and third trimester of pregnancy.   Methods   A total of 94 women who planned to have antenatal care and delivery in Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Jiading district of Shanghai from September 2016 to December 2018 were recruited as the study participants. Chemiluminescent immunoassay(CLIA) was used to examine the concentration of women's serum VD from preconception to pregnancy. A total of 282 serum samples were detected.   Results   The prevalence of VD deficiency among 94 women from preconception to pregnancy were 40.4%, 57.4% and 48.9% respectively.   Results   of the mixed linear model showed that women who had dyed or permed hair within the past 1 year had significantly lower serum VD levels during pregnancy(P < 0.05), and women who often drank milk and ate deep-sea fish during pregnancy had higher VD levels during pregnancy(P < 0.05).   Conclusions   VD deficiency was common among women in Jiading district of Shanghai, and it should be emphasized to supplement VD before and during pregnancy.
Effects of smoking on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and respiratory symptoms
CHA Zhen-qiu, HE Yu-zhuo, XU Wei, CHEN Ye-ji, LIU Xin-yong, LIU Zhi-rong, YE Dong-qing
2020, 24(1): 46-51. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.010
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  Objective   To investigate the effects of smoking on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD) and respiratory symptoms.   Methods   A multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling strategy was used to select participants aged 40 or older in 5 surveillance points of Anhui Province. Questionnaires, body measurements and spirometry were used to collect data. Based on complex sampling design, Logistic regression model was conducted to analyze the effects of smoking on COPD and respiratory symptoms.   Results   The smokers who had smoked for ≥30 pack-years accounted for 13.9%(95% CI:10.3%-17.5%, P < 0.001) of the total population. And the smokers who had smoked for ≥40 years accounted for 8.5%(95%CI:6.7%-10.3%, P < 0.001) of the total population. On average, one smoker had smoked for 32.4 years(95%CI:31.2-33.5). Average daily cigarette consumption of daily smokers was 21.1 cigarettes(95% CI:19.6-22.7). As shown by multiple-variables Logistic regression analyses, the risk of COPD and respiratory symptoms increased with the increment of smoking pack-years and duration(all Ptrend < 0.001).   Conclusions   Smoking was associated with COPD and respiratory symptoms. The risk of developing COPD and respiratory symptoms was greater with the increment of smoking pack-years and duration.
Path analysis of the relationships among health knowledge of chronic diseases, lifestyle and utilization of workplace health services of teachers in a district of Beijing
LIU Jing-nan, JIANG Xue-wen, YAN Li-yan, LI Wei-hao, YANG Chao, YUN Qing-ping, CHANG Chun
2020, 24(1): 52-56. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.011
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  Objective   To understand the influence path of occupational health knowledge, behavior and lifestyle, and utilization of workplace health service on chronic diseases of teachers in a district of Beijing.   Method   A self-designed questionnaire was used among teachers in a district of Beijing through path analysis.   Results   The prevalence rate of chronic diseases in occupational population was 51.5%. The top three diseases were lumbar or spinal diseases(19.0%), hypertension(12.5%) and gastroenteritis(11.1%). The rate of overweight and obesity increased with age, and male teachers were higher than that of female teachers which was statistically significant(χ2=119.313, P < 0.001).Overweight-obesity, health related knowledge and utilization of workplace services made direct effects on chronic diseases. Healthy behaviors and lifestyles made indirect effects on chronic diseases by overweight-obesity.   Conclusions   The teachers' health in this district was not bad. It is recommended that we should pay attention to the population of teachers, especially the male so that to prevent and control the incidence of overweight and obesity, improve their health knowledge level and develop healthy habits, and increase the input of health resources in the workplace.
The mediating role of depression symptoms in childhood abuse and cyberbullying among college students
SONG Ya-qiong, WANG Li, MA Zi-fang, XUE Zhong-yu, LI Zhen-ya, TIAN Miao, WANG Qing-wen, CAO Xiao-qi
2020, 24(1): 57-61. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.012
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  Objective   Analyze the correlation of depression between the childhood abuse behavior and adulthood cyberbullying behavior, so as to discuss and provide evidences for preventing the cyberbullying behavior of college students.   Methods   A total of 4 040 college students were surveyed after multistage stratified cluster random sampling from 6 universities in Shanxi Province of China by using childhood trauma questionnaire, self-rating depression scale and cyberbullying scale.   Results   In the three dimensions of cyberbullying, cyber-verbal bullying behavior, identity concealing behavior and cyber-forgery fraud behavior, male students and only child students scored higher than that of female students and non-only child students(all P < 0.001). There was a positive correlation between childhood abuse, adult depression and cyberbullying(allP < 0.001). The mediation effect results showed that depression symptoms of college students were mediating between childhood abuse experience and cyberbullying behavior(the mediation effect result was 0.090, P < 0.001), the mediation effect contributed 12.16% to the total effect, the mediation model fitting index were χ2/df=39.96, RMSEA=0.101, CFI=0.948, TLI=0.924, SRMR=0.043.   Conclusions   Childhood abuse experience and adulthood depression are closely related to the implementation of cyberbullying behavior in college, and depression plays part of mediating role in predicting the implementation of cyberbullying behavior in college students who has childhood abuse experience.
A study on the transfer of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease among the elderly in Nanchang City
CAI Tian-pan, CHEN Ming, LONG Jing-wen, ZOU Ting-ting, LIU Bin, WU Lei
2020, 24(1): 62-66. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.013
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  Objective   To explore the incidence rate of mild cognitive impairment(MCI) among the elderly which transferred to Alzheimer disease(AD) and to analyze the related influencing factors.   Methods   10 urban communities were selected through stratified cluster sampling as the research sites where 361 patients with MCI were screened from 1 942 residents aged over 60 years old. Questionnaires and laboratory assays were used to collect data from subjects, including characteristics of demographic, life style, medical history, Alzheimer-associated neuronal thread protein, (AD7 C-(NTP)), amyloid β-protein 42(Aβ42) and amyloid β-protein 40(Aβ40), etc. Patients with MCI were followed up for three years to determine whether they progressed to AD.   Results   121 of 361 patients of MCI converted to AD, and the incidence rate of MCI to AD was 9.49% person-years. According to the results of Logistic regression analysis model, elder(80-89 years)(OR=3.651, 95% CI:1.295-10.297, P < 0.001), female(OR=2.603, 95% CI:1.136-5.966, P < 0.001), heavy drinking(OR=1.479, 95% CI:1.343-1.627, P < 0.001), increased ADL score(OR=1.790, 95% CI:1.443-2.220, P=0.031) and smoking(OR=1.157, 95% CI:1.091-1.224, P < 0.001) were the risky factors of the transition of MCI to AD. The increase of Moca score(OR=0.766, 95% CI:0.681-0.861, P < 0.001) was the protective factor of the transition.   Conclusions   We should strengthen our monitor on elder female MCI patients, and promote healthy lifestyles among the elders, encouraging them to actively participate in physical exercises and reading, in order to delay patients' transition of MCI to AD.
Physiological-psycho-social three dimensional aging index and scale construction
WEI Yu, LIU Xing, LI Xiang, HE Zi-qiang, WU Lei, ZHOU Jian-ming, YE Xing, HUANG He-lang
2020, 24(1): 67-72. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.014
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  Objective   Constructing physiological-psycho-social three dimensional aging index system, and scale to provide a basis for evaluating the effects of human aging and anti-aging measures.   Methods   Evaluation, modification and determination of the second and third level indexed by Delphi and principal component analysis and other methods. The weight of each index was weighted by the analytic hierarchy process, and the reliability and validity were calculated on the basis of the preliminary scale. A large sample of empirical studied to determine the aging of different age groups standardized score distribution table. The best model for judging functional age was sought, based on a variety of biostatistical models.   Results   The aging scale was constructed by three levels, the first level included 3 indicators, the second level had 10 indicators, the third level included 51 indicators, and adopted by expert certification the national society. 3 184 valid questionnaires were obtained through epidemiological investigation, the average total score of aging was(46.93±11.07) points, and the scores of aging were positively correlated with age(r=0.785, P < 0.001). The average scores of aging in each dimension were different and the difference was statistically significant(allP < 0.001), and each dimension had significant difference with age. The growth model(R2=0.635) was selected, the curve of the relationship between the score of aging and age was fitted.   Conclusions   The three-dimensional human aging scale was scientific, feasible, and has good reliability and validity. The empirical results show that the comprehensive score of aging increase with age, and show certain characteristics and laws on the curve.
Comparison on predictive capacity of ARIMA model and LSTM model for incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang
GAO Qiu-ju, ZHOU Yu-chang, ZHAO Shu-qing, ZHANG Shi-yong
2020, 24(1): 73-78. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.015
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  Objective   To predict the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD) in Shijiazhuang using the multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) and long short term memory(LSTM) model, lay theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of HFMD.   Methods   Multiple seasonal ARIMA model and LSTM model were established separately by using Eviews 8.0 and python 3.7.1 according to the data of monthly incidence of HFMD from January 2013 to May 2018 in Shijiazhuang, and the data from June 2018 to May 2019 were used to verify the prediction precision of model. Finally, the monthly incidence from June to August 2019 was predicted.   Results   Based on the monthly incidence from January 2013 to May 2018, the optimal models, ARIMA(1, 0, 0)×(1, 1, 2)12 and LSTM model were established. Mean absolute percentage of error(MAPE) of ARIMA and LSTM model were 22.14 and 10.03 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June to December 2018, while MAPE of ARIMA and LSTM model were 43.84 and 25.26 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June 2018 to May 2019. These results indicated that LSTM model was superior to ARIMA model in model fitting degree and predicting accuracy, which was relatively consistent with the actual situation.   Conclusions   LSTM model is able to fit and predict the incidence trend of HFMD well in Shijiazhuang. It can provide guidance to HFMD epidemic prediction and alerting.
Using the hybrid model STL-ADABOOST-ESN for forecasting the monthly number of HIV patient in China
QIN Lan, CHEN Ji-jun, YU Guo-wei
2020, 24(1): 79-84. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.016
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  Objective   Based on the monthly number of human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) patient in China, this paper utilizes seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess(STL) and echo state network(ESN) under the integrated framework adaptive boosting(AdaBoost) to build a hybrid model, and uses it to forecast the epidemic situation in 2017.   Methods   From the official website of center of Chinese disease prevention and control, we collected the data concerning the monthly number of HIV infection in China from January 2013 to December 2016. Firstly, the time series was decomposed into seasonal and remainder components via STL. Then, the simple seasonal estimation method was used to model the seasonal component, and ADABOOST-ESN was employed to model the remainder component. Finally, the output values of two components are summed to obtain the forecasting results of the monthly number of HIV infection.   Results   The assessment indices including root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE), were used to evaluate the performance of model. The results showed that the values of RMSE and MAPE given by STL-ADABOOST-ESN were 164.083 and 1.842% respectively in training set, 359.404 and 3.776% respectively in test set. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of STL-ADABOOST-ESN was absolutely higher than other four models, including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA), ESN, ADABOOST-ESN, STL-ESN. The monthly number of HIV patient in 2017 was predicted between 5 654 and 8 497 via the proposed method.   Conclusions   The model STL-ADABOOST-ESN proposed by this paper has high prediction accuracy. The forecasting results showed that the annual number of HIV patient in 2017 will reach 92 040, which increased by 4.87 percentage compared to 2016. Therefore, it is imperative to implement stricter measures of HIV prevention and control in China.
Research progress of laboratory diagnostic methods of dengue virus
GONG Yuan-xin, GUO Hong-xia, YE Nan, QIU Min-yue, YANG Mao-cheng, LI Jin-tao
2020, 24(1): 85-89. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.017
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Dengue virus(DENV) has been identified by World Health Organization as a major public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions. In recent years, dengue outbreaks have become more and more frequent in the world. In 2019, dengue outbreaks of varying degrees have occurred in the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Chongqing City in China. The laboratory diagnostic method of DENV is of great significance to the prevention and control of dengue epidemic. Therefore, the methods and strategies of DENV laboratory diagnosis are reviewed in this paper. By reviewing the traditional diagnostic methods and looking forward to the emerging diagnostic strategies, this paper aims to provide a reference to select the appropriate laboratory diagnostic scheme for the outbreak of dengue.
Effect of diabetes mellitus and blood sugar status on treatment outcome of tuberculosis patients
YOU Nan-nan, LU Wei, ZHU Li-mei, LIU Qiao
2020, 24(1): 90-96. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.018
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Diabetes mellitus patients are at high risk of tuberculosis, and tuberculosis is one of the important reasons for inducing and aggravating acute complications of diabetes. At present, China is facing a serious dual epidemic of tuberculosis and diabetes, which has caused great harm to the health of our people, but also brought great burden to our social economy. In this paper, PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI and Wanfang data knowledge service platform were used to search the relevant literature. Research progress on the epidemiology of tuberculosis patients complicated with diabetes, the effect of diabetes and blood glucose on the treatment outcome of tuberculosis patients, and the mechanism of diabetes affecting the treatment outcome of tuberculosis patients were analyzed and summarized, and some references were provided for the treatment and management of tuberculosis patients in China in the future.
Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Beijing from 2015 to 2018
SHI Yun-ping, LI Gang, LIU Yang, WANG Chao, XIE Chun-yan, GAO Yan-lin
2020, 24(1): 97-100. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.019
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  Objective   To explore the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Beijing from 2015 to 2018.   Methods   Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the monitoring data of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases, and to describe the main characteristics of the diseases.   Results   Average annual reported incidence was 227.64/100 000, accounting for 36.24% of the total reports and deaths of notifiable infectious diseases. Class B and C respiratory infectious diseases showed a downward and upward trend respectively. The epidemic trend and risk population of the six major infectious diseases were different.   Conclusions   The incidence and mortality of legal respiratory infectious diseases in Beijing increases year by year due to the sharp increase of influenza from 2015 to 2018, and the responsibility of prevention and control is great. Respiratory infectious diseases have different epidemic season and predisposing population. Different prevention and control measures should be taken according to the different epidemic characteristics of different diseases.
Sexual behavior characteristics and influencing factors of gonorrhea patients in Yunnan Province
WANG Nan, ZHANG Wan-yue, GUO Yan, ZHANG Xiu-jie, ZHANG Xiao-bin, FANG Qing-yan, YANG Zhi-fang, CUI Wen-qing, HU Yi, SU Xing-fang, JIA Man-hong
2020, 24(1): 101-104. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.020
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Abstract:
  Objective   To investigate the sexual behavior types, condom use and influencing factors of gonorrhea patients in Yunnan Province, and to provide evidence for the adjustment of sexually transmitted disease(STD) prevention and control strategy.   Methods   A cross-sectional study was carried out to investigate gonorrhea patients in 14 STD clinics in 7 more prevalent prefectures(cities) of Yunnan Province. A questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the socio-demographic and sexual characteristics of the patients in a one-to-one way. Multiple Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of sexual behavior.   Results   A total of 179 cases of gonorrhea were investigated. The average age was(29.01±8.93) years old. 95.53%(171/179) patients were 40 years old and 88.27% were male patients(158/179). Unmarried patients accounted for 55.31%(99/179). Service and self-employed patients accounted for 34.64%(62/179) and 23.46%(42/179) respectively. The rate of sexual intercourse with opposite sex was 98.32%(176/179), the rate of men who have sex with men was 1.68%(3/179) and the rate of having more than two sexual partners was 27.93%(50/179). The rate of sexual intercourse between temporary partners, spouses/fixed partners and commercial partners were 53.07%(95/179), 37.99%(68/179) and 8.94%(16/179) respectively. Recent sexual activity had lower condom use rate, 17.89%(17/95), 19.12%(13/68) and 18.75%(3/16) respectively. The main ways for gonorrhea patients to make temporary partners were friend introductions or gatherings, accounting for 66.32%(63/95). Condom use in male patients was worse than that in female patients(OR=0.234, 95% CI: 0.084-0.656, P=0.006).   Conclusions   The patients with gonorrhea were mainly unmarried young adults. The main risk behaviors were unprotected behaviors between heterosexual temporary and spouse/fixed sexual partners. The condom use consciousness was generally low. The promotion of safe sex education for young adults should be further strengthened, with special attention to the use of condoms for temporary sexual behavior and spouse/fixed sexual intercourse.
Socio-cultural factors influencing the buying commercial homosexual sex behaviors among young homosexual/bisexual men
HU Jian, HE Meng-qin
2020, 24(1): 105-108. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.021
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Abstract:
  Objective   To investigate the buying commercial homosexual sex behaviors among young gay men/bisexual men, and analyze the socio-cultural factors influencing the buying commercial homosexual sex behaviors.   Methods   A cross-sectional study was performed on risk sexual behaviors for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS) with an anonymous questionnaire among 824 young homosexual/bisexual men in Guiyang City, Zunyi City, Anshun City and Tongren City of Guizhou Province in 2016. Respondents were selected by a classified snowball sampling method combined with an interview at AIDS voluntary consultation and testing clinics.   Results   About 7.8%(95% CI:5.9%-9.6%)of respondents reported the buying commercial homosexual sex behaviors in the last year. The report rate was 13.0% for homosexual men, higher than 5.7% for bisexual men(P < 0.001). The influencing factors of the buying commercial homosexual sex behaviors were average monthly income(OR=6.54, P=0.005), age(OR=3.59, P=0.011), age of liking the same-sex(OR=2.85, P=0.004), marital status(OR=2.62, P=0.005), household registration(OR=2.38, P=0.011), increased risk of oral sex(OR=0.42, P=0.019), possibility of HIV infection(P < 0.005), and the dusckisure of sexual orientation(OR=0.17, P=0.001).   Conclusions   Young homosexual/bisexual men, especially bisexual men, had a higher report rate of the buying commercial homosexual sex behaviors. The socio-cultural factors influencing the buying commercial homosexual sex behaviors included age of liking the same-sex, increased risk of oral sex, possibility of HIV infection, and the disclosure of sexual orientation.
Prevalence and influencing factors of depression and anxiety among 322 pregnant women in Jianyang City
MA Xin-ya, YANG Dan-dan, XU Yao-ming, LUAN Rong-sheng, GAO Zhe-fei, LI Si-yi, FAN Jian-ping, ZHANG Wen-qiang, ZHOU Zong-lei
2020, 24(1): 109-113. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.022
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Abstract:
  Objective   To analyze the prevalence and influencing factors of anxiety and depression among pregnant women in Jianyang City.   Methods   Convenience sampling method was used to select 322 pregnant women in Jianyang Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Jianyang City. The depression and anxiety of the participants were measured with self-rating anxiety scale(SAS) and self-rating depression scale(SDS), and the degree of social support was measured with social support rating scale(SSRS). Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between anxiety, depression and social support. The chi square(χ2) test and the non-conditional Logistic regression model were used to analyze the influencing factors of anxiety and depression.   Results   Anxiety rate and depression rate of pregnant women in Jianyang city were 5.3% and 5.6% respectively. There was a negative correlation between anxiety, depression and social support(P < 0.05). Absence of prenatal examination(OR=4.554, 95% CI: 1.063-19.510) was a risk factor for anxiety among pregnant women in Jianyang City. Late pregnancy(OR=5.381, 95% CI: 1.422-20.363) and medium degree of social support(OR=4.150, 95% CI: 1.198-14.375) were risk factors for depression among pregnant women in Jianyang City. Junior high school(OR=0.015, 95% CI: 0.001-0.275), high school or technical secondary school(OR=0.004, 95% CI: 0.001-0.128), junior college or above(OR=0.053, 95% CI: 0.003-0.851) were protective factors for depression.   Conclusions   The prevelance of anxiety and depression in pregnant women cannot be ignored. It is important to carry out mental health intervention according to the above factors.
Analysis of prognosis and influencing factors of 1737 cases of pediatric burns in a hospital of Anhui from 2013 to 2017
JIANG Wei, MENG Cheng-ying, JIANG Zhi-yong, DUAN Sheng-liang, WANG Huan, YU You-xin, SUN Ye-xiang, HU De-lin
2020, 24(1): 114-117. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.023
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Abstract:
  Objective   To analyze the prognosis of pediatric burns and its influencing factors.   Methods   Clinical data of 1 737 children with burns from January 2013 to December 2017 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University was analyzed by retrospective method. The demographic, clinical features, and related factors affecting prognosis.   Results   Log-binominal regression model showed that the care rate was higher in children aged 1-and 3-compared with children aged 7-12(all P < 0.05); Boiling water burns had a higher care rate than electric shock and flame burns(including chemical burn)(allP < 0.05); Moderate and severe burns had a higher care rate than heavy severe burns(allP < 0.05); The unhealed rate of pediatric burns in summer was higher than burned in winter(RR=0.861, 95% CI:0.690-1.074); Children without complications had a higher care rate(P < 0.05); Children lived in rural areas have a higher unhealed rate than lived in urban areas(RR=0.713, 95% CI:0.618-0.824).   Conclusions   The care rate of pediatric burns was 51.1%. Major influencing factors included children aged 7-12, burned by electric and flame(including chemical burns), burned severe extraordinarily, burned in summer, and with complications, lived in rural.
The"Cicero"of medicine:Aulus Cornelius Celsus
BAO Yu-qing, YE Dong-qing
2020, 24(1): 118-121. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.01.024
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Abstract:
Aulus Cornelius Celsus(BC 25-AD 50), an ancient Roman Latin writer and compiler of encyclopedias, has been known as the "Cicero of medicine". Celsus spread a lot of Greek scientific knowledge in beautiful Latin, published a treatise on medicine in a popular and concise way. Celsus published a book called De Medicina, which opened the history of modern pathology. This book had strong practicability and made a clear distinction between food therapy, drug therapy and surgery, which had a systematic influence on the development of western medicine. Celsus put forword primary prevention and held the view of that diet was the definitive treatment. He also discussed the empiricism and rationalism of medicine, which focused on individualized treatment to achieve the best results.

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