Study on the epidemic trend of Omicron in Shanghai based on the reproduction number

WANG Zihan; XU Mengxia; FANG Liqun; ZHANG Yong

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.013

Volume 28 Issue 3

Mar. 2024

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WANG Zihan, XU Mengxia, FANG Liqun, ZHANG Yong. Study on the epidemic trend of Omicron in Shanghai based on the reproduction number[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(3): 329-334. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.013

Citation:

WANG Zihan, XU Mengxia, FANG Liqun, ZHANG Yong. Study on the epidemic trend of Omicron in Shanghai based on the reproduction number[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(3): 329-334. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.013

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Study on the epidemic trend of Omicron in Shanghai based on the reproduction number

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.013

1.
School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2.
Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Beijing 100071, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 11501035

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Yong, E-mail: zhangyong@bnu.edu.cn
Received Date: 2022-06-07
Rev Recd Date: 2022-09-24

Available Online: 2024-04-08

Publish Date: 2024-03-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To study the epidemic trend of Omicron in Shanghai as of May 9, 2022 by estimating the early reproduction number (R) before closed management and the subsequent changes of effective reproduction number (R_t). Methods Exponential growth method, maximum likelihood method and next generation matrix method were used to estimate R, and Bayesian method, Time-Dependent and New Time-Varying were used to estimate R_t. Results As of March 29, 2022, the growth of Omicron epidemic in Shanghai followed the exponential growth. The early reproduction number R estimated by three methods was 2.36(95% CI: 2.33-2.38), 2.14(95% CI: 2.11-2.18) and 2.29(95% CI: 2.22-2.38), respectively. Conclusion s As the values of R were relatively large, the early epidemic situation in Shanghai was severe. The turning point of the epidemic was on April 7, and the implementation of sealing and control management measures had effectively slowed down the increment of the epidemic cases. Among the methods for calculating the R_t, the Time-Dependent and New Time-Varying can quickly respond to the dynamic trend of the epidemic, while the Bayesian method was relatively slow. Besides, when the reported data fluctuated greatly, the denominator would be zero, thus R_t would be unable to calculate.
- COVID-19,
- Omicron,
- Reproduction number

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References(12)

References

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