Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of pertussis in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018

TAN Hui-yi; LI Chun-ying; XIAO Lan; LIU Fu-qiang; WU Cheng-qiu

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.005

Volume 24 Issue 11

Dec. 2020

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TAN Hui-yi, LI Chun-ying, XIAO Lan, LIU Fu-qiang, WU Cheng-qiu. Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of pertussis in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(11): 1263-1268, 1281. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.005

Citation:

TAN Hui-yi, LI Chun-ying, XIAO Lan, LIU Fu-qiang, WU Cheng-qiu. Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of pertussis in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(11): 1263-1268, 1281. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.005

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Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of pertussis in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.005

1.
School of Public Health, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China
2.
Public Health Emergency Response Office, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China

Funds:

Science and Health Joint Project of Hunan Natural Science Foundation 2019JJ80070

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Fu-qiang, E-mail:liufq2001@163.com; WU Cheng-qiu, E-mail:84669106@qq.com
Received Date: 2020-06-17
Rev Recd Date: 2020-09-10
Publish Date: 2020-11-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective Analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in Hunan Pro-vince from 2009 to 2018, and establishing an autoregressive moving average model, to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of pertussis. Methods The surveillance data of pertussis in Hunan Pro-vince during 2009-2019 were collected from the infectious disease reporting information management system, and the epidemiological characteristics of pertussis were analyzed. A prediction model was established based on the monthly incidence date fron January 2009 to December 2018, and the pertussis incidence of 2020 was predicted. Results 2 530 pertussis cases were reported in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018 with an average annual incidence of 0.371/100 000. The incidence of pertussis was relatively higher between May and September, which was lower between October and April of the next year. The incidence was higher in Loudi, Yiyang, Changsha and Chenzhou. The incidence of pertussis in male was higher than that in female, and the reported cases were mainly composed of scattered children, preschool children and students. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 0)₁₂ was the optimal prediction model, and the incidence of pertussis in 2019 was basically consistent with that predicted by the model. The incidence of pertussis predicted by ARIMA in 2020 was 7.642/100 000, which was higher than that in 2019. Conclusions Pertussis began to break out in Hunan Province in 2018, and the incidence continued increasing. The phenomenon of "pertussis recurrence" may exist in Hunan Province. ARIMA model was effective in predicting the short-term incidence trend of pertussis, and it was predicted that the incidence level will continue increasing in 2020, so the epidemic prevention and control strategy of pertussis should be adjusted according to the epidemiological characteristics and specific situations in Hunan Province.
- Pertussis,
- Epidemiological characteristics,
- ARIMA model,
- Prediction

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