Trend of tuberculosis incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the age-period-cohort model

JIANG Yuan-dong; TENG Zi-hao; WANG Yue; HU Peng-yuan; XIANG Yang

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.11.007

Volume 26 Issue 11

Nov. 2022

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2022 > 26(11): 1275-1282

JIANG Yuan-dong, TENG Zi-hao, WANG Yue, HU Peng-yuan, XIANG Yang. Trend of tuberculosis incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the age-period-cohort model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(11): 1275-1282. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.11.007

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JIANG Yuan-dong, TENG Zi-hao, WANG Yue, HU Peng-yuan, XIANG Yang. Trend of tuberculosis incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the age-period-cohort model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(11): 1275-1282. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.11.007

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Trend of tuberculosis incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the age-period-cohort model

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.11.007

JIANG Yuan-dong^{1, 2},
TENG Zi-hao¹,
WANG Yue^{1, 3},
HU Peng-yuan¹,
XIANG Yang^{1, 2
,
,}

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China
3.
Maternal and Child Health and Community Health Section, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Urumqi 830002, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81860589

State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia Fund SKL-HIDCA-2020-ER5

More Information

Corresponding author: XIANG Yang, E-mail: 893664450@qq.com
Received Date: 2021-11-23
Rev Recd Date: 2022-04-14

Available Online: 2022-12-21

Publish Date: 2022-11-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence in China in 1990-2019 and to explore the impact of age, period and cohort on tuberculosis risk. Methods The global health data exchange database was used to collect tuberculosis incidence data from Chinese residents aged 0- < 95 years old. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the changing trend of tuberculosis incidence in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age effect, period effect and cohort effect on the risk of tuberculosis in China. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence of tuberculosis showed a downward trend in the whole population and in the subgroups of males and females. The age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 120.56/100 000 and 99.75/100 000 in 1990 to 56.08/100 000 and 30.60/100 000 in 2019, with an average annual decline rate of 2.60% and 3.98%, respectively. The results of the age-period-cohort model analysis showed that the age effect of tuberculosis incidence in China increased with age from 1990 to 2019, and reached the highest risk at the age of 90- < 95 years old. The RR of males and females were 2.50 (95% CI: 2.33-2.69) and 1.93 (95% CI: 1.76-2.12), respectively. The period effect gradually decreased with the passage of time, and the RR value of incidence risk decreased from [male: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.08-1.17); female: 1.58 (95% CI: 1.51-1.65)] in 1990 to [male: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83); female: 0.61 (95% CI: 0.57-0.65)] in 2019. The cohort effect showed that people who were born later have a lower risk of developing the disease. Conclusions The incidence of tuberculosis in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. On the whole, the risk of tuberculosis increased with the increase in age. The farther away from the contemporary period, the higher the risk of people being born earlier. It is suggested that TB screening should be focused on infants, college students, men, the elderly, and other groups. Colleges and universities across the country should carry out more lectures on TB health knowledge, and relevant government departments should use a variety of ways to publicize TB health knowledge to the public.
- Tuberculosis,
- Incidence,
- Changing trend,
- Age-period-cohort model

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References(26)

References

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