Effect of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in QuJing: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis

SHEN Xiu-lian; ZHENG Er-da; HUANG Tian; PENG Xia; HE Ji-bo

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.007

Volume 24 Issue 11

Dec. 2020

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2020 > 24(11): 1275-1281

SHEN Xiu-lian, ZHENG Er-da, HUANG Tian, PENG Xia, HE Ji-bo. Effect of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in QuJing: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(11): 1275-1281. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.007

Citation:

SHEN Xiu-lian, ZHENG Er-da, HUANG Tian, PENG Xia, HE Ji-bo. Effect of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in QuJing: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(11): 1275-1281. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.007

Citation:

SHEN Xiu-lian, ZHENG Er-da, HUANG Tian, PENG Xia, HE Ji-bo. Effect of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in QuJing: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(11): 1275-1281. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.007

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Effect of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in QuJing: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.007

Center for Epidemic Surveillance /Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650022, China

Funds:

The Youth Project of Applied Basic Study in Yunnan Province 2018FD107

More Information

Corresponding author: HUANG Tian，E-mail:99600694@qq.com
Received Date: 2020-05-22
Rev Recd Date: 2020-08-14
Publish Date: 2020-11-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Qujing and its lag effect. Methods The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the delayed and cumulative effects of meteorological factors on incidence of HFMD in Qujing from 2017 to 2019. Results A total of 25 902 HFMD cases were reported in Qujing from 2017 to 2019. The daily number of HFMD cases was positively correlated with daily average temperature and rainfall, but negatively correlated with sunshine duration. Temperature was the most significant effect on the incidence of HFMD (r=0.51); The daily average temperature of about 20 ℃ had the greatest impact on HFMD (RR=1.408, 95% CI: 1.064-1.864, P=0.017); The daily average temperature without delay had the greatest influence on HFMD, and then gradually decreased until disappeared. Conclusions Temperature is an important influencing factor of HFMD in Qujing, and its influence has obvious lag effect. The lag effect of different temperature on different population is obviously different, and the effect of high temperature is more significant.
- Hand, food, and mouth disease,
- Distributed lag non-linear model,
- Temperature

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References(19)

References

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