Analysis of mortality status and cause-eliminated life expectancy by region in China

TAO Mengmeng; TIAN Wei; LI Kunkun; CAO Wenjun

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.002

Volume 28 Issue 3

Mar. 2024

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TAO Mengmeng, TIAN Wei, LI Kunkun, CAO Wenjun. Analysis of mortality status and cause-eliminated life expectancy by region in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(3): 256-261. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.002

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TAO Mengmeng, TIAN Wei, LI Kunkun, CAO Wenjun. Analysis of mortality status and cause-eliminated life expectancy by region in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(3): 256-261. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.002

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Analysis of mortality status and cause-eliminated life expectancy by region in China

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.002

TAO Mengmeng¹,
TIAN Wei²,
LI Kunkun²,
CAO Wenjun^{1, 2, 3
,
,}

1.
Department of Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China
2.
Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China
3.
Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Changzhi Medical College, Changzhi 046013, China

Funds:

Scientific Research Project of Shanxi Provincial Health Commission 2023002

The "14th Five-Year Plan" Research project of Shanxi Provincial Department of Education GH-220226

More Information

Corresponding author: CAO Wenjun, E-mail: wjcao16@czmc.edu.cn
Received Date: 2023-09-20
Rev Recd Date: 2024-01-05

Available Online: 2024-04-08

Publish Date: 2024-03-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the incidence time trend of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in China from 1990 to 2019, evaluate its age, period and cohort effect, and predict the incidence of chronic kidney disease in China from 2020 to 2034, so as to provide reference for relevant prevention and treatment policies and measures of CKD. Methods Based on the data of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019), the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend change of chronic kidney disease in different genders, and the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated. With the help of age-period-cohort model, the influence of age, period and cohort factors on the incidence of CKD in different sexes was analyzed. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence and number of CKD in different gender from 2020 to 2034. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate of CKD in the entire population, as well as among men and women in China, demonstrated an overall upward trajectory (AAPC=0.30%, 0.30%, 0.29%, all P < 0.001). Notably, there was an irregular variation observed in women during the years 1993-1996 (APC=-0.54%, P=0.073), with females exhibiting a higher incidence rate than males. However, the incidence rate in males has escalated at a significantly higher pace than that in females in recent years. The fluctuations in chronic kidney disease incidence in China were influenced by age, period, and cohort factors (all P < 0.001). The overall risk of CKD increased with age, experiencing a notable rise after the age of 60. Furthermore, the incidence continued to rise post-1995, associated with birth cohorts before 2005, and demonstrated a decline after 2005. Projections for the period from 2020 to 2034 anticipate an upward trend in the standardized incidence rate and the number of cases of chronic kidney disease in China, with a more pronounced increase among males compared to females. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate and the number of cases of CKD in China demonstrated a continuous upward trend. It is advisable to bolster preventive measures for the elderly and high-risk populations, particularly individuals with hypertension and diabetes. Moreover, careful consideration should be given to the nutritional intake and health assessments of infants and young children.
- Mortality,
- Rank order of death causes,
- Life expectancy,
- Trend

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References(19)

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