Temporal-spatial characteristic analysis of AIDS/HIV epidemic during 2011-2016 in China

Objective In this paper, passenger quantity, GDP per capita, population density and the number of beds per thousand were investigated to reflect the spatio-temporal trend of AIDS/HIV incidence of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2011 to 2016 in China, in order to provide a reference for controlling the spread of AIDS/HIV. Methods A geographically and temporally weighted Poisson regression model was established. The coefficient function was estimated and visualized according to locally linear geographical weighted regression method and iterative weighted least square estimation. Some spatio-temporal non-stationary properties of AIDS/HIV cases in different time and regions were studied. Result There existed the temporal and spatial characteristics and trend in the high-incidence areas. Macro factors with different times and regions had different influences on the number of AIDS/HIV cases. Conclusion Statistics for goodness of fit (R², AIC, MSE) showed GTWPR model was better than Poisson regression model, which could reflect spatio-temporal interaction and non-stationary characteristics. Result showed that the spatial and temporal distribution of AIDS/HIV epidemic was closely related to four macro factors.