Lag effect of temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province

MAO Qian; LIU Yu-jie; WANG Zhe; GUAN Pei-xia; XIAO Yu-fei; ZHU Gao-pei; MENG Wei-jing; WANG Su-zhen; SHI Fu-yan

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.04.007

Volume 25 Issue 4

May 2021

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2021 > 25(4): 405-410

MAO Qian, LIU Yu-jie, WANG Zhe, GUAN Pei-xia, XIAO Yu-fei, ZHU Gao-pei, MENG Wei-jing, WANG Su-zhen, SHI Fu-yan. Lag effect of temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(4): 405-410. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.04.007

Citation:

MAO Qian, LIU Yu-jie, WANG Zhe, GUAN Pei-xia, XIAO Yu-fei, ZHU Gao-pei, MENG Wei-jing, WANG Su-zhen, SHI Fu-yan. Lag effect of temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(4): 405-410. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.04.007

Citation:

MAO Qian, LIU Yu-jie, WANG Zhe, GUAN Pei-xia, XIAO Yu-fei, ZHU Gao-pei, MENG Wei-jing, WANG Su-zhen, SHI Fu-yan. Lag effect of temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(4): 405-410. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.04.007

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Lag effect of temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.04.007

1.
Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, China
2.
Student Affairs Office, School of Life Science and Technology, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81803337

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81872719

National Bureau of Statistics 2018LY79

Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province ZR2019MH034

Colleges and Universities Talent Introduction Program of Shandong Province 2019-6-156

Colleges and Universities Talent Introduction Program of Shandong Province Lu-Jiao

Doctor Starting Fund Project of Weifang Medical University 2017BSQD51

More Information

Corresponding author: SHI Fu-yan, E-mail: shifuyan@126.com
Received Date: 2020-07-27
Rev Recd Date: 2020-11-29

Available Online: 2021-05-11

Publish Date: 2021-04-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore the lag effect of daily average temperature on the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hunan Province and to provide scientific evidences for effective prevention of COVID-19. Methods The meteorological factors, the air quality factors and the data conincidence of COVID-19 reported in Hunan Province during January 21, 2020 to March 2, 2020 were collected. Spearman correlation and distributed lag non-linear model analysis were performed. Results A total of 1 018 COVID-19 cases were reported in Hunan Province. The distribution lag non-linear model results showed that the influence of daily average temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 presented a nonlinear relationship. The cumulative relative incidence risk of COVID-19 decreased with the increase of daily average temperature, and the lowest temperature risk of the patients was 0 ℃. Both cold temperature and hot temperature increased incidence risk of COVID-19. It was indicated that the hot effects were immediate, however, the cold effects with obvious lag effect persisted up to 12 days. The highest relative risk of COVID-19 incidence was associated with lag 8-day daily average temperature of -5 ℃(RR=2.20, 95% CI=1.16-4.19). The influence of high temperature(10 ℃) was more significant than that of low temperature(6 ℃). Conclusion The daily average temperature, especially cold or hot temperature, was an important influencing factor of the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province, which had lag influence on the incidence of COVID-19. We suggested that some related preventive measures should be adopted to protect vulnerable population and severe patients to reduce the incidence risk.
- Distributional lag non-linear model,
- Daily average temperature,
- Daily incidence,
- COVID-19

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References(18)

References

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