Study on the trend analysis and forecast of the prevalence of three types of unintentional injuries among people under 20 years of age in China, 1990-2021

ZHOU Jiyu; WANG Shihong; WANG Yongjie; CHEN Hao; CHEN Chanjin; ZHANG Zhiyi; ZHANG Zewu; KONG Danli; DING Yuanlin

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.010

Volume 29 Issue 8

Aug. 2025

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2025 > 29(8): 930-936

ZHOU Jiyu, WANG Shihong, WANG Yongjie, CHEN Hao, CHEN Chanjin, ZHANG Zhiyi, ZHANG Zewu, KONG Danli, DING Yuanlin. Study on the trend analysis and forecast of the prevalence of three types of unintentional injuries among people under 20 years of age in China, 1990-2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 930-936. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.010

Citation:

ZHOU Jiyu, WANG Shihong, WANG Yongjie, CHEN Hao, CHEN Chanjin, ZHANG Zhiyi, ZHANG Zewu, KONG Danli, DING Yuanlin. Study on the trend analysis and forecast of the prevalence of three types of unintentional injuries among people under 20 years of age in China, 1990-2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 930-936. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.010

Citation:

ZHOU Jiyu, WANG Shihong, WANG Yongjie, CHEN Hao, CHEN Chanjin, ZHANG Zhiyi, ZHANG Zewu, KONG Danli, DING Yuanlin. Study on the trend analysis and forecast of the prevalence of three types of unintentional injuries among people under 20 years of age in China, 1990-2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(8): 930-936. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.010

PDF( 0 KB)

Study on the trend analysis and forecast of the prevalence of three types of unintentional injuries among people under 20 years of age in China, 1990-2021

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.08.010

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
2.
Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Dongguan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523003, China

Funds:

2022 Annual University-Level Undergraduate Teaching Quality and Teaching Reform Engineering Projects 1JG22125

2022 Annual University-Level Undergraduate Teaching Quality and Teaching Reform Engineering Projects 1JG22133

2022 Annual University-Level Undergraduate Teaching Quality and Teaching Reform Engineering Projects 1JG24135

Guangdong Medical University Clinical + Basic Science and Technology Innovation Special Plan GDMULCJC2024111

Guangdong Medical University Clinical + Basic Science and Technology Innovation Special Plan GDMULCJC2025046

Guangdong Medical University Clinical + Basic Science and Technology Innovation Special Plan GDMULCJC2025047

Guangdong Medical University "Strengthening and Supplementing" Major Achievement Cultivation Projects GDMU009

2024 Guangdong Medical University University-Level College Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Projects 2024115

2024 Guangdong Medical University University-Level College Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Projects 2024176

Guangdong Medical University Higher Education Teaching Research Projects 2JY24023

Guangdong Medical University Higher Education Teaching Research Projects 2JY24026

More Information

Corresponding author: KONG Danli, E-mail: gdmckdl@163.com; DING Yuanlin, E-mail: gdmusbd@gdmu.edu.cn
Received Date: 2025-03-18
Rev Recd Date: 2025-06-29
Publish Date: 2025-08-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of three types of unintentional injuries falls, drowning, and [fire, heat, and hot objects injury (FHHI)] in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2032, providing a reference for formulating corresponding prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, data on the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALYs rate of falls, drowning, and FHHI in the population under 20 years old in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The annual estimated percentage change (EAPC) was used to analyze the trend of these three types of unintentional injuries, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALYs rate of these injuries from 2022 to 2032. Results From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of falls and FHHI in China′s population under 20 years old showed a downward trend, but the changes were not statistically significant (EAPC=-0.80%, -0.20%, P > 0.05), while the incidence of drowning showed a decreasing trend (EAPC=-4.30%, P < 0.05). The mortality rate and DALYs rate of the three types of injuries showed a downward trend (mortality rate EAPC=-3.44%, -5.92%, -7.60%, P < 0.05; DALYs rate EAPC=-3.15%, -6.01%, -7.32%, P < 0.05). In 2021, the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALYs rate of these three injuries were higher in males than in females. The highest incidence of falls and FHHI occurred in the 15- < 20 age group, while the highest incidence of drowning was observed in the 10- < 15 age group. ARIMA model predictions showed that from 2022 to 2032, the incidence of falls and drowning will continue to decrease, while the incidence of FHHI would increase. By 2032, the predicted incidence rates of these three injuries would be 1 968.51/100 000, 15.87/100 000, and 80.29/100 000, respectively. The predicted mortality rate and DALYs rate from 2022 to 2032 showed a downward trend for all three types of injuries, with the mortality rates in 2032 predicted to be 0.31/100 000, -2.18/100 000, and-0.68/100 000, and the DALYs rates predicted to be 68.91/100 000, -368.03/100 000, and-55.68/100 000. Conclusions From 2022 to 2032, the incidence of FHHI in China′s population under 20 years old is expected to increase, while the incidence of falls and drowning will decrease. The mortality rate and DALYs rate of all three types of unintentional injuries are also expected to decline. This suggests that greater attention should be paid to fire prevention for adolescents and children, along with strengthening safety education to protect the lives and health of young people and children.
- Falls,
- Drowning,
- Fire, heat, hot objects injuy,
- Unintentional injuries,
- Autoregressive integrated moving average model model

FullText(HTML)

References(12)

References

[1]	Yin XL, Dai WC, Du YK, et al. The injury mechanisms and injury pyramids among children and adolescents in Zhuhai City, China[J]. BMC Public Health, 2021, 21(1): 436. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10425-4.
[2]	Razik MA, Alslimah FA, Alghamdi KS, et al. The severity of fall injuries in Saudi Arabia: a cross-sectional study[J]. Pan Afr Med J, 2020, 36: 152. DOI: 10.11604/pamj.2020.36.152.23944.
[3]	Hur DG, Ren AL, Yue TM, et al. Pediatric trauma center access, regional injury burden, and socioeconomic disadvantage[J]. JAMA Surg, 2024, 159(7): 832-833. DOI: 10.1001/jamasurg.2024.0962.
[4]	Mekkodathil A, El-Menyar A, Kanbar A, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of fall-related injuries: a retrospective study[J]. BMC Public Health, 2020, 20(1): 1186. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-09268-2.
[5]	Cho H, Heijnen MJH, Craig BA, et al. Falls in young adults: the effect of sex, physical activity, and prescription medications[J]. PLoS One, 2021, 16(4): e0250360. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250360.
[6]	Park SH, Min JY, Cha WC, et al. National surveillance of injury in children and adolescents in the republic of Korea: 2011-2017[J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2020, 17(23): 9132. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17239132.
[7]	Peden AE, Franklin RC, Clemens T. Can child drowning be eradicated? A compelling case for continued investment in prevention[J]. Acta Paediatr, 2021, 110(7): 2126-2133. DOI: 10.1111/apa.15618.
[8]	Tang CTL, Sing CW, Kwok TCY, et al. Secular trends in fall-related hospitalizations in adolescents, youth and adults: a population-based study[J]. Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2021, 12: 100183. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100183.
[9]	Janson S. Drowning is a complex but preventable cause of child mortality[J]. Acta Paediatr, 2021, 110(7): 1981-1982. DOI: 10.1111/apa.15674.
[10]	Semple-Hess J, Campwala R. Pediatric submersion injuries: emergency care and resuscitation[J]. Pediatr Emerg Med Pract, 2022, 19(6 Suppl): 1-46.
[11]	Evans J, Javaid AA, Scarrott E, et al. Fifteen-minute consultation: drowning in children[J]. Arch Dis Child Educ Pract Ed, 2021, 106(2): 88-93. DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2020-318823.
[12]	Celen R, Ozaydin T, Yorulmaz A. Determination of risk factors associated with unintentional injury in children: case-control study[J]. Public Health Nurs, 2023, 40(2): 250-257. DOI: 10.1111/phn.13165.