Analysis on association and lag effects of environmental factors on incidence of influenza like illness in Huzhou based on the distribution lag nonlinear model

XU Ao; LIU Guangtao; LIU Yan; ZHANG Peng; WANG Weibing

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.007

Volume 27 Issue 7

Jul. 2023

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XU Ao, LIU Guangtao, LIU Yan, ZHANG Peng, WANG Weibing. Analysis on association and lag effects of environmental factors on incidence of influenza like illness in Huzhou based on the distribution lag nonlinear model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(7): 783-787. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.007

Citation:

XU Ao, LIU Guangtao, LIU Yan, ZHANG Peng, WANG Weibing. Analysis on association and lag effects of environmental factors on incidence of influenza like illness in Huzhou based on the distribution lag nonlinear model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(7): 783-787. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.007

Citation:

XU Ao, LIU Guangtao, LIU Yan, ZHANG Peng, WANG Weibing. Analysis on association and lag effects of environmental factors on incidence of influenza like illness in Huzhou based on the distribution lag nonlinear model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2023, 27(7): 783-787. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.007

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Analysis on association and lag effects of environmental factors on incidence of influenza like illness in Huzhou based on the distribution lag nonlinear model

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.007

XU Ao¹,
LIU Guangtao²,
LIU Yan²,
ZHANG Peng^{2
,
,},
WANG Weibing^{1
,
,}

1.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China
2.
Department of Infections Disease Control Department, Huzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huzhou 313099, China

XU Ao and LIU Guangtao contributed equally to this article

Funds:

Shanghai 2021 "Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan" Yangtze River Delta Science and Technology Innovation Community Field Project 21002411400

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Peng, E-mail: hzjkzp@163.com; WANG Weibing, E-mail: wwb@fudan.edu.cn
Received Date: 2022-10-27
Rev Recd Date: 2023-01-07

Available Online: 2023-08-08

Publish Date: 2023-07-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore the correlation and related lag effects of environmental factors on the prevalence of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Huzhou. Methods The weekly incidence data of ILI and environmental factors in Huzhou from 2015 to 2019 were collected. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was conducted to explore the specific relationship between ILI and various environmental factors and to quantify the cumulative lag effects of various environmental factors on ILI. Results A total of 156 078 ILI cases were reported in Huzhou from 2015 to 2019. Several environmental factors were associated with the incidence of ILI, including average temperature, temperature difference, sunshine duration, fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and SO₂. Among them, the low average temperature (0 ℃) and the low sunshine duration (0 h) were significantly associated with ILI between lag 0 to lag 2 and with a maximal effect at lag1 (RR=1.385, 95% CI: 1.110-1.745) and lag 2 (RR=1.228, 95% CI: 1.053-1.432), respectively. The high average temperature (30.0 ℃) showed the maximal effect at lag0 (RR=1.416, 95% CI: 1.171-1.713). The maximum effect of PM_2.5 and SO₂ was lag0 and lag1, respectively. Conclusions Among the environmental factors in Huzhou from 2015 to 2019, high temperature, low temperature, low sunshine duration, and high concentrations of PM_2.5 and SO₂ increase the risk of ILI, and there is a certain lag. Among them, the impact of high temperature mainly occurs at lag 0, while the impact of low temperature can last for 2 weeks.
- Influenza-like illness,
- Environmental factors,
- Distributed lag non-linear model

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References(16)

References

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