Transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in Henan province

ZHANG Yan-yang; LI Jun; YANG Kai-chao; WANG San-feng; ZHAO Dong-yang; XIAO Zhan-pei; SHI Lu-bin; JI Yan-fang; CHEN Shuai-yin

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.008

Volume 24 Issue 6

Jul. 2020

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2020 > 24(6): 660-664

ZHANG Yan-yang, LI Jun, YANG Kai-chao, WANG San-feng, ZHAO Dong-yang, XIAO Zhan-pei, SHI Lu-bin, JI Yan-fang, CHEN Shuai-yin. Transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in Henan province[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(6): 660-664. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.008

Citation:

ZHANG Yan-yang, LI Jun, YANG Kai-chao, WANG San-feng, ZHAO Dong-yang, XIAO Zhan-pei, SHI Lu-bin, JI Yan-fang, CHEN Shuai-yin. Transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in Henan province[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(6): 660-664. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.008

Citation:

ZHANG Yan-yang, LI Jun, YANG Kai-chao, WANG San-feng, ZHAO Dong-yang, XIAO Zhan-pei, SHI Lu-bin, JI Yan-fang, CHEN Shuai-yin. Transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in Henan province[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2020, 24(6): 660-664. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.008

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Transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in Henan province

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.008

1.
Immunization Planning Institute, Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China
2.
Immunization Planning Institute, Jiaozno city Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiaozuo 454100, China
3.
Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China
4.
Department of epidemiology, College of public health, Zhengzhou university, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Funds: Study on the Epidemiology Characteristics and Control Measures of Coronavirus Disease 2019(201100310800)

More Information

Corresponding author: CHEN Shuai-yin, E-mail:sychen@zzu.edu.cn
Received Date: 2020-04-02
Rev Recd Date: 2020-04-29
Publish Date: 2020-06-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore the epidemic trend of Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) and provide basis for prevention and control through establishing transmission dynamics model of COVID-19 in Henan province. Methods The epidemic data was collected through official website of Henan Health Commission from January 21, 2019 to February 23, 2020, the population data was obtained from Henan Province Statistical Yearbook. The descriptive epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 were analyzed by Excel 2007 and MapInfo7.0. The transmission dynamics model of COVID-19 was established by MATLAB 7.0. Results The accumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 had reached 1271 as of February 23, 2020 in Henan Province, and the reported incidence was about 1.16 per 100 000. Confirmed cases were mainly from Xinyang, Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Zhumadian. According to SEIR model, the average of Basic Reproduction Number(R ₀) was about 2.41. The peak value of COVID-19 epidemic was reduced by 55%, the appearance time of peak value was delayed by 3 days after Henan Province's a series of prevention and control measures. Conclusion A fast spread trend was observed in the early COVID-19 epidemic of Henan Province. Through a series of prevention and control measures, the Effective Reproduction(Re) gradually decreased and the epidemic of COVID-19 was gradually under control in Henan Province.
- Coronavirus disease 2019,
- Transmission dynamics model,
- Epidemiological chara-cteristics

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References(14)

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