The fall injury cases of urban and rural areas for minors in Jiangsu Province: a time-series prediction and analysis, 2006-2014

Objective To establish a predictive model of fall injury of minors in urban and rural areas in Jiangsu Province, and predict the occurrence of fall injury in urban and rural areas in order to offer reference of preventing and controlling minors fall injury. Methods The minors fall cases of urban and rural areas in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2014 were collected and grouped by monthly occurrence. The data from 2006 to 2013 was used as the fitting samples, and the data for 2014 was used as the forecast samples. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA model) was established and analyzed by statistical software SPSS 18.0. Results Through the process of modeling, the ultimately fitting model was SARIMA(0,1,1) (0,1,1)₁₂ and SARIMA(0,1,1) (1,1,0)₁₂ for urban and rural areas, respectively. The model diagnosis showed the residual error was white noise, and the Box-Ljung test for the model showed Q statistic was not statistically significant, so the model fitted the data well. In 2014, the average relative error between predicted value and observed value was 11.89% in urban, the corresponding average relative error in rural was 2.10%. The predicted results of the two places were nearly in accordance with the observations. Conclusions SARIMA model could forecast accurately for the falls of minors cases in Jiangsu Province, thus it can provide reliable data base in order to prevent and control cases of fall injury of minors more timely and scientifically.