Epidemiological characteristics and trend of scarlet fever in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2016

Objective To understand the epidemic characteristics of scarlet fever in Shaanxi Province, to predict the incidence trend, and to provide scientific evidence for developing the reasonable prevention policy of the disease. Methods Descriptive epidemiologic method was used for analyzing the epidemic of scarlet fever in Shaanxi Province during 2010-2016, and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to forecast the incidence of scarlet fever in 2017-2018. Results A total of 10 881 scarlet fever cases were reported in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2016, and the average annual incidence was 4.13/100 000. The ratio of male to female was 1.52:1, those aged from 3 to 7 years accounted for 72.3% of the total cases. The incidence was the highest in children aged 5 years, the average annual incidence rate in Guanzhong area was significantly higher than that in Shaanbei and Shaannan. Among them, Xi'an has the largest number of cases and the highest annual average incidence rate, most cases concentrated from April to June and from November to January. ARIMA model forecasting should that the incidence of scarlet fever in Shaanxi Province would remain high in 2017-2018. Conclusions Kindergartens and schools are the high-risk places of scarlet fever, hence preschool children, pupils and scattered children should be the key prevention and control objects. 2017 and 2018 are still a period of high morbidity of scarlet fever in Shaanxi Province. therefore surveillance and control should be continually strengthened in the main epidemic area.